1/10/08: UCSB at UCI

UCSB Gauchos (12-3) vs. UC-Irvine Anteaters (5-9)
January 10, 2008, 7:05 p.m. (PST)



Tonight, the Gauchos look to get back on track after their defeat at the hands of CSUN. While I said I wouldn't be surprise if UCSB lost to CSUN because of their depth; I was still very surprised when I saw the boxscore after the game. I'm willing to chalk it up to one bad-ass performance by one Mr. Tresvant. Nothing like getting UCI, with their $150,000 budget, to get you back on track.

Here's the tale of the tape -
UCSB: http://www.kenpom.com/sr.php?team=UC%20Santa%20Barbara
UCI: http://www.kenpom.com/sr.php?team=UC%20Irvine

As promised, we're going to break the game down utilizing the Four Factors (from Dean Oliver). The four factors are (1) Shooting %, (2) Offensive Rebounds, (3) Getting to the FT Line and Shooting a High %, and (4) Creating/Committing Turnovers.

Factor #1: Shooting %

UCSB 45.4 %
UCI 45.7%

Here, the edge goes slightly to UCI. I think it's so close that the FG % is inconsequential.

Factor #2: Offensive Rebounds (per game)

UCSB 9.8
UCI 8.4

Obviously, the edge goes to UCSB. They're getting fully one more offensive board per game than UCI is. UCSB needs to exploit the height advantage that they are going to have against UCI tonight. UCSB is clearly the taller team with more height at each of the positions.

Factor #3: Getting to the FT Line and Shooting a High %

UCSB 208-266, 78.2%
UCI 153-217, 70.5%

This is clearly where the game could be won. If UCSB gets to the line at the rate they are getting there and shoots their percentage, they'll have a huge advantage. I think we can give the advantage to UCSB.

Factor #4: Turnovers

UCSB 15.9, opponents 19.7
UCI 13.1, opponents 16.4

Again, the advantage goes to UCSB. I think UCSB should be able to force some more turnovers from these guys. They also need to be cognizant of how many turnovers they're committing (although, it comes with the territory). If they can force UCI into a few more turnovers than they're used to, this should be an immense advantage.

Conclusion: Do I really need to tell you? I like UCSB and I think that this is the perfect game to get back on track with. If they can stick to the averages and then some, this game won't be nearly as close as I think it might be. However, this is the Big West and if Bob Williams has shown us anything, it's that his coaching ability declines when he gets to the Big West. Must be the super crazy, super intense Big West. I'm hoping he proves me wrong tonight.

Also, we get to see how well these four factors play out. It would have been so much easier if there was five because then we'd have a majority. Oh well. Talk to you tomorrow.