1/10/08: UCSB at UCI

UCSB Gauchos (12-3) vs. UC-Irvine Anteaters (5-9)
January 10, 2008, 7:05 p.m. (PST)



Tonight, the Gauchos look to get back on track after their defeat at the hands of CSUN. While I said I wouldn't be surprise if UCSB lost to CSUN because of their depth; I was still very surprised when I saw the boxscore after the game. I'm willing to chalk it up to one bad-ass performance by one Mr. Tresvant. Nothing like getting UCI, with their $150,000 budget, to get you back on track.

Here's the tale of the tape -
UCSB: http://www.kenpom.com/sr.php?team=UC%20Santa%20Barbara
UCI: http://www.kenpom.com/sr.php?team=UC%20Irvine

As promised, we're going to break the game down utilizing the Four Factors (from Dean Oliver). The four factors are (1) Shooting %, (2) Offensive Rebounds, (3) Getting to the FT Line and Shooting a High %, and (4) Creating/Committing Turnovers.

Factor #1: Shooting %

UCSB 45.4 %
UCI 45.7%

Here, the edge goes slightly to UCI. I think it's so close that the FG % is inconsequential.

Factor #2: Offensive Rebounds (per game)

UCSB 9.8
UCI 8.4

Obviously, the edge goes to UCSB. They're getting fully one more offensive board per game than UCI is. UCSB needs to exploit the height advantage that they are going to have against UCI tonight. UCSB is clearly the taller team with more height at each of the positions.

Factor #3: Getting to the FT Line and Shooting a High %

UCSB 208-266, 78.2%
UCI 153-217, 70.5%

This is clearly where the game could be won. If UCSB gets to the line at the rate they are getting there and shoots their percentage, they'll have a huge advantage. I think we can give the advantage to UCSB.

Factor #4: Turnovers

UCSB 15.9, opponents 19.7
UCI 13.1, opponents 16.4

Again, the advantage goes to UCSB. I think UCSB should be able to force some more turnovers from these guys. They also need to be cognizant of how many turnovers they're committing (although, it comes with the territory). If they can force UCI into a few more turnovers than they're used to, this should be an immense advantage.

Conclusion: Do I really need to tell you? I like UCSB and I think that this is the perfect game to get back on track with. If they can stick to the averages and then some, this game won't be nearly as close as I think it might be. However, this is the Big West and if Bob Williams has shown us anything, it's that his coaching ability declines when he gets to the Big West. Must be the super crazy, super intense Big West. I'm hoping he proves me wrong tonight.

Also, we get to see how well these four factors play out. It would have been so much easier if there was five because then we'd have a majority. Oh well. Talk to you tomorrow.

Introducing the Four Factors

Oh yeah...you're impressed, admit. Last year, I read the book "Basketball On Paper," by Dean Oliver. I was impressed with his analysis. Although his data primarily translated to the NBA game, TGM is utilizing his "four crucial aspects of the game"(A clever nickname will be unveiled soon, feel free to submit ideas) for the college game and the Gauchos.

Oliver says that teams are good if they control four aspects of the game, which he calls his "four crucial aspects." Conversely, bad teams are bad because they don't control. We're going to experiment and see how well this translates to the Gauchos.

The Four Factors are:

1. Shooting percentage from the field
2. Getting offensive rebounds
3. Committing/Forcing turnovers
4. Going to the foul line a lot and making the shots

TGM is trying to make a chart to use for each game. If I can become technologically sophisticated in the next day or so, I'll get it up for the UCI game.

I think it will be interesting to see how this plays out. However, I took a look at some of the Gauchos games to see how well this works out. For example, in the Gauchos loss to CSUN they "won" two categories (FT, and Shooting %), "tied" one (Offensive rebounds) and "lost" the turnover battle.

In the matchup against LBSU, the Gauchos "won" three categories (Offensive rebounds, turnovers, and FT's), while "losing" only shooting %.

Lastly, against Eastern Washington, UCSB "won" two categories (shooting % and FT), "tied" turnovers and "lost" offensive rebounds.

As you can see, UCSB has to win at least two categories to win the game, and even then it's not guaranteed. Because I don't want to go through the entire schedule I can't confirm this, but I have a feeling that UCSB won at least two categories in each victory and probably three.

On the other hand, we might not be using this measures very long because they are pretty obvious. We'll give it a go and see what happens.

Go Gauchos!