January 26, 2008, 7:00 p.m. (PST)
UPDATE: channelsurfing.net says that they'll be carrying the game tonight. Be sure to open the link up in internet explorer. Enjoy the game!
Look for the Gauchos to get back on track tonight after the asswhippin' they took at the hands of the Pacific Tigers. This season has now taken on the familiar ring of seasons past. Bob Williams has built his team's record with some wimpy ass non-conference competition (and lost the games against the non-wimpy teams), gotten everyone's hopes up and just like a pin hitting a balloon, we've seriously deflated our expectations (yet again). January just wouldn't be the same without you Bob.
Now, don't mistake my disdain for Mr. Bob for overall Gaucho disdain. I've got love for the Gauchos. Shit, if I was rich (I wouldn't be writing this blog), I would give the new AD some pretty high incentives (multi-million dollars we're talking) to dump Bob after this season. Alas, I'm not rich and that is nothing more than a pipe dream. Bob is under contract for two more seasons, so get used to the highs and the lows baby!
Onto more important things, like the game tonight. Before we take a look at these stats, I want to point out something. UC-Davis has a crappy record, yes, but their stats are scary close to the Gauchos. Without further ado, let's get to it.
1. Field Goal %
UCSB: 46.1%
Davis: 44.4%
UCSB has a slight advantage over Davis in overall percentage, however, UCSB's true advantage is going to be at the three point line (isn't it always). On Thursday night, we saw just how important that advantage is to the Gauchos. They shot poorly from the three point line and it really hurt them (also, it didn't help to allow Pacific to shoot lights out).
UCSB shoots 43.4% from the three point line, good for second in the nation (look at the above chart to see their individual performance game-by-game, courtesy of statsheet.com). Just like Cal Poly, Davis is shooting a lower 3 point % (37%) while shooting it more often than the Gauchos. The key to the Gauchos success lays herein. Keep the Aggies at a low 3 point percentage and shoot a high percentage and your odds increase.
Just a thought. Since UCSB is shooting the three so well and not a great rebounding team, they should really consider borrowing a page from Rick Pitino. According to kenpom.com, the Gauchos are playing the 80th fastest pace in the nation at 70.3 possessions per game. If I was Bob Williams I would advocate Pitino's strategy of pushing the ball up the court and shooting the three. The Gauchos don't rebound particularly well and we shoot the three very well, so I say fire away.
2. Offensive Rebounding
UCSB: 9.6
Davis: 7.2
This stat always surprises me. It always seems that the Gauchos are out-rebounding their opponents statistically, but when they get to the game, they lose this battle 7 times out of 10. They're going to have take advantage of this edge because a lot of the other stats are even. Besides, a team that can't rebound is a team that gets eliminated early in the Big West Tournament.
3. Free Throws
UCSB: 248-315, 78.7%
Davis: 234-313, 74.8%
This is the closest free throw match-up the Gauchos have had to date (that I can recall). Davis has the 20th highest FT % in the country and they get to the line as much as UCSB.
Don't foul the Aggies when shooting. It looks like they're going to make us pay if we make that mistake.
4. Turnovers
UCSB: 15.8/game, 19/game opponents
Davis: 15.9/game, 15.2/game opponents
Above is UCSB's turnover average after each game, courtesy of statsheet.com. As you can see, they've been getting more each game than giving it away. This is a good thing.
Davis is averaging approximately a 1-1 ratio when it comes to turnovers. We need to keep their turnovers high and ours low (obvious) . However, not all is well on the home front. If you look at the chart above, our opponents turnover average has been decreasing game by game over the last couple weeks. UCSB must reverse this trend starting tonight.
Some final thoughts. Davis is playing at a pace of about 64 possessions per game. UCSB is playing at a pace of about 70 a game. Like I said above, I think the Gauchos need to start pushing the pace and shooting more threes. Basically, I'm convinced that it's their only chance to make the NCAA Tournament now. Pushing the pace will force Davis into this frenetic style, which doesn't really seem like they want to do.
As for this game, the stats indicate that it's going to be a close one. While I think the Gauchos on paper are better, having Bob Williams on the sideline has proven to be a major liability. We can beat the best teams in the conference (sort of), but lay an egg when we're supposed to win. If the Gauchos can pull this off, it's going to be close.
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