January 19, 2008, 7:00 p.m. (PST)
Tomorrow night, the Gauchos look to start up a new winning streak, courtesy of the Mustangs. After a one week lay-off, the Gauchos and their fans are ready for another impressive performance. In case you missed it, I profiled the State of the Big West (below) and I believe the Gauchos are ideally positioned to take over the top of the Big West. First, though, they have to take care of business.
Cal Poly students must be looking forward to this game. In fact, they're so excited that they left the friendly and exciting confines of San Luis Obispo to drive to UCSB on Tuesday night and write some clever phrases around the campus. To you the Cal Poly taggers I say, nice use of original phrases around campus. With taggings in chalk (I didn't know CPSU accepts 4th graders), seriously, who uses chalk? They must have been up all night coming up with UCSTD. Now I understand the intelligence of the Mustang student body. Here is another example of their clever work:
Here are the scouting reports for both teams, from kenpom.com -
UCSB: http://www.kenpom.com/sr.php?team=UC%20Santa%20Barbara
CPSU: http://www.kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Cal%20Poly
Let's look at the Four Factors:
1. Field Goal %
UCSB: 46.6%
CP: 39.6%
Clearly, UCSB has the advantage here. They're shooting a much more efficient percentage from the field than their opponents. UCSB's true advantage in the shooting % is from the 3 point line. Cal Poly is shooting an ice cold 29.7% from the field.
However, since conference play has started, both CP and UCSB have shot better than their season averages.
Hopefully, UCSB will sag off the perimeter and allow Cal Poly to shoot the trey all night long. Cal Poly has shot more threes this season than UCSB, so it looks like they have no problem shooting a low percentage. 40% of the Mustangs' total shots are threes. Of course, the risk of sagging back and allowing them to huck the three up is that they'll actually make a few, get hot and ride three point shooting to a victory. I'd be willing to take my chances that CP will shoot a poor percentage. If I was Bob Williams, I would not allow my players to get outside the three point line on defense once in the half court and challenge Cal Poly to beat you inside (and outside for that matter).
2. Offensive Rebounding
UCSB: 9.5/game
CP: 10/game
Since this stat is so even, we won't go into it. However, like I said above, I would pack my defense inside the arc and allow Cal Poly to shoot the three. An added advantage of this will be to keep our players closer to the hoop to rebound and prevent CP from getting second chance possessions.
3. FT's
UCSB: 223-285, 78.2%
CP: 192-305, 63%
If you're starting to see a trend with the shooting percentages for each team, you're not alone. What a surprise, Cal Poly isn't very good at shooting free throws either.
What does surprise me though is that Cal Poly has more free throw attempts than the Gauchos this season. That doesn't surprise me, but I'm surprised that a team who takes 40% of their shots from the three point line can get to the line more than the Gauchos. Without the benefit of seeing Cal Poly on film or in person, I'm going to assume that they're shooting threes and driving to the hole, making contact to get to the line.
Again, I'm not too worried about the 20 FT differential at all. UCSB has proven themselves to be excellent free throw shooters all season. If you put them on the line, they usually take care of business and make you pay.
4. Turnovers committed/forced
UCSB: 16/game, 19.4/game (opponents)
CP: 13.7/game, 16.3/game (opponents)
This stat line is misleading. Yes, UCSB averages more turnovers than Cal Poly. But, UCSB also plays at a (slightly) faster tempo than Cal Poly. The pressure they create is likely to create some turnovers when they have the ball.
If UCSB wants to be a better team, they're going to have to reduce their turnover %. Currently, kenpom.com lists the Gauchos as turning the ball over on 22.4% of their possessions. That seems really high to me (and inaccurate), but the stats don't lie, so we have to accept them. The good thing for the Gauchos is that it's January 18 and conference play has just started. The Gauchos have plenty of time to reduce the turnover %.
Verdict:
UCSB looks better in every match-up. While Cal Poly has some size, UCSB is bigger. I think the Gauchos make out well in this game if they pack the defense in and play their usually offensive style, they stand a chance of making this a two game win streak.
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