January 5, 2008, 7:00 p.m. (PST)
Tonight's match-up, according to kenpom.com, is going to be UCSB's 4th most difficult game of the season (by RPI).
CSUN is no slouch, so this game scares me a little bit. Their season averages show some nice offensive balance, with 4 players averaging over 10.0 points per game. Further, their top 8 players are all Seniors or Juniors. You can get into the heads of the young bucks, but with a team full of veteran experience, like CSUN, UCSB will have their hands full tonight.
Here are the scouting reports for each team (from kenpom.com);
UCSB: http://www.kenpom.com/sr.php?team=UC%20Santa%20Barbara
CSUN: http://www.kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Cal%20St.%20Northridge
CSUN plays at a faster tempo than the Gauchos, averaging about 77.5 possessions per 40 minute game. UCSB, on the other hand, is averaging about 70.9.
Most scary of all is the fact that CSUN is playing at the exact same efficiency as UCSB, 101.2 points per 100 possessions. CSUN rebounds well and shoots a better 2 point % per game than the Gauchos. While writing this right now, I'm convinced that CSUN is going to be a big test for the Gauchos tonight (no shit Sherlock).
UCSB possesses advantages against CSUN with the fact that they are better defensively than CSUN (CSUN is still pretty good though), shoot a better FT% and looks like a slightly better defensive team.
The problem lies with the fact that CSUN has such balance. In fact, I can't think of another Gaucho opponent (although I'm not thinking very hard), except UNC, that had better offensive balance from its players.
UCSB is going to have to stop at least two of CSUN's players tonight, especially J. Heard. Heard has taken a large amount of CSUN's possessions this season. If UCSB can keep him off balance, I believe it should throw off the rest of the game plan. Other than the usuals, limit turnovers, get some steals and get to the line, I think UCSB stands a good chance of winning this game.
I'm not in the prediction business, but I believe UCSB can win this game by at least 5 or 6 points. I think there are some good things in store for UCSB this season, but this will give us a good measure of where the Gauchos actually stand.
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