State of the Big West

Tonight, we're going to be looking at the Big West Conference and seeing what we can pick out of the stats that can help us get a better picture of what to expect down the road this season.

Below, you'll find the standings of the Big West Conference, with overall records in parentheses (as of January 15):

1. CSUN 4-0 (11-3)
2. CSUF 3-1 (9-5)
3. Pacific 2-1 (10-5)
4. UCI 2-1 (6-9)
5. UCSB 2-2 (12-4)
6. Davis 1-2 (5-9)
7. Cal Poly 1-3 (5-10)
8. LBSU 1-3 (4-11)
9. UCR 0-3 (2-11)

First, just an observation, but UCSB hasn't lost to any team currently in the bottom half of the league. The only team currently ahead of the Gauchos in the standings that they haven't played is Pacific. Obviously, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure it out, but the Gauchos are going to have to find a way to beat the teams they've lost to in the second go-round if we want to find the Gauchos in the NCAA Bracket on Selection Sunday.

Just looking at straight RPI numbers on Ken Pomeroy's site, the only team RPI-wise that we're close to is CSUN. In fact, they've overtaken us on kenpom with an RPI of 60, as compared to our RPI of 89. Our next closest RPI "competitor" is Pacific at 149. Obviously (again), the Gauchos are going to have to take out CSUN next time around to boost their RPI and (hopefully) run the table the rest of the way in Big West to get a favorable RPI and higher seeding if they win the Big West Tourney. However, those who don't learn from history are doomed to make the same mistakes (or however that quote goes). If history has taught me anything, it's not to expect the Gauchos to run the table. I am still confident in their ability to finish the regular season first. Also, don't forget the Bracket Buster match-up scheduled for February 23. If the Gauchos get back on a roll, they can land a favorable opponent. Win this game and that RPI starts to rise. Lose the game and you may as well turn the RPI into RIP, as in the Gauchos will be nothing higher than a 13 seed IF they can make the tournament.

Looking now at strength of schedule (SOS), it's clear that our conference plays a bunch of cupcakes in the non-conference. This only perpetuates the low RPI's. Teams don't want to play our conference, unless they're looking for an easy win and it doesn't do anything for their RPI if they lose. It's a lose-lose situation for them and win-win for us. However, this reminds of someone we can look to for inspiration. Pat Hill, the Fresno State football coach. I don't know if anyone remembers when David Carr was good in football (Seriously, he was at a point), but FSU was bursting onto the scene. Hill is truly a bulldog. That man has stated on multiple occasions that he will play any team, anywhere and at anytime.

That needs to be the Big West mantra. Of course, they might get steamrolled the first couple seasons they try this. After a while, though, you start to get competitive because of recruiting. You sell your players on the strong out-of-conference schedule that will make them battle hardened warriors come Big West play.

I digress, back to the SOS. Kudos to UCI for playing a manly schedule as compared to the rest of the Big West. Right now, their SOS sits at 73. Thats what games against Nevada, Mississippi State, Utah, Sam Houston St., Texas A&M and South Carolina will do to you. Nothing like a Monday morning QB, but maybe that's one part of the reason UCSB lost. UCI played a fairly demanding schedule with travel all over the US, playing teams in several of the BCS conferences. Maybe that's what did it, just a thought.

Now, we head to kenpom's stats. Let me digress for a minute. For those of you who like to get some good stats, click on the links to the side. By stats, I mean stats that you don't see in the boxscore. If that's the case, kenpom is the way to go.

First, we're going to look at offensive efficiency. UCSB is the fourth most efficient team in the conference from an offensive standpoint. For every 100 possessions, UCSB should score 102.8. By contrast, CSUF, the most efficient team in the conference scores 110.0 points every 100 possessions. Just for reference, the most efficient team in the country is Texas. They score 125.1 points per 100. The season average of all Division I schools is 100.7.

Save for CSUN, the offensive efficiency standings basically mirror the Big West standings. The most offensively efficient teams are at the top and worst are at the bottom.

Individually, Ivan Elliot is the Gauchos most efficient player, according to kenpom. Elliot comes in at a rating of 114.6 (306th in NCAA). Al Harris comes in at 110.6 (494). Devine, Powell and Pajevic all come in above 100. Everyone else is under 100. For the record, kenpom believes that anything above 110 is good, while anyone above 120 is excellent (provided that they are the workhorse of the team).

UCSB's turnover rate really concerns me because a couple of players are very high. Gibb turns the ball over at a rate of 43.2% of his possessions. I like to think that the coaches have noticed this and are working with Gibb to reduce this number. Also, Joyner (30%) and Roemer (37.1%), two of our guards are fairly high as well. This is fairly nitpicky, but a reduction in these turnovers will go a long ways towards increasing offensive efficiency.

On a team note, I wanted to point out that Bob Williams doesn't utilize his bench as much as I believe he should. Our bench has played 29.7% of the total minutes (218th in the nation). I'm on the belief that you can and need to create depth on your team. I'm not saying that he should strive for 50% bench/starter ratio, but I believe if they want to maintain an up-tempo style, they need to increase those bench minutes before it becomes a baptism by fire. This too will go a long ways toward increasing that offensive efficiency.

Ok, this is getting long, but we're going to finish up on the defensive side of the ball. This is going to be short.

Surprisingly, defensive efficiency doesn't appear to be as indicative of the standings as one would think. Pacific is the third worst team in the Big West, while Cal Poly is fourth best. UCSB has quite an impressive defensive efficiency with a 93.3 rating (67th nationally). Only CSUN at 92.2 comes in ahead of them.

This is a big improvement of last season when they were 103.3, 2006 (100.3), 2005 (100.9) and 2004 (96.1). This is one area where we can say for certain that the new defense seems to really be working.

TGM's prognosis: UCSB needs to increase their offensive efficiency.

Recommendation: Increase the bench minutes to keep players healthy and fresh for ends of the game and the end of the season. Reduce the high turnover percentages to give the team more chances on the offensive end.

I feel that if UCSB can make only these small improvements, it will go a long way toward an NCAA berth. Of course, there may be some blips on the screen from time to time, but, if these changes are made, consider them to be nothing more than an anomaly. I don't want to predict anything because I usually disappoint myself, but if Bob Williams is the coach I hope he is, I forsee no more than 2 losses the rest of the way (in Big West).