First of all, it's nice to know that the Gauchos are two games above .500 in Big West play. Last night, they had a nice victory that highlighted some things they do well and some things they do bad.
Let's start with the good. UCSB seemed more willing to push the ball up the court in last night's game. On multiple occasions they pulled down a rebound found the outlet quickly who sprinted up the court. If you noticed, this was much different than the game against Davis. In the Davis game, the players seemed to be interested in walking the ball up the court and play Davis' game. It was nice to see the Gauchos set the tempo.
Another thing they did well, relatively speaking, in moving around on offense. In the second half, there was not much standing around. The players set some picks and seemed willing to make Riverside work.
Lastly, I thought their defense was fairly good during stretches of the game. This is what keyed their offense, in the humble opinion of The Gaucho Manifesto.
Now, onto the bad. UCSB had 19 turnovers. Many of these turnovers were the result of stupid mistakes. I can recall one offensive play when the ball was at the top of the key and passed to the player in the corner. Unfortunately, a wide open shot was never taken because the ball was passed at Harris' feet.
The one problem I have with the offense is lack the of movement. I know that I just said it was better, but it's still not good. Usually on plays, there was one or two screens, involving the ball and some movement off the ball, but not as much as you'd like. On top of that, the Gauchos love to run two plays. The first one, involves a couple of screens and a shooter taking a shot at the top of the arc. The second play involves a couple of screens and involves a three point shot on the wing (this one appears to be more of a motion based offense). The problem? UCSB ran each one several straight occasions. Also, Riverside did a nice job of switching on those plays because they knew what UCSB was running. I've never had a problem dispensing advice to Bob, so here it goes: when the other team knows what you're doing, change it up. Call a different set play. Run the same play, but put in a backdoor cut once the player gets out to the three point line. These pay dividends in the end.
The only other problem I have is a hallmark of Bob's teams. Bob's teams are paragons of inconsistency. One minute they're up 15 points and completely in control. The next five minute stretch, everyone stands around, turns it over and they allow the team to get within a point or two of the lead. Basketball is a game of runs, but how else can you explain losses where we shouldn't lose on a regular basis?
Now, onto the actual analysis of the game.
Shooting Percentage
UCSB shot an even 50% from the floor about 5 percentage points better than their season average. Again, it was the Gauchos three-point shooting which really helped them out here. They went 11-21 from the three point line.
I know I keep beating a dead horse, but the Gauchos really need to play a faster pace than the 69 per game they're averaging. They NEED to take advantage of their speed and three point shooting ability. Playing at a faster pace and pushing the ball allows the Gauchos to get even more open three point looks. Imagine how scary they would be if they actually made sense.
UCSB held Riverside to a 2-11 performance from the three point line which is very good indeed. This was lower than their already crappy season average which indicates the Gauchos did a good job of defending the three.
Offensive Rebounding
In what has been a common theme this season, UCSB lost the offensive battle 9 to 5. The problem is the big guys have little willingness to get in there and bang. I know it's a finesse type team (seriously, do I need to throw any more evidence out there for a faster pace?), but we need to limit the offensive opportunities we're giving up.
The other problem is that we just aren't getting many boards. We shoot a lot of threes and are good at it. However, our big guys don't need to be chillaxin' out on the three point line. Bob needs to put on a couple Dennis Rodman 8 tracks and show these dudes how to board. Let me assist
There's a couple boards in the beginning. Keep watching it big men. If need be, I'll come over and teach you a thing or two about boarding. Rebounding is something you have to want. WANT IT!! Before anyone blasts me about Devine and Elliot's rebounding performance last night (which was decent), let me point out that Nedim Pajevic played 15 minutes and got 0 rebounds. He did a nice job of collecting fouls though. This needs to be a group effort. As long as Bob Williams refuses to play more players, our three big men have to be a better job of controlling the glass.
We did win the overall rebound battle 26-25, so that was a good thing. I like what I see and all is not lost.
Free Throws
This stat line is a little misleading. UCR was 17-25 and the Gauchos were 15-19. Every time I looked up, UCSB was being called for another foul. Riverside was in the bonus early while the Gauchos didn't get their until much later.
However, the Gauchos were their typical excellent selves from the line tonight and they were efficient. This is the type of performance that can win or lose a game for you and the team chose the former.
Turnovers
A bad trend is emerging on the turnover front. The Gauchos are losing the turnover battle. Personally, I don't think turnovers are bad if they're made pushing the ball up the court. The problem is that most of the turnovers are problem turnovers (low passes, ball off the foot, etc...).
If the Gauchos play faster it's not really a bad thing to have turnovers. They're expected. However, when they're playing a slightly slower pace (in this case 60 possessions), they can't have the silly turnovers.
It was a good victory and now they need to turn up the heat for their next games and keep it going.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
1/30/08: UCSB at Riverside
UCSB Gauchos (15-5, 4-3) at UC-Riverside Highlanders (4-14, 1-6)
January 30, 2008, 7:00 p.m. (PST)
Channelsurfing.net has a link to the game tonight on their website. Hopefully, that link will remain and those of you not planning on being in attendance can watch it on your computer.
Tonight, the Gauchos look to get a two game winning streak against the last place Highlanders. UCR's only win has come against fellow cellar dweller LBSU. Without looking too deep into the stats, this has all the makings of a blowout win. As long as Bob Williams keeps his troops focused on the task at hand, the Gauchos can get a nice tune-up for the second go-round of the Big West.
Time to compare the stats
1. Shooting Percentages
UCSB: 45.5%
UCR: 40.8%
This is the first conference game that UCSB has had where their opponent is not going to fire threes at will. UCR has attempted only 259 three pointers coming into tonight's game and shoots them at a 29.3%. There coach is onto something.
While Riverside doesn't appear to be inclined to shoot the three, they have been chucking it up at a slightly higher rate over the last couple weeks. Regardless, UCSB needs to focus their defense to within the three point line. Riverside is not going to be able to hurt them from the outside.
For UCSB, it's going to be the same story tonight. I'm still convinced (and still trying to convince Bob Williams) that UCSB needs to push the ball up the court and take advantage of their superior three point shooting and free throw skills. Getting out into the fast break and upping the tempo will create these opportunities for them.
On the other hand, UCR plays at about a 5 possession's per game pace slower than the Gauchos. If this is the case, the Gauchos need to work on their offense and set picks and move around.
2. Free Throws
UCSB: 272-348, 78.2%
UCR: 207-310, 66.8%
Here is another extreme advantage of the Gauchos. Of their regular rotation, there is no weak link in the free throw shooting category.
The Gauchos mission in this game should be get to the line early and get there often.
Many people have been impressed by Cal Poly's victory over Pacific on Monday night. The one thing that people are missing is that Cal Poly shot 26-28 from the Free Throw line. They won the game at the line because they attacked the basket and shot a high percentage. If UCSB can get to the line an average of 25 times a game, there is really no way they should lose any game (unless they're playing a team shooting the three well).
3. Offensive Rebounding
UCSB: 9.4/game
UCR: 10.1/game
UCSB needs to control the boards on both ends. The Gauchos should be more concerned about preventing their opponent from getting offensive boards. With the finesse big men they have, they can't afford to keep them in the paint on defense very long.
Additionally, as noted last game, if the Gauchos can grab the defensive rebounds and push it up the court, the numbers should be there with this speedy team.
4. Turnovers
UCSB: 15.1/game, opponents 18.7/game
UCR: 16.4/game, opponents 13.9/game
UCSB's defense is clearly going to be a major advantage today. If they can turn up the volume and force some turnovers, this will play into everything that TGM thinks the Gauchos should be doing. The one thing they need to work on offense is moving the ball around. Instead of taking their defender one-on-one, the Gauchos should be able to cut that turnover average by two or three per game if they can get some semblance of an offense going.
For tonight, we're hoping that the Gauchos play at a fast pace. Bob Williams has shown that he's more inclined to let his opponent dictate the pace that they play. This can be dangerous. If they can push the ball in transition and fire up the threes (Think the NCAA's version of the Golden State Warriors or Rick Pitino coached teams) and play some pressure defense, the Gauchos can use this to a major advantage.
January 30, 2008, 7:00 p.m. (PST)
Channelsurfing.net has a link to the game tonight on their website. Hopefully, that link will remain and those of you not planning on being in attendance can watch it on your computer.
Tonight, the Gauchos look to get a two game winning streak against the last place Highlanders. UCR's only win has come against fellow cellar dweller LBSU. Without looking too deep into the stats, this has all the makings of a blowout win. As long as Bob Williams keeps his troops focused on the task at hand, the Gauchos can get a nice tune-up for the second go-round of the Big West.
Time to compare the stats
1. Shooting Percentages
UCSB: 45.5%
UCR: 40.8%
This is the first conference game that UCSB has had where their opponent is not going to fire threes at will. UCR has attempted only 259 three pointers coming into tonight's game and shoots them at a 29.3%. There coach is onto something.
While Riverside doesn't appear to be inclined to shoot the three, they have been chucking it up at a slightly higher rate over the last couple weeks. Regardless, UCSB needs to focus their defense to within the three point line. Riverside is not going to be able to hurt them from the outside.
For UCSB, it's going to be the same story tonight. I'm still convinced (and still trying to convince Bob Williams) that UCSB needs to push the ball up the court and take advantage of their superior three point shooting and free throw skills. Getting out into the fast break and upping the tempo will create these opportunities for them.
On the other hand, UCR plays at about a 5 possession's per game pace slower than the Gauchos. If this is the case, the Gauchos need to work on their offense and set picks and move around.
2. Free Throws
UCSB: 272-348, 78.2%
UCR: 207-310, 66.8%
Here is another extreme advantage of the Gauchos. Of their regular rotation, there is no weak link in the free throw shooting category.
The Gauchos mission in this game should be get to the line early and get there often.
Many people have been impressed by Cal Poly's victory over Pacific on Monday night. The one thing that people are missing is that Cal Poly shot 26-28 from the Free Throw line. They won the game at the line because they attacked the basket and shot a high percentage. If UCSB can get to the line an average of 25 times a game, there is really no way they should lose any game (unless they're playing a team shooting the three well).
3. Offensive Rebounding
UCSB: 9.4/game
UCR: 10.1/game
UCSB needs to control the boards on both ends. The Gauchos should be more concerned about preventing their opponent from getting offensive boards. With the finesse big men they have, they can't afford to keep them in the paint on defense very long.
Additionally, as noted last game, if the Gauchos can grab the defensive rebounds and push it up the court, the numbers should be there with this speedy team.
4. Turnovers
UCSB: 15.1/game, opponents 18.7/game
UCR: 16.4/game, opponents 13.9/game
UCSB's defense is clearly going to be a major advantage today. If they can turn up the volume and force some turnovers, this will play into everything that TGM thinks the Gauchos should be doing. The one thing they need to work on offense is moving the ball around. Instead of taking their defender one-on-one, the Gauchos should be able to cut that turnover average by two or three per game if they can get some semblance of an offense going.
For tonight, we're hoping that the Gauchos play at a fast pace. Bob Williams has shown that he's more inclined to let his opponent dictate the pace that they play. This can be dangerous. If they can push the ball in transition and fire up the threes (Think the NCAA's version of the Golden State Warriors or Rick Pitino coached teams) and play some pressure defense, the Gauchos can use this to a major advantage.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Battle of the Ages
That's right, currently, there is a battle raging on the Gaucho Loco Message Boards. For those of you who don't post or read the Message Board, let me give you a brief rundown of the controversy with a video clip.
Well, it's not quite the Battle of Helms Deep (it's more like the clip below), but it's getting there. Basically, the battle comes down to several warring factions.
There are those who believe UCSB basketball is done for the season because of the incredible lack of consistency since Big West started. Within this group, there are those who think that UCSB basketball will continue to stink for as long as Bob Williams is the coach. This group also believes that attendance will not increase until someone with some spirit gets into the AD throne and excommunicates Bob from Gaucholand.
On the other side are those who believe that the season is not done and they want to kill the other side. They believe that part of the problem stems from the lack of attendance by the student body. This side strongly believes that we have some fair weathered fans at UCSB (Can't disagree there). This side also repeatedly throws out suggestions to improve home attendance.
I think both sides are correct in this spirited debate. While TGM knows none of the Gaucho Loco posters personally, it's a shame that the UCSB administration wouldn't involve some of them in the search for a new AD. I think people on both sides of this argument have great ideas on how to improve attendance for Men's Basketball (1. Fire Bob Williams) and what will actually make our team a Big West powerhouse. Here's hoping that Chancellor Yang actually listens to the people for once and includes some people who are most likely more knowledgeable and passionate about the situation than he is.
Well, it's not quite the Battle of Helms Deep (it's more like the clip below), but it's getting there. Basically, the battle comes down to several warring factions.
There are those who believe UCSB basketball is done for the season because of the incredible lack of consistency since Big West started. Within this group, there are those who think that UCSB basketball will continue to stink for as long as Bob Williams is the coach. This group also believes that attendance will not increase until someone with some spirit gets into the AD throne and excommunicates Bob from Gaucholand.
On the other side are those who believe that the season is not done and they want to kill the other side. They believe that part of the problem stems from the lack of attendance by the student body. This side strongly believes that we have some fair weathered fans at UCSB (Can't disagree there). This side also repeatedly throws out suggestions to improve home attendance.
I think both sides are correct in this spirited debate. While TGM knows none of the Gaucho Loco posters personally, it's a shame that the UCSB administration wouldn't involve some of them in the search for a new AD. I think people on both sides of this argument have great ideas on how to improve attendance for Men's Basketball (1. Fire Bob Williams) and what will actually make our team a Big West powerhouse. Here's hoping that Chancellor Yang actually listens to the people for once and includes some people who are most likely more knowledgeable and passionate about the situation than he is.
Mid-Major Top 25
The Mid-Major Top 25 was released yesterday and UCSB dropped from #11 to #13. After last week, I'm now a believer that UCSB is a NIT-type team this year (unfortunate because I believed they were a legitimated NCAA team after that awesome start).
Interestingly, UCSB is still the highest ranked Big West team (woot woot), yet a mere 4-3 in conference play and in 4th place. Coming in at #17 is Cal State Northridge, the Big West's first place team at 6-0. CSUN dropped from #13 to their current position as a result of their loss to Chicago State (Who?). Pacific, the #2 team in the Big West, is ranked #19.
The Mid-Major Top 25 poll is an odd poll. Don't get me wrong, I enjoy looking at the polls, but sometimes you have to question their actual utility. For instance, Gonzaga is the #1 ranked team in the Mid-Major poll, yet they are in the Others Receiving Votes (barely) category of the AP and ESPN Top 25 polls. Butler, ranked at #12 in both national polls, is the #2 team in the Mid-Major Top 25.
At this point, you shouldn't be concerned with UCSB's rank in the Mid-Major Top 25. Rather, I'm still waiting for them to turn this baby around, right the ship and take over first place and the Big West's NCAA bid.
Sunday, January 27, 2008
UCSB vs. Davis Game Recap
Last night was a nice win for the Gauchos. Courtesy of channelsurfing.net, TGM was able to catch the second half of the game.
The game was a bit of a snoozer. UCSB was in complete control the entire game, but there is plenty to comment on, both good and bad. One of the highlights of my viewing experience was hearing Don Ford utilize the phrase "bonehead," or some variation, on more than one occasion. You just don't get that honest opinion when you listen to ESPN or CBS. Keep up the honest work Don.
Secondly, I was disappointed that UCSB refused to push the ball up the court on offense. On the two or three occasions when the Gauchos pulled down a long rebound and the guards pushed the ball up the court they had numbers each time. This is the type of offense that I'd love to see the Gauchos get into.
Roy Williams' teams are notorious for this. They play some of the fastest basketball (measured by pace) in the nation. Currently, the Heels are 7th in the nation with an astonishing 77.0 possessions per game average (kenpom.com). Take a look at the clip below. Notice how the Heels, when pushing the ball up the court are beating the defense down the floor.
I believe smallish teams, like the Gauchos, can employ this style of play to their advantage. First, you increase depth by necessity because you have to have a deep rotation. Second, you run the other teams off the floor and third, it forces teams that don't play that style into bad possessions.
When the team was on offense, it seemed very stagnant. There were very few screens and when there was a screen, it was often just one pick and roll screen. The players were standing around on offense and just running to a different spot on the court. More offense could have been generated in the half-court if the team ran some more off-the-ball screens for their teammates. The few times that off-the-ball screens were used and the team employed multiple screen plays they looked great. Too often, though, the team seemed to rely on a one-on-one game with a guard trying to take their man to the hole or a post player taking it up.
And, for the statistical (sort of) analysis.
1. Field Goal %
Season Averages - UCSB 46.1%, Davis 44.4%
Game %
UCSB: 48.9%
Davis: 34.8%
The Gauchos did a good job of holding Davis well below their season average. Our three-point defense has been phenomenal as of late (save Pacific). Holding Davis to 22.7% on 5-22 will go a long ways toward victory every time.
Meanwhile, UCSB wasn't much better shooting the three with a 31.6% on 6-19 shooting. However, as the astute readers of this blog can figure out, UCSB was superior inside the three. UCSB did a fairly good job of penetrating the lane and hitting their shots.
If you look above, you'll see that I think the Gauchos should be increasing the tempo they play at. If they do, look for them to increase their shooting % in their upcoming games.
2. Offensive Rebounding
Season Averages - UCSB 9.6, Davis 7.2
Game
UCSB: 6
Davis: 13
We don't have a stat for second chance points, but the fact that the Gauchos got out-rebounded on the offensive side of things but still won by 15 is a good indicator of how well they shot. Most impressive is that Davis had a 7 footer on their team who got 5 of those offensive boards.
On the flip side, the Gauchos really need to improve their rebounding deficit. Over the last couple games, the Gauchos have been losing this battle, although the season average on the offensive glass says otherwise. In the close games where the Gauchos shoot a poor percentage, this is going to hurt them.
Our guards are doing a good job rebounding the ball defensively. Each time Joiner got an offensive board in the second half, he immediately pushed it and it opened up the floor. That was impressive.
3. Free Throws
Season Averages - UCSB 248-315, 78.7%, Davis 234-313, 74.8%
Game
UCSB: 10-13, 76.9%
Davis: 8-10, 80%
This was the same old story. Everyone was stellar from the line tonight.
The only complaint I have on this end is that we should have visited the line more often. Davis turned this into a walk it up-the-court type game. This forced the Gauchos into a stagnant half-court offense. If there was more off-ball movement and screening, the Gauchos would have gotten more wide open looks and drives to the basket with the potential of heading to the line.
4. Turnovers
Season Averages - UCSB 15.8/game, 19/game opponents, Davis 15.9/game, 15.2/game opponents
Game
UCSB: 11 turnovers
Davis: 16 turnovers
Again, we had a nice game here last night. We dropped our turnovers by a good amount and forced Davis into a lot of sloppy plays in the second half.
The one thing I noticed by the Gauchos was some sloppy ball-handling in the half court set. This seemed to be caused by the stagnant offense which forced the primary scorers and ball handlers into creating their own offense. A couple of times I recall a Gaucho dribbling the ball off his foot.
Looking back at this game, the Gauchos had a very good performance, winning three of the four categories. While it might be hard for the Gauchos to win the Big West based on what we've seen through 7 conference games, I think it's not an out-of-reach goal. UCSB has to work on pushing the ball up the court to create their offense. Last night proved that it can work.
Second, the Gauchos need to improve their half-court offense. When I was in high school, one of the first things the freshman team was taught was the "scramble" offense. It wasn't really an offense. The idea was that when no play is called, everyone needs to be moving around and setting picks for each other. The coach told us that if we were standing still something was wrong. UCSB needs to adopt this half court philosophy if they aren't going to run set plays. Running some set plays for Al Harris could help him avoid the physical abuse that defenders are throwing his way during the games (reducing the possibility of injury and increasing his shooting opportunities).
The game was a bit of a snoozer. UCSB was in complete control the entire game, but there is plenty to comment on, both good and bad. One of the highlights of my viewing experience was hearing Don Ford utilize the phrase "bonehead," or some variation, on more than one occasion. You just don't get that honest opinion when you listen to ESPN or CBS. Keep up the honest work Don.
Secondly, I was disappointed that UCSB refused to push the ball up the court on offense. On the two or three occasions when the Gauchos pulled down a long rebound and the guards pushed the ball up the court they had numbers each time. This is the type of offense that I'd love to see the Gauchos get into.
Roy Williams' teams are notorious for this. They play some of the fastest basketball (measured by pace) in the nation. Currently, the Heels are 7th in the nation with an astonishing 77.0 possessions per game average (kenpom.com). Take a look at the clip below. Notice how the Heels, when pushing the ball up the court are beating the defense down the floor.
I believe smallish teams, like the Gauchos, can employ this style of play to their advantage. First, you increase depth by necessity because you have to have a deep rotation. Second, you run the other teams off the floor and third, it forces teams that don't play that style into bad possessions.
When the team was on offense, it seemed very stagnant. There were very few screens and when there was a screen, it was often just one pick and roll screen. The players were standing around on offense and just running to a different spot on the court. More offense could have been generated in the half-court if the team ran some more off-the-ball screens for their teammates. The few times that off-the-ball screens were used and the team employed multiple screen plays they looked great. Too often, though, the team seemed to rely on a one-on-one game with a guard trying to take their man to the hole or a post player taking it up.
And, for the statistical (sort of) analysis.
1. Field Goal %
Season Averages - UCSB 46.1%, Davis 44.4%
Game %
UCSB: 48.9%
Davis: 34.8%
The Gauchos did a good job of holding Davis well below their season average. Our three-point defense has been phenomenal as of late (save Pacific). Holding Davis to 22.7% on 5-22 will go a long ways toward victory every time.
Meanwhile, UCSB wasn't much better shooting the three with a 31.6% on 6-19 shooting. However, as the astute readers of this blog can figure out, UCSB was superior inside the three. UCSB did a fairly good job of penetrating the lane and hitting their shots.
If you look above, you'll see that I think the Gauchos should be increasing the tempo they play at. If they do, look for them to increase their shooting % in their upcoming games.
2. Offensive Rebounding
Season Averages - UCSB 9.6, Davis 7.2
Game
UCSB: 6
Davis: 13
We don't have a stat for second chance points, but the fact that the Gauchos got out-rebounded on the offensive side of things but still won by 15 is a good indicator of how well they shot. Most impressive is that Davis had a 7 footer on their team who got 5 of those offensive boards.
On the flip side, the Gauchos really need to improve their rebounding deficit. Over the last couple games, the Gauchos have been losing this battle, although the season average on the offensive glass says otherwise. In the close games where the Gauchos shoot a poor percentage, this is going to hurt them.
Our guards are doing a good job rebounding the ball defensively. Each time Joiner got an offensive board in the second half, he immediately pushed it and it opened up the floor. That was impressive.
3. Free Throws
Season Averages - UCSB 248-315, 78.7%, Davis 234-313, 74.8%
Game
UCSB: 10-13, 76.9%
Davis: 8-10, 80%
This was the same old story. Everyone was stellar from the line tonight.
The only complaint I have on this end is that we should have visited the line more often. Davis turned this into a walk it up-the-court type game. This forced the Gauchos into a stagnant half-court offense. If there was more off-ball movement and screening, the Gauchos would have gotten more wide open looks and drives to the basket with the potential of heading to the line.
4. Turnovers
Season Averages - UCSB 15.8/game, 19/game opponents, Davis 15.9/game, 15.2/game opponents
Game
UCSB: 11 turnovers
Davis: 16 turnovers
Again, we had a nice game here last night. We dropped our turnovers by a good amount and forced Davis into a lot of sloppy plays in the second half.
The one thing I noticed by the Gauchos was some sloppy ball-handling in the half court set. This seemed to be caused by the stagnant offense which forced the primary scorers and ball handlers into creating their own offense. A couple of times I recall a Gaucho dribbling the ball off his foot.
Looking back at this game, the Gauchos had a very good performance, winning three of the four categories. While it might be hard for the Gauchos to win the Big West based on what we've seen through 7 conference games, I think it's not an out-of-reach goal. UCSB has to work on pushing the ball up the court to create their offense. Last night proved that it can work.
Second, the Gauchos need to improve their half-court offense. When I was in high school, one of the first things the freshman team was taught was the "scramble" offense. It wasn't really an offense. The idea was that when no play is called, everyone needs to be moving around and setting picks for each other. The coach told us that if we were standing still something was wrong. UCSB needs to adopt this half court philosophy if they aren't going to run set plays. Running some set plays for Al Harris could help him avoid the physical abuse that defenders are throwing his way during the games (reducing the possibility of injury and increasing his shooting opportunities).
Friday, January 25, 2008
1/26/08: UCSB vs. UC-Davis
UCSB Gauchos (14-5, 3-3) vs. UC-Davis Aggies (8-11, 2-4)
January 26, 2008, 7:00 p.m. (PST)
UPDATE: channelsurfing.net says that they'll be carrying the game tonight. Be sure to open the link up in internet explorer. Enjoy the game!
Look for the Gauchos to get back on track tonight after the asswhippin' they took at the hands of the Pacific Tigers. This season has now taken on the familiar ring of seasons past. Bob Williams has built his team's record with some wimpy ass non-conference competition (and lost the games against the non-wimpy teams), gotten everyone's hopes up and just like a pin hitting a balloon, we've seriously deflated our expectations (yet again). January just wouldn't be the same without you Bob.
Now, don't mistake my disdain for Mr. Bob for overall Gaucho disdain. I've got love for the Gauchos. Shit, if I was rich (I wouldn't be writing this blog), I would give the new AD some pretty high incentives (multi-million dollars we're talking) to dump Bob after this season. Alas, I'm not rich and that is nothing more than a pipe dream. Bob is under contract for two more seasons, so get used to the highs and the lows baby!
Onto more important things, like the game tonight. Before we take a look at these stats, I want to point out something. UC-Davis has a crappy record, yes, but their stats are scary close to the Gauchos. Without further ado, let's get to it.
1. Field Goal %
UCSB: 46.1%
Davis: 44.4%
UCSB has a slight advantage over Davis in overall percentage, however, UCSB's true advantage is going to be at the three point line (isn't it always). On Thursday night, we saw just how important that advantage is to the Gauchos. They shot poorly from the three point line and it really hurt them (also, it didn't help to allow Pacific to shoot lights out).
UCSB shoots 43.4% from the three point line, good for second in the nation (look at the above chart to see their individual performance game-by-game, courtesy of statsheet.com). Just like Cal Poly, Davis is shooting a lower 3 point % (37%) while shooting it more often than the Gauchos. The key to the Gauchos success lays herein. Keep the Aggies at a low 3 point percentage and shoot a high percentage and your odds increase.
Just a thought. Since UCSB is shooting the three so well and not a great rebounding team, they should really consider borrowing a page from Rick Pitino. According to kenpom.com, the Gauchos are playing the 80th fastest pace in the nation at 70.3 possessions per game. If I was Bob Williams I would advocate Pitino's strategy of pushing the ball up the court and shooting the three. The Gauchos don't rebound particularly well and we shoot the three very well, so I say fire away.
2. Offensive Rebounding
UCSB: 9.6
Davis: 7.2
This stat always surprises me. It always seems that the Gauchos are out-rebounding their opponents statistically, but when they get to the game, they lose this battle 7 times out of 10. They're going to have take advantage of this edge because a lot of the other stats are even. Besides, a team that can't rebound is a team that gets eliminated early in the Big West Tournament.
3. Free Throws
UCSB: 248-315, 78.7%
Davis: 234-313, 74.8%
This is the closest free throw match-up the Gauchos have had to date (that I can recall). Davis has the 20th highest FT % in the country and they get to the line as much as UCSB.
Don't foul the Aggies when shooting. It looks like they're going to make us pay if we make that mistake.
4. Turnovers
UCSB: 15.8/game, 19/game opponents
Davis: 15.9/game, 15.2/game opponents
Above is UCSB's turnover average after each game, courtesy of statsheet.com. As you can see, they've been getting more each game than giving it away. This is a good thing.
Davis is averaging approximately a 1-1 ratio when it comes to turnovers. We need to keep their turnovers high and ours low (obvious) . However, not all is well on the home front. If you look at the chart above, our opponents turnover average has been decreasing game by game over the last couple weeks. UCSB must reverse this trend starting tonight.
Some final thoughts. Davis is playing at a pace of about 64 possessions per game. UCSB is playing at a pace of about 70 a game. Like I said above, I think the Gauchos need to start pushing the pace and shooting more threes. Basically, I'm convinced that it's their only chance to make the NCAA Tournament now. Pushing the pace will force Davis into this frenetic style, which doesn't really seem like they want to do.
As for this game, the stats indicate that it's going to be a close one. While I think the Gauchos on paper are better, having Bob Williams on the sideline has proven to be a major liability. We can beat the best teams in the conference (sort of), but lay an egg when we're supposed to win. If the Gauchos can pull this off, it's going to be close.
January 26, 2008, 7:00 p.m. (PST)
UPDATE: channelsurfing.net says that they'll be carrying the game tonight. Be sure to open the link up in internet explorer. Enjoy the game!
Look for the Gauchos to get back on track tonight after the asswhippin' they took at the hands of the Pacific Tigers. This season has now taken on the familiar ring of seasons past. Bob Williams has built his team's record with some wimpy ass non-conference competition (and lost the games against the non-wimpy teams), gotten everyone's hopes up and just like a pin hitting a balloon, we've seriously deflated our expectations (yet again). January just wouldn't be the same without you Bob.
Now, don't mistake my disdain for Mr. Bob for overall Gaucho disdain. I've got love for the Gauchos. Shit, if I was rich (I wouldn't be writing this blog), I would give the new AD some pretty high incentives (multi-million dollars we're talking) to dump Bob after this season. Alas, I'm not rich and that is nothing more than a pipe dream. Bob is under contract for two more seasons, so get used to the highs and the lows baby!
Onto more important things, like the game tonight. Before we take a look at these stats, I want to point out something. UC-Davis has a crappy record, yes, but their stats are scary close to the Gauchos. Without further ado, let's get to it.
1. Field Goal %
UCSB: 46.1%
Davis: 44.4%
UCSB has a slight advantage over Davis in overall percentage, however, UCSB's true advantage is going to be at the three point line (isn't it always). On Thursday night, we saw just how important that advantage is to the Gauchos. They shot poorly from the three point line and it really hurt them (also, it didn't help to allow Pacific to shoot lights out).
UCSB shoots 43.4% from the three point line, good for second in the nation (look at the above chart to see their individual performance game-by-game, courtesy of statsheet.com). Just like Cal Poly, Davis is shooting a lower 3 point % (37%) while shooting it more often than the Gauchos. The key to the Gauchos success lays herein. Keep the Aggies at a low 3 point percentage and shoot a high percentage and your odds increase.
Just a thought. Since UCSB is shooting the three so well and not a great rebounding team, they should really consider borrowing a page from Rick Pitino. According to kenpom.com, the Gauchos are playing the 80th fastest pace in the nation at 70.3 possessions per game. If I was Bob Williams I would advocate Pitino's strategy of pushing the ball up the court and shooting the three. The Gauchos don't rebound particularly well and we shoot the three very well, so I say fire away.
2. Offensive Rebounding
UCSB: 9.6
Davis: 7.2
This stat always surprises me. It always seems that the Gauchos are out-rebounding their opponents statistically, but when they get to the game, they lose this battle 7 times out of 10. They're going to have take advantage of this edge because a lot of the other stats are even. Besides, a team that can't rebound is a team that gets eliminated early in the Big West Tournament.
3. Free Throws
UCSB: 248-315, 78.7%
Davis: 234-313, 74.8%
This is the closest free throw match-up the Gauchos have had to date (that I can recall). Davis has the 20th highest FT % in the country and they get to the line as much as UCSB.
Don't foul the Aggies when shooting. It looks like they're going to make us pay if we make that mistake.
4. Turnovers
UCSB: 15.8/game, 19/game opponents
Davis: 15.9/game, 15.2/game opponents
Above is UCSB's turnover average after each game, courtesy of statsheet.com. As you can see, they've been getting more each game than giving it away. This is a good thing.
Davis is averaging approximately a 1-1 ratio when it comes to turnovers. We need to keep their turnovers high and ours low (obvious) . However, not all is well on the home front. If you look at the chart above, our opponents turnover average has been decreasing game by game over the last couple weeks. UCSB must reverse this trend starting tonight.
Some final thoughts. Davis is playing at a pace of about 64 possessions per game. UCSB is playing at a pace of about 70 a game. Like I said above, I think the Gauchos need to start pushing the pace and shooting more threes. Basically, I'm convinced that it's their only chance to make the NCAA Tournament now. Pushing the pace will force Davis into this frenetic style, which doesn't really seem like they want to do.
As for this game, the stats indicate that it's going to be a close one. While I think the Gauchos on paper are better, having Bob Williams on the sideline has proven to be a major liability. We can beat the best teams in the conference (sort of), but lay an egg when we're supposed to win. If the Gauchos can pull this off, it's going to be close.
Nothing More Than Paper Tigers?
Well, UCSB you have revealed your true selves. You had us fooled, but no more. It is now safe to say that the Gauchos are nothing more than paper tigers. With the exception of UNLV, the Gauchos feasted on less than mediocre competition in their non-conference schedule. All this in preparation to enjoy an asswhoopin at the hands of the real Tigers, the Pacific Tigers. To make you guys feel better, I culled this footage of some Pacific Tigers attempting to party. If we can't beat them at basketball, take solace in the fact that we can outparty them, I'm confident in that assertion.
Here is the boxscore link from the carnage:
http://ucsbgauchos.cstv.com/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2007-2008/ucsbmb19.html
Let's take a look and see if we can find out what went wrong (besides just blaming Bob Williams for this debacle that started out so right):
1. Shooting %
UCSB: 32.1%
UoP: 59.5%
Without going into the obvious, you're not going to win any games where you shoot 32% and allow the opponent to shoot almost 60%.
The damage was mainly inflicted by one Chad Troyer. The man was 6-9 from the three and 7 for 11 total. That gives you a nomination for the Deon Tresvant award. This award will be given out to the man who most thoroughly enjoyed playing the game of his life against the Gauchos. His 27 points are impressive. I'm just curious, did anyone attempt to guard this guy during the game? Maybe one of the 5 fans in attendance could let us know.
2. Offensive Rebounding
UCSB: 4
UoP: 8
This stat is misleading. UCSB had far more shots than Pacific, so clearly, they'd have more opportunities to get to the glass. Using crude statistical analysis, Pacific grabbed a higher percentage of their offensive rebounds than did the Gauchos.
3. Free Throws
UCSB: 14-20, 70%
UoP: 18-31, 58.1%
This was one of the Gauchos "worst" free throw shooting performances of late. When shooting 70% is bad, you're usually shooting pretty well as a team. However, with Pacific getting to the line 11 more times, they put UCSB into foul trouble and although they didn't make them pay, it still took its toll. Chris Devine was the offender in last night's game going 4-8 from the charity stripe.
4. Turnovers
UCSB: 7 turnovers, 16 opponent turnovers
UoP: 16 turnovers, 7 opponent turnovers
Here, UCSB played a pertty good game. They limited their turnovers, forced a bunch from Pacific. Unfortunately, when your opponent is busy plastering you with 3's, well, to borrow a phrase from someone I know, "you're up shit creek without a paddle."
Like I said above, it's clear that the Gauchos are nothing more than paper tigers. They feasted on weak competition and when they got to conference play, everyone has Bob Williams figured out. Right now, we're nothing better than a fourth place team in Big West. Like a genie in a bottle, this is looking all too familiar to past seasons, and I predict a semi-final exit in the Big West Tournament.
Here is the boxscore link from the carnage:
http://ucsbgauchos.cstv.com/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2007-2008/ucsbmb19.html
Let's take a look and see if we can find out what went wrong (besides just blaming Bob Williams for this debacle that started out so right):
1. Shooting %
UCSB: 32.1%
UoP: 59.5%
Without going into the obvious, you're not going to win any games where you shoot 32% and allow the opponent to shoot almost 60%.
The damage was mainly inflicted by one Chad Troyer. The man was 6-9 from the three and 7 for 11 total. That gives you a nomination for the Deon Tresvant award. This award will be given out to the man who most thoroughly enjoyed playing the game of his life against the Gauchos. His 27 points are impressive. I'm just curious, did anyone attempt to guard this guy during the game? Maybe one of the 5 fans in attendance could let us know.
2. Offensive Rebounding
UCSB: 4
UoP: 8
This stat is misleading. UCSB had far more shots than Pacific, so clearly, they'd have more opportunities to get to the glass. Using crude statistical analysis, Pacific grabbed a higher percentage of their offensive rebounds than did the Gauchos.
3. Free Throws
UCSB: 14-20, 70%
UoP: 18-31, 58.1%
This was one of the Gauchos "worst" free throw shooting performances of late. When shooting 70% is bad, you're usually shooting pretty well as a team. However, with Pacific getting to the line 11 more times, they put UCSB into foul trouble and although they didn't make them pay, it still took its toll. Chris Devine was the offender in last night's game going 4-8 from the charity stripe.
4. Turnovers
UCSB: 7 turnovers, 16 opponent turnovers
UoP: 16 turnovers, 7 opponent turnovers
Here, UCSB played a pertty good game. They limited their turnovers, forced a bunch from Pacific. Unfortunately, when your opponent is busy plastering you with 3's, well, to borrow a phrase from someone I know, "you're up shit creek without a paddle."
Like I said above, it's clear that the Gauchos are nothing more than paper tigers. They feasted on weak competition and when they got to conference play, everyone has Bob Williams figured out. Right now, we're nothing better than a fourth place team in Big West. Like a genie in a bottle, this is looking all too familiar to past seasons, and I predict a semi-final exit in the Big West Tournament.
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Enjoy the Game Tonight
Don't worry TGM fans, I haven't disappeared. I've been busy and when I'm busy I can't post as much as I'd like. However, enjoy the game tonight and I'll be back in action tomorrow posting like a maniac.
Tonight, though, enjoy the game and hopefully the Gauchos can get a nice winning streak going.
Tonight, though, enjoy the game and hopefully the Gauchos can get a nice winning streak going.
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
UCSB Drops to 11 in Mid-Major Top 25
Hmmmm....You play one dominating game in your week and you drop in the rankings, go figure. UCSB went from 10 to 11 this week in the Mid-Major Top 25. Although the Gauchos are 4th in the current Big West standings, they're the highest ranked Big West team. Maybe those Mid-Major pollsters know something (or maybe, they're falling into the same trap that Bob Williams lulls them into every year).
First place CSUN moved up to #13 from #16. Second place Pacific moved into the Top 25 at #22, while third place CSUF isn't even in the Top 25. In fairness, CSUF is also 11-6, so they're going to have to perform for a few more weeks to sniff the Top 25.
Interestingly, the Mid-Major Top 25 doesn't match-up with the AP Top 25 (or Coaches poll for that matter). Gonzaga is still ranked #1 in the MM25, with Butler being #2. However, Butler is #15 in the country, while Gonzaga is in the ORV category. Explain that to me. I don't know who's right and who is wrong, but something is amiss. Also, Drake and St. Mary's are ranked ahead of Gonzaga in the AP25.
This leads me to a question, which I think I already know the answer to; if you had a choice in the Bracket Buster game, would you rather play a MM25 #1 Gonzaga (I know they aren't in the Bracket Busters) or an AP25 team like Butler? Feel free to post in the comments and make it an open thread or fill out the poll on the right.
First place CSUN moved up to #13 from #16. Second place Pacific moved into the Top 25 at #22, while third place CSUF isn't even in the Top 25. In fairness, CSUF is also 11-6, so they're going to have to perform for a few more weeks to sniff the Top 25.
Interestingly, the Mid-Major Top 25 doesn't match-up with the AP Top 25 (or Coaches poll for that matter). Gonzaga is still ranked #1 in the MM25, with Butler being #2. However, Butler is #15 in the country, while Gonzaga is in the ORV category. Explain that to me. I don't know who's right and who is wrong, but something is amiss. Also, Drake and St. Mary's are ranked ahead of Gonzaga in the AP25.
This leads me to a question, which I think I already know the answer to; if you had a choice in the Bracket Buster game, would you rather play a MM25 #1 Gonzaga (I know they aren't in the Bracket Busters) or an AP25 team like Butler? Feel free to post in the comments and make it an open thread or fill out the poll on the right.
Sunday, January 20, 2008
Very Impressive!
Last night was a very impressive victory for the Gauchos. They looked good on all fronts against the Mustangs. Here is the link to the boxscore:
http://ucsbgauchos.cstv.com/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2007-2008/cpmbb17.html
Let's look at the Four Factors:
1. Shooting %
UCSB: 20-53, 37.7%
CPSU: 23-54, 42.6%
Although UCSB didn't shoot as high a percentage as Cal Poly, the impressive stat line is the three point shooting of the Gauchos. UCSB went 10 for 20 from beyond the arc, which is just ridiculous. Shooting that well can be a curse, as well as a blessing. A blessing because if you're team can shoot 50% from beyond the arc you keep shooting it. A curse because shooting that well can encourage the players to eschew the two and fall in love with the three (and it really hurts when you shoot a poor percentage).
If you read this blog before the game last night, you'll recall that Cal Poly is shooting 29.7% from the three, while shooting a greater percentage of their total shots beyond the arc than UCSB. TGM's recommendation was to sag off the three point line and pack it inside the arc, thereby encouraging CPSU to fire away.
Cal Poly shot 2-19 from the three for a 10.5% percent. That is absolutely horrible even by Cal Poly standards. I didn't see the game, so I have no idea if they encouraged the Mustangs to shoot the three, but this quote from Bob Williams gives some insight into their strategy. "We did a pretty good job of harassing their shooters tonight," said Gaucho head coach Bob Williams. "They really killed us with three-pointers last year and we were determined that the same thing wouldn't happen this year. "
From the looks of it, Coach Williams seems to be implying that one of their strategies was to make Cal Poly shoot a low percentage from outside the arc. The problem with this strategy is that Cal Poly was shooting a poor percentage even before the game (although the Gauchos held them to a lower % then Poly normally shoots). If we're reading correctly into Coach Williams strategy, I'm a bit concerned with this. Clearly, there was no need to harass their shooters from beyond the arc since they already shot a poor percentage. It appears to me that UCSB could have made better use of their energy preventing Poly from scoring inside the arc. Of course, if the Mustang shooters started heating up, Williams could have changed the strategy, but their was no need to focus your resources on an area where they aren't needed. It's like a football team devoting the majority of their energy to stopping the run attack of the 32nd ranked run offense just because they got ran over the season before.
Let's hope that we're incorrect and that Coach Williams saw something that we didn't. I know last year, Dawin Whiten went 5 for 10 from the three against us in one game, so that might be what was making him focus on that.
2. Offensive Rebounding
UCSB: 12
CPSU: 7
There isn't much to say here, except that I am pleasantly surprised that the Gauchos were able to prevent the 'Stangs from outrebounding them on the offensive end.
3. FT's
UCSB: 25-30, 83.3%
CPSU: 12-18, 66.7%
Here is where UCSB really laid the smack down on the Mustangs. I'm extremely impressed that they got to the line 30 times in this game. Even more impressive than that is the fact that they only missed 5 shots. Kudos to Alex Harris and James Powell for getting to the line at least 10 times and shooting 19 for 22.
The high amount of FT's, coupled with the high % means that UCSB did a great job of attacking the basket and that some of their missed shots came on those fouls. They made Cal Poly pay for putting them on the line.
4. Turnovers
UCSB: 12 turnovers, 5 steals
CPSU: 12 turnovers, 7 steals
While it was a tie, I'll take it. UCSB had been getting sloppy with the ball over the last couple weeks. They kept their turnovers 4 below their average. It would have been nice to see them force more from Cal Poly, but now we're nitpicking.
Good job Gauchos, I like what I see. Keep this up against Pacific.
http://ucsbgauchos.cstv.com/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2007-2008/cpmbb17.html
Let's look at the Four Factors:
1. Shooting %
UCSB: 20-53, 37.7%
CPSU: 23-54, 42.6%
Although UCSB didn't shoot as high a percentage as Cal Poly, the impressive stat line is the three point shooting of the Gauchos. UCSB went 10 for 20 from beyond the arc, which is just ridiculous. Shooting that well can be a curse, as well as a blessing. A blessing because if you're team can shoot 50% from beyond the arc you keep shooting it. A curse because shooting that well can encourage the players to eschew the two and fall in love with the three (and it really hurts when you shoot a poor percentage).
If you read this blog before the game last night, you'll recall that Cal Poly is shooting 29.7% from the three, while shooting a greater percentage of their total shots beyond the arc than UCSB. TGM's recommendation was to sag off the three point line and pack it inside the arc, thereby encouraging CPSU to fire away.
Cal Poly shot 2-19 from the three for a 10.5% percent. That is absolutely horrible even by Cal Poly standards. I didn't see the game, so I have no idea if they encouraged the Mustangs to shoot the three, but this quote from Bob Williams gives some insight into their strategy. "We did a pretty good job of harassing their shooters tonight," said Gaucho head coach Bob Williams. "They really killed us with three-pointers last year and we were determined that the same thing wouldn't happen this year. "
From the looks of it, Coach Williams seems to be implying that one of their strategies was to make Cal Poly shoot a low percentage from outside the arc. The problem with this strategy is that Cal Poly was shooting a poor percentage even before the game (although the Gauchos held them to a lower % then Poly normally shoots). If we're reading correctly into Coach Williams strategy, I'm a bit concerned with this. Clearly, there was no need to harass their shooters from beyond the arc since they already shot a poor percentage. It appears to me that UCSB could have made better use of their energy preventing Poly from scoring inside the arc. Of course, if the Mustang shooters started heating up, Williams could have changed the strategy, but their was no need to focus your resources on an area where they aren't needed. It's like a football team devoting the majority of their energy to stopping the run attack of the 32nd ranked run offense just because they got ran over the season before.
Let's hope that we're incorrect and that Coach Williams saw something that we didn't. I know last year, Dawin Whiten went 5 for 10 from the three against us in one game, so that might be what was making him focus on that.
2. Offensive Rebounding
UCSB: 12
CPSU: 7
There isn't much to say here, except that I am pleasantly surprised that the Gauchos were able to prevent the 'Stangs from outrebounding them on the offensive end.
3. FT's
UCSB: 25-30, 83.3%
CPSU: 12-18, 66.7%
Here is where UCSB really laid the smack down on the Mustangs. I'm extremely impressed that they got to the line 30 times in this game. Even more impressive than that is the fact that they only missed 5 shots. Kudos to Alex Harris and James Powell for getting to the line at least 10 times and shooting 19 for 22.
The high amount of FT's, coupled with the high % means that UCSB did a great job of attacking the basket and that some of their missed shots came on those fouls. They made Cal Poly pay for putting them on the line.
4. Turnovers
UCSB: 12 turnovers, 5 steals
CPSU: 12 turnovers, 7 steals
While it was a tie, I'll take it. UCSB had been getting sloppy with the ball over the last couple weeks. They kept their turnovers 4 below their average. It would have been nice to see them force more from Cal Poly, but now we're nitpicking.
Good job Gauchos, I like what I see. Keep this up against Pacific.
Friday, January 18, 2008
1/19/08: UCSB at Cal Poly
UCSB Gauchos (13-4) at Cal Poly Mustangs (6-10)
January 19, 2008, 7:00 p.m. (PST)
Tomorrow night, the Gauchos look to start up a new winning streak, courtesy of the Mustangs. After a one week lay-off, the Gauchos and their fans are ready for another impressive performance. In case you missed it, I profiled the State of the Big West (below) and I believe the Gauchos are ideally positioned to take over the top of the Big West. First, though, they have to take care of business.
Cal Poly students must be looking forward to this game. In fact, they're so excited that they left the friendly and exciting confines of San Luis Obispo to drive to UCSB on Tuesday night and write some clever phrases around the campus. To you the Cal Poly taggers I say, nice use of original phrases around campus. With taggings in chalk (I didn't know CPSU accepts 4th graders), seriously, who uses chalk? They must have been up all night coming up with UCSTD. Now I understand the intelligence of the Mustang student body. Here is another example of their clever work:
Here are the scouting reports for both teams, from kenpom.com -
UCSB: http://www.kenpom.com/sr.php?team=UC%20Santa%20Barbara
CPSU: http://www.kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Cal%20Poly
Let's look at the Four Factors:
1. Field Goal %
UCSB: 46.6%
CP: 39.6%
Clearly, UCSB has the advantage here. They're shooting a much more efficient percentage from the field than their opponents. UCSB's true advantage in the shooting % is from the 3 point line. Cal Poly is shooting an ice cold 29.7% from the field.
However, since conference play has started, both CP and UCSB have shot better than their season averages.
Hopefully, UCSB will sag off the perimeter and allow Cal Poly to shoot the trey all night long. Cal Poly has shot more threes this season than UCSB, so it looks like they have no problem shooting a low percentage. 40% of the Mustangs' total shots are threes. Of course, the risk of sagging back and allowing them to huck the three up is that they'll actually make a few, get hot and ride three point shooting to a victory. I'd be willing to take my chances that CP will shoot a poor percentage. If I was Bob Williams, I would not allow my players to get outside the three point line on defense once in the half court and challenge Cal Poly to beat you inside (and outside for that matter).
2. Offensive Rebounding
UCSB: 9.5/game
CP: 10/game
Since this stat is so even, we won't go into it. However, like I said above, I would pack my defense inside the arc and allow Cal Poly to shoot the three. An added advantage of this will be to keep our players closer to the hoop to rebound and prevent CP from getting second chance possessions.
3. FT's
UCSB: 223-285, 78.2%
CP: 192-305, 63%
If you're starting to see a trend with the shooting percentages for each team, you're not alone. What a surprise, Cal Poly isn't very good at shooting free throws either.
What does surprise me though is that Cal Poly has more free throw attempts than the Gauchos this season. That doesn't surprise me, but I'm surprised that a team who takes 40% of their shots from the three point line can get to the line more than the Gauchos. Without the benefit of seeing Cal Poly on film or in person, I'm going to assume that they're shooting threes and driving to the hole, making contact to get to the line.
Again, I'm not too worried about the 20 FT differential at all. UCSB has proven themselves to be excellent free throw shooters all season. If you put them on the line, they usually take care of business and make you pay.
4. Turnovers committed/forced
UCSB: 16/game, 19.4/game (opponents)
CP: 13.7/game, 16.3/game (opponents)
This stat line is misleading. Yes, UCSB averages more turnovers than Cal Poly. But, UCSB also plays at a (slightly) faster tempo than Cal Poly. The pressure they create is likely to create some turnovers when they have the ball.
If UCSB wants to be a better team, they're going to have to reduce their turnover %. Currently, kenpom.com lists the Gauchos as turning the ball over on 22.4% of their possessions. That seems really high to me (and inaccurate), but the stats don't lie, so we have to accept them. The good thing for the Gauchos is that it's January 18 and conference play has just started. The Gauchos have plenty of time to reduce the turnover %.
Verdict:
UCSB looks better in every match-up. While Cal Poly has some size, UCSB is bigger. I think the Gauchos make out well in this game if they pack the defense in and play their usually offensive style, they stand a chance of making this a two game win streak.
January 19, 2008, 7:00 p.m. (PST)
Tomorrow night, the Gauchos look to start up a new winning streak, courtesy of the Mustangs. After a one week lay-off, the Gauchos and their fans are ready for another impressive performance. In case you missed it, I profiled the State of the Big West (below) and I believe the Gauchos are ideally positioned to take over the top of the Big West. First, though, they have to take care of business.
Cal Poly students must be looking forward to this game. In fact, they're so excited that they left the friendly and exciting confines of San Luis Obispo to drive to UCSB on Tuesday night and write some clever phrases around the campus. To you the Cal Poly taggers I say, nice use of original phrases around campus. With taggings in chalk (I didn't know CPSU accepts 4th graders), seriously, who uses chalk? They must have been up all night coming up with UCSTD. Now I understand the intelligence of the Mustang student body. Here is another example of their clever work:
Here are the scouting reports for both teams, from kenpom.com -
UCSB: http://www.kenpom.com/sr.php?team=UC%20Santa%20Barbara
CPSU: http://www.kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Cal%20Poly
Let's look at the Four Factors:
1. Field Goal %
UCSB: 46.6%
CP: 39.6%
Clearly, UCSB has the advantage here. They're shooting a much more efficient percentage from the field than their opponents. UCSB's true advantage in the shooting % is from the 3 point line. Cal Poly is shooting an ice cold 29.7% from the field.
However, since conference play has started, both CP and UCSB have shot better than their season averages.
Hopefully, UCSB will sag off the perimeter and allow Cal Poly to shoot the trey all night long. Cal Poly has shot more threes this season than UCSB, so it looks like they have no problem shooting a low percentage. 40% of the Mustangs' total shots are threes. Of course, the risk of sagging back and allowing them to huck the three up is that they'll actually make a few, get hot and ride three point shooting to a victory. I'd be willing to take my chances that CP will shoot a poor percentage. If I was Bob Williams, I would not allow my players to get outside the three point line on defense once in the half court and challenge Cal Poly to beat you inside (and outside for that matter).
2. Offensive Rebounding
UCSB: 9.5/game
CP: 10/game
Since this stat is so even, we won't go into it. However, like I said above, I would pack my defense inside the arc and allow Cal Poly to shoot the three. An added advantage of this will be to keep our players closer to the hoop to rebound and prevent CP from getting second chance possessions.
3. FT's
UCSB: 223-285, 78.2%
CP: 192-305, 63%
If you're starting to see a trend with the shooting percentages for each team, you're not alone. What a surprise, Cal Poly isn't very good at shooting free throws either.
What does surprise me though is that Cal Poly has more free throw attempts than the Gauchos this season. That doesn't surprise me, but I'm surprised that a team who takes 40% of their shots from the three point line can get to the line more than the Gauchos. Without the benefit of seeing Cal Poly on film or in person, I'm going to assume that they're shooting threes and driving to the hole, making contact to get to the line.
Again, I'm not too worried about the 20 FT differential at all. UCSB has proven themselves to be excellent free throw shooters all season. If you put them on the line, they usually take care of business and make you pay.
4. Turnovers committed/forced
UCSB: 16/game, 19.4/game (opponents)
CP: 13.7/game, 16.3/game (opponents)
This stat line is misleading. Yes, UCSB averages more turnovers than Cal Poly. But, UCSB also plays at a (slightly) faster tempo than Cal Poly. The pressure they create is likely to create some turnovers when they have the ball.
If UCSB wants to be a better team, they're going to have to reduce their turnover %. Currently, kenpom.com lists the Gauchos as turning the ball over on 22.4% of their possessions. That seems really high to me (and inaccurate), but the stats don't lie, so we have to accept them. The good thing for the Gauchos is that it's January 18 and conference play has just started. The Gauchos have plenty of time to reduce the turnover %.
Verdict:
UCSB looks better in every match-up. While Cal Poly has some size, UCSB is bigger. I think the Gauchos make out well in this game if they pack the defense in and play their usually offensive style, they stand a chance of making this a two game win streak.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
State of the Big West
Tonight, we're going to be looking at the Big West Conference and seeing what we can pick out of the stats that can help us get a better picture of what to expect down the road this season.
Below, you'll find the standings of the Big West Conference, with overall records in parentheses (as of January 15):
1. CSUN 4-0 (11-3)
2. CSUF 3-1 (9-5)
3. Pacific 2-1 (10-5)
4. UCI 2-1 (6-9)
5. UCSB 2-2 (12-4)
6. Davis 1-2 (5-9)
7. Cal Poly 1-3 (5-10)
8. LBSU 1-3 (4-11)
9. UCR 0-3 (2-11)
First, just an observation, but UCSB hasn't lost to any team currently in the bottom half of the league. The only team currently ahead of the Gauchos in the standings that they haven't played is Pacific. Obviously, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure it out, but the Gauchos are going to have to find a way to beat the teams they've lost to in the second go-round if we want to find the Gauchos in the NCAA Bracket on Selection Sunday.
Just looking at straight RPI numbers on Ken Pomeroy's site, the only team RPI-wise that we're close to is CSUN. In fact, they've overtaken us on kenpom with an RPI of 60, as compared to our RPI of 89. Our next closest RPI "competitor" is Pacific at 149. Obviously (again), the Gauchos are going to have to take out CSUN next time around to boost their RPI and (hopefully) run the table the rest of the way in Big West to get a favorable RPI and higher seeding if they win the Big West Tourney. However, those who don't learn from history are doomed to make the same mistakes (or however that quote goes). If history has taught me anything, it's not to expect the Gauchos to run the table. I am still confident in their ability to finish the regular season first. Also, don't forget the Bracket Buster match-up scheduled for February 23. If the Gauchos get back on a roll, they can land a favorable opponent. Win this game and that RPI starts to rise. Lose the game and you may as well turn the RPI into RIP, as in the Gauchos will be nothing higher than a 13 seed IF they can make the tournament.
Looking now at strength of schedule (SOS), it's clear that our conference plays a bunch of cupcakes in the non-conference. This only perpetuates the low RPI's. Teams don't want to play our conference, unless they're looking for an easy win and it doesn't do anything for their RPI if they lose. It's a lose-lose situation for them and win-win for us. However, this reminds of someone we can look to for inspiration. Pat Hill, the Fresno State football coach. I don't know if anyone remembers when David Carr was good in football (Seriously, he was at a point), but FSU was bursting onto the scene. Hill is truly a bulldog. That man has stated on multiple occasions that he will play any team, anywhere and at anytime.
That needs to be the Big West mantra. Of course, they might get steamrolled the first couple seasons they try this. After a while, though, you start to get competitive because of recruiting. You sell your players on the strong out-of-conference schedule that will make them battle hardened warriors come Big West play.
I digress, back to the SOS. Kudos to UCI for playing a manly schedule as compared to the rest of the Big West. Right now, their SOS sits at 73. Thats what games against Nevada, Mississippi State, Utah, Sam Houston St., Texas A&M and South Carolina will do to you. Nothing like a Monday morning QB, but maybe that's one part of the reason UCSB lost. UCI played a fairly demanding schedule with travel all over the US, playing teams in several of the BCS conferences. Maybe that's what did it, just a thought.
Now, we head to kenpom's stats. Let me digress for a minute. For those of you who like to get some good stats, click on the links to the side. By stats, I mean stats that you don't see in the boxscore. If that's the case, kenpom is the way to go.
First, we're going to look at offensive efficiency. UCSB is the fourth most efficient team in the conference from an offensive standpoint. For every 100 possessions, UCSB should score 102.8. By contrast, CSUF, the most efficient team in the conference scores 110.0 points every 100 possessions. Just for reference, the most efficient team in the country is Texas. They score 125.1 points per 100. The season average of all Division I schools is 100.7.
Save for CSUN, the offensive efficiency standings basically mirror the Big West standings. The most offensively efficient teams are at the top and worst are at the bottom.
Individually, Ivan Elliot is the Gauchos most efficient player, according to kenpom. Elliot comes in at a rating of 114.6 (306th in NCAA). Al Harris comes in at 110.6 (494). Devine, Powell and Pajevic all come in above 100. Everyone else is under 100. For the record, kenpom believes that anything above 110 is good, while anyone above 120 is excellent (provided that they are the workhorse of the team).
UCSB's turnover rate really concerns me because a couple of players are very high. Gibb turns the ball over at a rate of 43.2% of his possessions. I like to think that the coaches have noticed this and are working with Gibb to reduce this number. Also, Joyner (30%) and Roemer (37.1%), two of our guards are fairly high as well. This is fairly nitpicky, but a reduction in these turnovers will go a long ways towards increasing offensive efficiency.
On a team note, I wanted to point out that Bob Williams doesn't utilize his bench as much as I believe he should. Our bench has played 29.7% of the total minutes (218th in the nation). I'm on the belief that you can and need to create depth on your team. I'm not saying that he should strive for 50% bench/starter ratio, but I believe if they want to maintain an up-tempo style, they need to increase those bench minutes before it becomes a baptism by fire. This too will go a long ways toward increasing that offensive efficiency.
Ok, this is getting long, but we're going to finish up on the defensive side of the ball. This is going to be short.
Surprisingly, defensive efficiency doesn't appear to be as indicative of the standings as one would think. Pacific is the third worst team in the Big West, while Cal Poly is fourth best. UCSB has quite an impressive defensive efficiency with a 93.3 rating (67th nationally). Only CSUN at 92.2 comes in ahead of them.
This is a big improvement of last season when they were 103.3, 2006 (100.3), 2005 (100.9) and 2004 (96.1). This is one area where we can say for certain that the new defense seems to really be working.
TGM's prognosis: UCSB needs to increase their offensive efficiency.
Recommendation: Increase the bench minutes to keep players healthy and fresh for ends of the game and the end of the season. Reduce the high turnover percentages to give the team more chances on the offensive end.
I feel that if UCSB can make only these small improvements, it will go a long way toward an NCAA berth. Of course, there may be some blips on the screen from time to time, but, if these changes are made, consider them to be nothing more than an anomaly. I don't want to predict anything because I usually disappoint myself, but if Bob Williams is the coach I hope he is, I forsee no more than 2 losses the rest of the way (in Big West).
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Another ESPN College Basketball Insider Shout-Out
Today, while driving home from school, I turned on the ESPN College Basketball Insider and UCSB gets another mention, albeit, a very short mention. If you fast forward to 15:15 of the podcast, you'll hear Doug Gottleib (who "pimps" UCSB like none other on that podcast) discussing Washington State Cougar point guard Taylor Rochestie.
Rochestie is a native Santa Barbaran who attended SB High. I don't know the story, but as Doug Gottleib tells it, UCSB wanted Rochestie to walk-on. Instead, he attended Tulane and transferred to WSU. Now, he's the starting point guard for the Cougars. Not bad, huh?
The point that Gottleib makes is a good one (and this segues into my post which is actually going to be above this). Washington State is recruiting players who (1) fit their philosophy and (2) they're not afraid to go after players who are not highly recruited.
This is an important message that the "UCSB can never win like the old days because we can't get the players and we don't have the resources" type of fans need to remember. WSU is the #8 team in the country right now. Of course, they have the conference advantage. However, conference isn't everything. They're not afraid to recruit players who aren't highly recruited. For example, one of their starting guards, Kyle Weaver (as Doug G. tells it) had only one other offer and it was from Bradley University. Moral of the story: even in the internet age, it's possible to find guys like Kyle Weaver and get them to your school if you look in the right spots.
Below is the ESPN link to their page for the podcast.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espnradio/podcast/archive?id=2689788
Rochestie is a native Santa Barbaran who attended SB High. I don't know the story, but as Doug Gottleib tells it, UCSB wanted Rochestie to walk-on. Instead, he attended Tulane and transferred to WSU. Now, he's the starting point guard for the Cougars. Not bad, huh?
The point that Gottleib makes is a good one (and this segues into my post which is actually going to be above this). Washington State is recruiting players who (1) fit their philosophy and (2) they're not afraid to go after players who are not highly recruited.
This is an important message that the "UCSB can never win like the old days because we can't get the players and we don't have the resources" type of fans need to remember. WSU is the #8 team in the country right now. Of course, they have the conference advantage. However, conference isn't everything. They're not afraid to recruit players who aren't highly recruited. For example, one of their starting guards, Kyle Weaver (as Doug G. tells it) had only one other offer and it was from Bradley University. Moral of the story: even in the internet age, it's possible to find guys like Kyle Weaver and get them to your school if you look in the right spots.
Below is the ESPN link to their page for the podcast.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espnradio/podcast/archive?id=2689788
Sunday, January 13, 2008
Nooooiiicee!!
Nice job UCSB! That is the kind of performance that I'm talking about. Very impressive. Every once in a while, you get down a good friend of yours. Then all of a sudden they come along and do something that makes you realize why you're friends with him in the first place.
With their victory on Saturday night over Fullerton, 87-72 was very noooiiiiccee. First, UCSB stopped the two game losing streak. Second, they beat up on the current second place team in the Big West. I seriously doubt that the Gauchos were having an inferiority complex during this two game losing streak (Kind of like when you head downtown with your buddy, and he sees a girl he's been trying to get with, but she's kicking it with a "loser", in your opinion and his. To get over it, well, you get the picture), but it was nice to get a victory over one of the better Big West teams.
Onto the Four Factors:
Shooting %:
UCSB 64.8%
CSUF 33.9%
This was by far, the most impressive stat of the night. UCSB was a Deon Tresvant-esqe 9 for 15 from beyond the arc. Even their 2pt % was very impressive (64.8). That is smoking hot. Hopefully, UCSB bottled up some of this energy they had last night and open a can of whoop ass every game here on out. Clearly, this was our most impressive shooting performance of the season, and we've had some pretty impressive ones. The high percentage masked all of our other weaknesses in this game, as you'll see.
On the flip side, it looks like we held CSUF to some pretty bad shots. Josh Akognon was particularly woeful, 1-11 from the 3. Yowza!
Offensive Rebounds:
UCSB 6
CSUF 18
By this point, we've come to realize that UCSB isn't a very good offensive rebounding team. However, when you shoot almost 65% from the field, you don't really have to worry about getting the boards because there are none to get.
On the other hand, we can't allow teams to get 18 second chance opportunities. That's gotta get cut down. I'm sure that Coach Williams will work on that over the "break." That's the kind of thing that can really come back to bite you in the ass.
FT's:
UCSB 8-9
CSUF 25-31
This really stood out to me for a couple of reasons. First, UCSB is a phenomenal free throw shooting team (obviously, they wouldn't be in the national Top 10 if they weren't). Even though they only got to the line 9 times, anytime you're making all of them but one, you're having a pretty good day. Also, it seems as if the Gauchos were relying on their jumper this game because it was falling, so there was no need to get to the hole.
Secondly, 31 free throws? What the heck went on here? In my experience, as both a player and a coach, when two teams are playing, the style on both sides tends to mimic each other (i.e. if one team is fouling a lot, usually, the other team is hacking just as much). The FT discrepancy strikes me as a home field advantage for the Fullerton. I seriously doubt that UCSB committed that many shooting fouls, while CSUF committed only a fourth of that. We'll go ahead and assume that the refs were being fair, but that's scary that they would call that many shooting fouls.
Third, if UCSB didn't commit as many shooting fouls on CSUF, this game would have been even more lopsided. They got a full 25 of their 72 points from FT's alone.
Turnovers/Steals:
UCSB 19 turnovers, 8 steals, 18 forced turnovers
CSUF 18 turnovers, 11 steals, 19 forced turnovers
This is another category where UCSB's advantage that they enjoyed during out of conference play has seemingly evaporated (although, statistically, UCSB is averaging less turnovers during Big West than all games combined). UCSB is now running a turnover deficit. Although it was only a difference of one, the Gauchos need to work on protecting the ball with more care.
On the plus side, no one really stunk it up with turnovers. However, the guard (to be expected) trio of Harris, Powell, and Roemer accounted for 11 of the 19 total. A little more care with the ball is all I ask.
All in all, it was a good performance. The only thing that I'm concerned about is our hack-a-Shaq strategy that was employed (willingly or not) on CSUF. Cut those down and this game is a more brutal beatdown that it already was.
UCSB has a nice layoff this week. They don't play again until a Saturday match-up at Cal Poly , who is 1-3 in conference play. Let's make that 1-4 after the Saturday.
My prediction: CSUN is just keeping the #1 seat warm for UCSB. My advice to the Matadors, enjoy it while you can because like the law of gravity, what goes up, must come down.
With their victory on Saturday night over Fullerton, 87-72 was very noooiiiiccee. First, UCSB stopped the two game losing streak. Second, they beat up on the current second place team in the Big West. I seriously doubt that the Gauchos were having an inferiority complex during this two game losing streak (Kind of like when you head downtown with your buddy, and he sees a girl he's been trying to get with, but she's kicking it with a "loser", in your opinion and his. To get over it, well, you get the picture), but it was nice to get a victory over one of the better Big West teams.
Onto the Four Factors:
Shooting %:
UCSB 64.8%
CSUF 33.9%
This was by far, the most impressive stat of the night. UCSB was a Deon Tresvant-esqe 9 for 15 from beyond the arc. Even their 2pt % was very impressive (64.8). That is smoking hot. Hopefully, UCSB bottled up some of this energy they had last night and open a can of whoop ass every game here on out. Clearly, this was our most impressive shooting performance of the season, and we've had some pretty impressive ones. The high percentage masked all of our other weaknesses in this game, as you'll see.
On the flip side, it looks like we held CSUF to some pretty bad shots. Josh Akognon was particularly woeful, 1-11 from the 3. Yowza!
Offensive Rebounds:
UCSB 6
CSUF 18
By this point, we've come to realize that UCSB isn't a very good offensive rebounding team. However, when you shoot almost 65% from the field, you don't really have to worry about getting the boards because there are none to get.
On the other hand, we can't allow teams to get 18 second chance opportunities. That's gotta get cut down. I'm sure that Coach Williams will work on that over the "break." That's the kind of thing that can really come back to bite you in the ass.
FT's:
UCSB 8-9
CSUF 25-31
This really stood out to me for a couple of reasons. First, UCSB is a phenomenal free throw shooting team (obviously, they wouldn't be in the national Top 10 if they weren't). Even though they only got to the line 9 times, anytime you're making all of them but one, you're having a pretty good day. Also, it seems as if the Gauchos were relying on their jumper this game because it was falling, so there was no need to get to the hole.
Secondly, 31 free throws? What the heck went on here? In my experience, as both a player and a coach, when two teams are playing, the style on both sides tends to mimic each other (i.e. if one team is fouling a lot, usually, the other team is hacking just as much). The FT discrepancy strikes me as a home field advantage for the Fullerton. I seriously doubt that UCSB committed that many shooting fouls, while CSUF committed only a fourth of that. We'll go ahead and assume that the refs were being fair, but that's scary that they would call that many shooting fouls.
Third, if UCSB didn't commit as many shooting fouls on CSUF, this game would have been even more lopsided. They got a full 25 of their 72 points from FT's alone.
Turnovers/Steals:
UCSB 19 turnovers, 8 steals, 18 forced turnovers
CSUF 18 turnovers, 11 steals, 19 forced turnovers
This is another category where UCSB's advantage that they enjoyed during out of conference play has seemingly evaporated (although, statistically, UCSB is averaging less turnovers during Big West than all games combined). UCSB is now running a turnover deficit. Although it was only a difference of one, the Gauchos need to work on protecting the ball with more care.
On the plus side, no one really stunk it up with turnovers. However, the guard (to be expected) trio of Harris, Powell, and Roemer accounted for 11 of the 19 total. A little more care with the ball is all I ask.
All in all, it was a good performance. The only thing that I'm concerned about is our hack-a-Shaq strategy that was employed (willingly or not) on CSUF. Cut those down and this game is a more brutal beatdown that it already was.
UCSB has a nice layoff this week. They don't play again until a Saturday match-up at Cal Poly , who is 1-3 in conference play. Let's make that 1-4 after the Saturday.
My prediction: CSUN is just keeping the #1 seat warm for UCSB. My advice to the Matadors, enjoy it while you can because like the law of gravity, what goes up, must come down.
Saturday, January 12, 2008
Duel Post: UCSB at CSUF and Recap of Loss at UCI
First, the real Bob Williams has once again revealed himself to all of us in Gaucholand. A nice non-conference record with wins against all the teams we were supposed to beat and losses at the two teams we weren't.
However, once Bob Williams gets into the mediocre Big West, he immediately gets into a two game losing streak. What is the cause? I don't know.
Maybe Bob is too complacent with his job. Maybe he's a smart guy who knows how to "manage expectations." If so, my hat goes off to him because he had everybody fooled this year. You don't want to be a Negative Nellie, but there comes a time when you have to take every win with a grain of salt (which will be done on this site, here on out).
Getting back to the shitty job Bob does in Big West. I really do think he's too complacent to care. He knows that if he never goes to the NCAA Tournament and doesn't have a major fuck-up, he'd probably keep this job as long as he wants (hopefully this changes with the new AD). That way, the people don't expect an NCAA Tournament berth and they know nothing different. This reminds of a summer job that I once had working at a sports camp. Every day for lunch, one of the camp counselors would ride his bike down the street to get his lunch. This guy also proceeded to consume a pitcher at each lunch and then ride back for the second half of the day. I asked him if he ever thought he would get caught by one of the kids, and he gave me a brilliant response. He said that if comes back to work after lunch every day with a buzz, the campers don't know anything else. They'll never suspect that this guy is slightly drunk because he does the same thing every day. They don't know anything different.
This is exactly what Bob Williams is doing. He never goes to the NCAA Tournament, so the people don't know any different. Brilliant? Stupid? I don't know, but we need to hold his feet to the fire.
Now on to the loss at UCI. I felt that UCSB would have a huge come-back game against UCI. I was flat out wrong. I couldn't even believe the scoreboard when I first saw it online in the first half. Seriously, this is a team with a $1 million plus budget losing to a team with a $100,000 budget. That is some serious parity.
Onto the Four Factors:
Shooting %: UCI shot 49.1% compared to our 46%. Anytime this happens, you better be making more threes or getting some turnovers. UCSB did neither. By the way, Nedim Pajevic, stop shooting threes (see below).
Offensive Rebounds: We lost 8 to 13. I don't want to disparage our players, but I can't help myself. What the fuck were our big guys doing? 5 of our rebounds were from our guards. We had a tremendous height advantage here and we stunk the place up. Ridiculous.
FT's: This was basically a tie. We went 7 for 10 and they went 6 for 11.
Turnovers: We had 14 turnovers to 5 steals. Doesn't take a CYO coach to figure it out that that shit just doesn't cut it. UCI had 16 turnovers, but got 10 steals. We must have been sloppy with the ball.
EDITOR'S NOTE: It's been called to my attention that there was an error in my post. I apologize. Bob Williams did go to the NCAA tournament with his recruits. More on that beautiful post to come tonight.
Tonight's game is against CSUF at Fullerton.
Here are the scouting reports -
UCSB: http://www.kenpom.com/sr.php?team=UC%20Santa%20Barbara
CSUF: http://www.kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Cal%20St.%20Fullerton
Four Factors:
1. Shooting %
UCSB: 45.5%
CSUF: 48.1%
2. Offensive Rebounds
UCSB: 9.7
CSUF: 11.4
3. FT%
UCSB: 77.9%
CSUF: 65.5%
4. Turnovers
UCSB: 19.8 turnovers/game opponents, 15.8 turnovers/game
CSUF: 14.6 turnovers/game for CSUF
There will be no prediction today. I don't have a good feeling though. I'll leave it at that.
However, once Bob Williams gets into the mediocre Big West, he immediately gets into a two game losing streak. What is the cause? I don't know.
Maybe Bob is too complacent with his job. Maybe he's a smart guy who knows how to "manage expectations." If so, my hat goes off to him because he had everybody fooled this year. You don't want to be a Negative Nellie, but there comes a time when you have to take every win with a grain of salt (which will be done on this site, here on out).
Getting back to the shitty job Bob does in Big West. I really do think he's too complacent to care. He knows that if he never goes to the NCAA Tournament and doesn't have a major fuck-up, he'd probably keep this job as long as he wants (hopefully this changes with the new AD). That way, the people don't expect an NCAA Tournament berth and they know nothing different. This reminds of a summer job that I once had working at a sports camp. Every day for lunch, one of the camp counselors would ride his bike down the street to get his lunch. This guy also proceeded to consume a pitcher at each lunch and then ride back for the second half of the day. I asked him if he ever thought he would get caught by one of the kids, and he gave me a brilliant response. He said that if comes back to work after lunch every day with a buzz, the campers don't know anything else. They'll never suspect that this guy is slightly drunk because he does the same thing every day. They don't know anything different.
This is exactly what Bob Williams is doing. He never goes to the NCAA Tournament, so the people don't know any different. Brilliant? Stupid? I don't know, but we need to hold his feet to the fire.
Now on to the loss at UCI. I felt that UCSB would have a huge come-back game against UCI. I was flat out wrong. I couldn't even believe the scoreboard when I first saw it online in the first half. Seriously, this is a team with a $1 million plus budget losing to a team with a $100,000 budget. That is some serious parity.
Onto the Four Factors:
Shooting %: UCI shot 49.1% compared to our 46%. Anytime this happens, you better be making more threes or getting some turnovers. UCSB did neither. By the way, Nedim Pajevic, stop shooting threes (see below).
Offensive Rebounds: We lost 8 to 13. I don't want to disparage our players, but I can't help myself. What the fuck were our big guys doing? 5 of our rebounds were from our guards. We had a tremendous height advantage here and we stunk the place up. Ridiculous.
FT's: This was basically a tie. We went 7 for 10 and they went 6 for 11.
Turnovers: We had 14 turnovers to 5 steals. Doesn't take a CYO coach to figure it out that that shit just doesn't cut it. UCI had 16 turnovers, but got 10 steals. We must have been sloppy with the ball.
EDITOR'S NOTE: It's been called to my attention that there was an error in my post. I apologize. Bob Williams did go to the NCAA tournament with his recruits. More on that beautiful post to come tonight.
Tonight's game is against CSUF at Fullerton.
Here are the scouting reports -
UCSB: http://www.kenpom.com/sr.php?team=UC%20Santa%20Barbara
CSUF: http://www.kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Cal%20St.%20Fullerton
Four Factors:
1. Shooting %
UCSB: 45.5%
CSUF: 48.1%
2. Offensive Rebounds
UCSB: 9.7
CSUF: 11.4
3. FT%
UCSB: 77.9%
CSUF: 65.5%
4. Turnovers
UCSB: 19.8 turnovers/game opponents, 15.8 turnovers/game
CSUF: 14.6 turnovers/game for CSUF
There will be no prediction today. I don't have a good feeling though. I'll leave it at that.
Thursday, January 10, 2008
1/10/08: UCSB at UCI
UCSB Gauchos (12-3) vs. UC-Irvine Anteaters (5-9)
January 10, 2008, 7:05 p.m. (PST)
Tonight, the Gauchos look to get back on track after their defeat at the hands of CSUN. While I said I wouldn't be surprise if UCSB lost to CSUN because of their depth; I was still very surprised when I saw the boxscore after the game. I'm willing to chalk it up to one bad-ass performance by one Mr. Tresvant. Nothing like getting UCI, with their $150,000 budget, to get you back on track.
Here's the tale of the tape -
UCSB: http://www.kenpom.com/sr.php?team=UC%20Santa%20Barbara
UCI: http://www.kenpom.com/sr.php?team=UC%20Irvine
As promised, we're going to break the game down utilizing the Four Factors (from Dean Oliver). The four factors are (1) Shooting %, (2) Offensive Rebounds, (3) Getting to the FT Line and Shooting a High %, and (4) Creating/Committing Turnovers.
Factor #1: Shooting %
UCSB 45.4 %
UCI 45.7%
Here, the edge goes slightly to UCI. I think it's so close that the FG % is inconsequential.
Factor #2: Offensive Rebounds (per game)
UCSB 9.8
UCI 8.4
Obviously, the edge goes to UCSB. They're getting fully one more offensive board per game than UCI is. UCSB needs to exploit the height advantage that they are going to have against UCI tonight. UCSB is clearly the taller team with more height at each of the positions.
Factor #3: Getting to the FT Line and Shooting a High %
UCSB 208-266, 78.2%
UCI 153-217, 70.5%
This is clearly where the game could be won. If UCSB gets to the line at the rate they are getting there and shoots their percentage, they'll have a huge advantage. I think we can give the advantage to UCSB.
Factor #4: Turnovers
UCSB 15.9, opponents 19.7
UCI 13.1, opponents 16.4
Again, the advantage goes to UCSB. I think UCSB should be able to force some more turnovers from these guys. They also need to be cognizant of how many turnovers they're committing (although, it comes with the territory). If they can force UCI into a few more turnovers than they're used to, this should be an immense advantage.
Conclusion: Do I really need to tell you? I like UCSB and I think that this is the perfect game to get back on track with. If they can stick to the averages and then some, this game won't be nearly as close as I think it might be. However, this is the Big West and if Bob Williams has shown us anything, it's that his coaching ability declines when he gets to the Big West. Must be the super crazy, super intense Big West. I'm hoping he proves me wrong tonight.
Also, we get to see how well these four factors play out. It would have been so much easier if there was five because then we'd have a majority. Oh well. Talk to you tomorrow.
January 10, 2008, 7:05 p.m. (PST)
Tonight, the Gauchos look to get back on track after their defeat at the hands of CSUN. While I said I wouldn't be surprise if UCSB lost to CSUN because of their depth; I was still very surprised when I saw the boxscore after the game. I'm willing to chalk it up to one bad-ass performance by one Mr. Tresvant. Nothing like getting UCI, with their $150,000 budget, to get you back on track.
Here's the tale of the tape -
UCSB: http://www.kenpom.com/sr.php?team=UC%20Santa%20Barbara
UCI: http://www.kenpom.com/sr.php?team=UC%20Irvine
As promised, we're going to break the game down utilizing the Four Factors (from Dean Oliver). The four factors are (1) Shooting %, (2) Offensive Rebounds, (3) Getting to the FT Line and Shooting a High %, and (4) Creating/Committing Turnovers.
Factor #1: Shooting %
UCSB 45.4 %
UCI 45.7%
Here, the edge goes slightly to UCI. I think it's so close that the FG % is inconsequential.
Factor #2: Offensive Rebounds (per game)
UCSB 9.8
UCI 8.4
Obviously, the edge goes to UCSB. They're getting fully one more offensive board per game than UCI is. UCSB needs to exploit the height advantage that they are going to have against UCI tonight. UCSB is clearly the taller team with more height at each of the positions.
Factor #3: Getting to the FT Line and Shooting a High %
UCSB 208-266, 78.2%
UCI 153-217, 70.5%
This is clearly where the game could be won. If UCSB gets to the line at the rate they are getting there and shoots their percentage, they'll have a huge advantage. I think we can give the advantage to UCSB.
Factor #4: Turnovers
UCSB 15.9, opponents 19.7
UCI 13.1, opponents 16.4
Again, the advantage goes to UCSB. I think UCSB should be able to force some more turnovers from these guys. They also need to be cognizant of how many turnovers they're committing (although, it comes with the territory). If they can force UCI into a few more turnovers than they're used to, this should be an immense advantage.
Conclusion: Do I really need to tell you? I like UCSB and I think that this is the perfect game to get back on track with. If they can stick to the averages and then some, this game won't be nearly as close as I think it might be. However, this is the Big West and if Bob Williams has shown us anything, it's that his coaching ability declines when he gets to the Big West. Must be the super crazy, super intense Big West. I'm hoping he proves me wrong tonight.
Also, we get to see how well these four factors play out. It would have been so much easier if there was five because then we'd have a majority. Oh well. Talk to you tomorrow.
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
Introducing the Four Factors
Oh yeah...you're impressed, admit. Last year, I read the book "Basketball On Paper," by Dean Oliver. I was impressed with his analysis. Although his data primarily translated to the NBA game, TGM is utilizing his "four crucial aspects of the game"(A clever nickname will be unveiled soon, feel free to submit ideas) for the college game and the Gauchos.
Oliver says that teams are good if they control four aspects of the game, which he calls his "four crucial aspects." Conversely, bad teams are bad because they don't control. We're going to experiment and see how well this translates to the Gauchos.
The Four Factors are:
1. Shooting percentage from the field
2. Getting offensive rebounds
3. Committing/Forcing turnovers
4. Going to the foul line a lot and making the shots
TGM is trying to make a chart to use for each game. If I can become technologically sophisticated in the next day or so, I'll get it up for the UCI game.
I think it will be interesting to see how this plays out. However, I took a look at some of the Gauchos games to see how well this works out. For example, in the Gauchos loss to CSUN they "won" two categories (FT, and Shooting %), "tied" one (Offensive rebounds) and "lost" the turnover battle.
In the matchup against LBSU, the Gauchos "won" three categories (Offensive rebounds, turnovers, and FT's), while "losing" only shooting %.
Lastly, against Eastern Washington, UCSB "won" two categories (shooting % and FT), "tied" turnovers and "lost" offensive rebounds.
As you can see, UCSB has to win at least two categories to win the game, and even then it's not guaranteed. Because I don't want to go through the entire schedule I can't confirm this, but I have a feeling that UCSB won at least two categories in each victory and probably three.
On the other hand, we might not be using this measures very long because they are pretty obvious. We'll give it a go and see what happens.
Go Gauchos!
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
Gaucho Manifesto #5
Today, it's all about dolla's and cents baby! Just like my homies Fat Joe and Lil' Wayne, we're gonna make it rain tonight with all the dollar numbers we're dropping.Making it rain is more 2007 than 2008, but here it goes.
As part of The Gaucho Manifesto's mission, we believe that UCSB has the goods to take the Big West title every year and be a staple of the NCAA Tournament, much like Gonzaga is to the WCC. As a result, I do some research to back up my opinions.
Clearly, today is a big day in Gaucho Nation since Gary Cunningham retired. No longer are we stuck with a crusty ol' dude in the AD's chair. Here's hoping that Chancellor Yang can get fired up for something other than championing UCSB's academic reputation and trying to refute UCSB's party school image (For the record, TGM thinks you can have your cake and eat it to. In other words, both can co-exist), and hire one bad-ass AD. This is a post for another day, but I already have an excellent candidate in mind.
Now on to the real post. Clearly, we can all agree that UCSB should be the class of the Big West in basketball, but they haven't been. What's the cause of that? We may never know, but I think once you see these numbers, you are going to fighting mad.
EDITOR'S NOTE: It has been called to my attention that I have again been incorrect on some numbers. UCI didn't actually have expenses of only $100,000+. I've changed this post to reflect that. I was relying on the website www.bbstate.com. The site that was referred to me was http://www2.indystar.com/NCAA_financial_reports/revenue_stat/show . I'll go ahead and assume this is correct because it makes way more sense. You can disregard the UCI bashing below for their "shoestring" budget.
First, I'm going to list some numbers. Try to think what these numbers are:
$1,612, 923
$1,505,592
$1,141,893
$1,012, 697
$965,993
$964,009
$905,706
$871,565
$684,576
These numbers are the 2007 fiscal year basketball budget for each member of the Big West Conference. Below are the numbers matched up with each school.
$1,612, 923 - Pacific
$1,505,592 - UCSB
$1,141,893 - LBSU
$1,012, 697 - Northridge
$965,993 - UCR
$964,009 - Irvine
$905,706 - Cal Poly
$871,565 - Fullerton
$684,576 - Davis
The first thing that popped into my mind was the amount of money UCI spends on their program. I quadruple checked that number because I was almost certain that it was incorrect (by the way, these numbers come from www.bbstate.com). It's correct, which is pretty ridiculous.
EDITOR'S NOTE: See above, bbstate is wrong.
Now, what irks me is that UCSB has the second highest budget in the conference and the highest of the public schools, yet we always seem to find a way to lose in the semis of the Big West Tournament. To me, this is a travesty. UCSB has the second highest budget, yet we've only been to the NCAA Tournament once during the last ten or so years.
Someone is not doing their job. It's either Bob Williams or Gary Cunningham. I know that money doesn't necessarily translate into success (see: NY Yankees), but there is something to be said for having a much higher budget than most teams in your conference. After all, the Big West's NCAA berths since 2000 have gone solely to the 4 highest budgetary teams.
Below is a list of the Big West NCAA berths:
2007: LBSU
2006: Pacific
2005: Utah State, Pacific
2004: Pacific
2003: Utah State
2002: UCSB
2001: Utah State
2000: Utah State
1999: New Mexico State
1998: Utah State
1997: Pacific
Does anything stick out to you? Of the remaining Big West teams, UCSB, with the second highest budget has only 1 appearance in the NCAA tournament. Pacific spends $100,000 more than us and they've been three times over the last five years.
A budget isn't indicative of how successful a program can be. However, comparing budgets is useful when you compare them to others in your conference. When other teams with the same or less money than our team are making the tournament with more frequency, some questions need to be asked. We shouldn't sit on our asses and always look off to the greener pastures of next year. UCSB clearly has more resources than everyone but Pacific, but we routinely come up short.
Someone is not using our money wisely (after all, the taxpayers of California pay for this mostly). If you were in any other job and you had the second highest budget, but your department kept underperforming year after year, what do you think your boss would do to you? Your ass would be fired. Unfortunately, Bob Williams may have the cushiest job around. An AD who doesn't give a shit. A fan base who doesn't really give a shit. A chancellor who doesn't give a shit about athletics. Without any expectations, he has nothing to worry about. If we keep giving him money and he keeps giving us the same result without any consequences, he assumes it's ok (you know the old story, "If you give a mouse a cookie"). Well it's not.
This money needs to be spent more wisely. Use it to bring in better recruits, to play a tougher non-conference schedule. Do something, but please don't lose in the Big West Tournament.
Lastly, I'm trying to procure an expense report of the men's basketball expenditures for last year to see exactly how this money is being spent. If anyone has access to this, please drop me a comment.
Apparently, It's True!
Follow the link to see the thread post with a letter purportedly from Gary Cunningham announcing his retirement.
http://p086.ezboard.com/Rumor-Mill--Cunningham-retires/fucsbgauchosfrm2.showMessage?topicID=10586.topic
UPDATE: Better late than never, TGM has been doing law school work all evening. Here is the article on the UCSB website.
http://ucsbgauchos.cstv.com/genrel/010808aaa.html
http://p086.ezboard.com/Rumor-Mill--Cunningham-retires/fucsbgauchosfrm2.showMessage?topicID=10586.topic
UPDATE: Better late than never, TGM has been doing law school work all evening. Here is the article on the UCSB website.
http://ucsbgauchos.cstv.com/genrel/010808aaa.html
Gary Cunningham Retiring?
Ok folks, this is solely a RUMOR. However, there is a report on the Gaucho Loco message board that Gary Cunningham has put in his resignation today. I will try to confirm this one way or another, but keep posted. This is some serious (ly good) news.
Personally, I hope this news is true and I'm sure that most in Gaucholand feel the same way.
Now, the next question becomes, who replaces Cunningham?
Monday, January 7, 2008
BCS Championship Game
In honor of tonight's BCS game and because I'm really bored right now (not really) (Spring Semester of law school started up today and TGM is at school on Mondays from 8:20am-10:10pm), I was thinking about the different mascots in tonight's game between the LSU Tigers and the Ohio State Buckeyes.
What really got me thinking was a question I saw posed on the blog, Sunday Morning QB; who has the better mascot? The question in my mind is simple, there should never be a dispute. Before I allow my opinion to soil this page, take a look at each mascot.
Yes, OSU has Brutus the Buckeye. Whatever. LSU has a real live on tiger on their campus! Holy Shit! His name is Mike the Tiger and he probably lives better than me or you. Don't believe me? Go the link below.
www.mikethetiger.com
I thought it was pretty sweet that LSU has a huge tiger compound on their campus on which they house Mike the Tiger. Do you see where I'm going with this?
What if UCSB had a real live Gaucho on their campus? Of course, this is completely ridiculous. Besides the fact that slavery has been outlawed for a long time now (and I do not support it in any which way), would you really expect our administration to acquire one? Yeah right. There is no way we could ever distract them from their neverending quest to rid the world..I mean, IV, of beer, parties and everything else that is good. We all have our priorities straight and I've come to the conclusion we need a real-live Gaucho (haha). We'll give him his own land and a herd of cattle and he can tend his flock near campus.
I know this post is completely ridiculous. I actually love the Gaucho name. Hey, TGM has a busy day today and these 15 minutes were all I could spare.
Enjoy the game tonight. Tomorrow, the post will be much more thought provoking. I guaran-damn-tee it!
Sunday, January 6, 2008
Deon Tresvant is the Man!
Most of you reading this blog are already aware that UCSB lost to CSUN last night, 88-84. I attended a dinner party last night, so I didn't get to listen to the game, but two words sum up how I felt when I saw the score: shocked and stunned.
I think everyone can agree that this was going to be a good test for UCSB. They took the test, and they failed. Now, it's back to the drawing board. I still feel that the Gauchos can take the Big West NCAA berth, but they're not as good as I thought.
This game requires little analysis. Looking at the boxscore (link below), there is only one thing that stands out to me, and that's 3 point shooting. CSUN shot 11 for 21 from beyond the arc. Anytime you shoot greater than 50% and you're chucking up the three ball like it's going out of style, you're going to win most games. On the flip side, UCSB shot 4 for 15, a measly 26%. That, my friends, is the game.
http://ucsbgauchos.cstv.com/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2007-2008/ucsbmb15.html
The next thing I asked is who the f*ck is Deon Tresvant? Well, take a good look at him because he was ridiculous last night.
Anyone who shoots 7 for 11 from the three and doesn't start deserves an invite to my Rec League basketball team. Deon, you're invite is in the mail. Below is the photo of my squad. With someone like you, we could dominate our league.
On the serious side, and without seeing the game on film, I don't know what to make of Tresvant's 31 points. Maybe the guy was just unconscious and there was nothing we could do to stop him. But, on the other hand, maybe we could have done more to stop the guy. You would think that after his third or fourth made 3 pointer, Coach Williams would have done a little something special for Deon. Maybe a 3-2 zone, a box and one, who knows, go crazy, the guy wasn't missing.
CSUN had great balance with 4 scorers going over 10 points. One of my keys was stopping the double digit scorers and take a couple out of their game. The Gauchos sort of took my advice and it led to Deon scoring 31 points.
Everything else on the boxscore was pretty even. We had a lot of turnovers though today, and that can't bode well. It needs to be corrected.
On the UCSB side of things, the score wasn't as bad as it seemed. James Powell appears to have been the weak link last night. The guy went 1 for 6 from beyond the arc. Usually, when I'm playing, if I shoot three 3's and don't hit any of them, I stop shooting them (unless I'm wide open) and focus on getting the two. That's probably also why Powell plays D-1 basketball and I write this blog. If you take away Powell's threes, we go 3-9 from downtown. Not great, but much better. We were balanced on offense, got to the line, made our FT's and rebounded well. However, it wasn't meant to be.
I'm willing to chalk this defeat up to a lucky run by CSUN and that it won't happen again. However, CSUN shows us that all it takes is one good game or one hot player to ruin your game plan.
Next up, the Gauchos play the UCI Anteaters on Thursday.
Check back all week because I've got some good material to add to the blog each day.
I think everyone can agree that this was going to be a good test for UCSB. They took the test, and they failed. Now, it's back to the drawing board. I still feel that the Gauchos can take the Big West NCAA berth, but they're not as good as I thought.
This game requires little analysis. Looking at the boxscore (link below), there is only one thing that stands out to me, and that's 3 point shooting. CSUN shot 11 for 21 from beyond the arc. Anytime you shoot greater than 50% and you're chucking up the three ball like it's going out of style, you're going to win most games. On the flip side, UCSB shot 4 for 15, a measly 26%. That, my friends, is the game.
http://ucsbgauchos.cstv.com/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2007-2008/ucsbmb15.html
The next thing I asked is who the f*ck is Deon Tresvant? Well, take a good look at him because he was ridiculous last night.
Anyone who shoots 7 for 11 from the three and doesn't start deserves an invite to my Rec League basketball team. Deon, you're invite is in the mail. Below is the photo of my squad. With someone like you, we could dominate our league.
On the serious side, and without seeing the game on film, I don't know what to make of Tresvant's 31 points. Maybe the guy was just unconscious and there was nothing we could do to stop him. But, on the other hand, maybe we could have done more to stop the guy. You would think that after his third or fourth made 3 pointer, Coach Williams would have done a little something special for Deon. Maybe a 3-2 zone, a box and one, who knows, go crazy, the guy wasn't missing.
CSUN had great balance with 4 scorers going over 10 points. One of my keys was stopping the double digit scorers and take a couple out of their game. The Gauchos sort of took my advice and it led to Deon scoring 31 points.
Everything else on the boxscore was pretty even. We had a lot of turnovers though today, and that can't bode well. It needs to be corrected.
On the UCSB side of things, the score wasn't as bad as it seemed. James Powell appears to have been the weak link last night. The guy went 1 for 6 from beyond the arc. Usually, when I'm playing, if I shoot three 3's and don't hit any of them, I stop shooting them (unless I'm wide open) and focus on getting the two. That's probably also why Powell plays D-1 basketball and I write this blog. If you take away Powell's threes, we go 3-9 from downtown. Not great, but much better. We were balanced on offense, got to the line, made our FT's and rebounded well. However, it wasn't meant to be.
I'm willing to chalk this defeat up to a lucky run by CSUN and that it won't happen again. However, CSUN shows us that all it takes is one good game or one hot player to ruin your game plan.
Next up, the Gauchos play the UCI Anteaters on Thursday.
Check back all week because I've got some good material to add to the blog each day.
Saturday, January 5, 2008
1/5/08: CSUN at UCSB
UCSB Gauchos (12-2) v. Cal State Northridge Matadors (9-3)
January 5, 2008, 7:00 p.m. (PST)
Tonight's match-up, according to kenpom.com, is going to be UCSB's 4th most difficult game of the season (by RPI).
CSUN is no slouch, so this game scares me a little bit. Their season averages show some nice offensive balance, with 4 players averaging over 10.0 points per game. Further, their top 8 players are all Seniors or Juniors. You can get into the heads of the young bucks, but with a team full of veteran experience, like CSUN, UCSB will have their hands full tonight.
Here are the scouting reports for each team (from kenpom.com);
UCSB: http://www.kenpom.com/sr.php?team=UC%20Santa%20Barbara
CSUN: http://www.kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Cal%20St.%20Northridge
CSUN plays at a faster tempo than the Gauchos, averaging about 77.5 possessions per 40 minute game. UCSB, on the other hand, is averaging about 70.9.
Most scary of all is the fact that CSUN is playing at the exact same efficiency as UCSB, 101.2 points per 100 possessions. CSUN rebounds well and shoots a better 2 point % per game than the Gauchos. While writing this right now, I'm convinced that CSUN is going to be a big test for the Gauchos tonight (no shit Sherlock).
UCSB possesses advantages against CSUN with the fact that they are better defensively than CSUN (CSUN is still pretty good though), shoot a better FT% and looks like a slightly better defensive team.
The problem lies with the fact that CSUN has such balance. In fact, I can't think of another Gaucho opponent (although I'm not thinking very hard), except UNC, that had better offensive balance from its players.
UCSB is going to have to stop at least two of CSUN's players tonight, especially J. Heard. Heard has taken a large amount of CSUN's possessions this season. If UCSB can keep him off balance, I believe it should throw off the rest of the game plan. Other than the usuals, limit turnovers, get some steals and get to the line, I think UCSB stands a good chance of winning this game.
I'm not in the prediction business, but I believe UCSB can win this game by at least 5 or 6 points. I think there are some good things in store for UCSB this season, but this will give us a good measure of where the Gauchos actually stand.
January 5, 2008, 7:00 p.m. (PST)
Tonight's match-up, according to kenpom.com, is going to be UCSB's 4th most difficult game of the season (by RPI).
CSUN is no slouch, so this game scares me a little bit. Their season averages show some nice offensive balance, with 4 players averaging over 10.0 points per game. Further, their top 8 players are all Seniors or Juniors. You can get into the heads of the young bucks, but with a team full of veteran experience, like CSUN, UCSB will have their hands full tonight.
Here are the scouting reports for each team (from kenpom.com);
UCSB: http://www.kenpom.com/sr.php?team=UC%20Santa%20Barbara
CSUN: http://www.kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Cal%20St.%20Northridge
CSUN plays at a faster tempo than the Gauchos, averaging about 77.5 possessions per 40 minute game. UCSB, on the other hand, is averaging about 70.9.
Most scary of all is the fact that CSUN is playing at the exact same efficiency as UCSB, 101.2 points per 100 possessions. CSUN rebounds well and shoots a better 2 point % per game than the Gauchos. While writing this right now, I'm convinced that CSUN is going to be a big test for the Gauchos tonight (no shit Sherlock).
UCSB possesses advantages against CSUN with the fact that they are better defensively than CSUN (CSUN is still pretty good though), shoot a better FT% and looks like a slightly better defensive team.
The problem lies with the fact that CSUN has such balance. In fact, I can't think of another Gaucho opponent (although I'm not thinking very hard), except UNC, that had better offensive balance from its players.
UCSB is going to have to stop at least two of CSUN's players tonight, especially J. Heard. Heard has taken a large amount of CSUN's possessions this season. If UCSB can keep him off balance, I believe it should throw off the rest of the game plan. Other than the usuals, limit turnovers, get some steals and get to the line, I think UCSB stands a good chance of winning this game.
I'm not in the prediction business, but I believe UCSB can win this game by at least 5 or 6 points. I think there are some good things in store for UCSB this season, but this will give us a good measure of where the Gauchos actually stand.
Friday, January 4, 2008
Some Love From ESPNU College Basketball Insider
That's right Gaucho Nation, UCSB got some love today from the ESPNU College Basketball Insider. While I enjoy the podcast, I'm not a huge fan of the host Andy Glockner. For someone who claims to have all this mid-major love, he sure does a lot of sucking up to the Big 6 and the A-10. Regardless, he and Doug Gottlieb gave the Gauchos some love today.
Today, while discussing UCLA senior Michael Rolle, Doug Gottlieb gave a shout out to the Big West, and to UCSB's victory over LBSU last night.
The clip starts at approximately 24:29 of the podcast. Follow the link below and let yourself hear the glorious 30 seconds or so of Gaucho Love.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espnradio/podcast/archive?id=2689788
Today, while discussing UCLA senior Michael Rolle, Doug Gottlieb gave a shout out to the Big West, and to UCSB's victory over LBSU last night.
The clip starts at approximately 24:29 of the podcast. Follow the link below and let yourself hear the glorious 30 seconds or so of Gaucho Love.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espnradio/podcast/archive?id=2689788
My Old Friend Bob Williams
After watching the CSTV internet "Gamecast" of the UCSB game last night, I got to thinking about Bob Williams and the job he's doing this season, which has been excellent thus far. On one hand, I really believe the Gauchos can solidly dominate the Big West (losing one or two games only) and maybe get a vote or two in the "Others Receiving Votes (ORV)" category of the Top 25. On the other hand, I feel like I've been down this road before.
Let me offer an analogy of why I have such conflicted feelings to this season. Everyone has, at one point or another, had a friend (or girlfriend/boyfriend) who wasn't really a very good friend. At first, you two get along great and everything is going well. Then, there comes a point when you realize that your friend is really just a shithead (or other adjective) and isn't really that interested in being your friend. You cut off your relationship with them to let them know how you feel. Then, at some point in the near future, they contact you again, swear they've changed, and you let them back into your life. Everything goes well, until the point you realize that your friend isn't all that concerned about you, and just worries about himself. So, you cut them out again, and the cycle begins.
This reminds me of the time I invited an old friend to a holiday party with me. He used to drink way too much and make an ass out of himself. This time, I told him not to make a scene and watch what he drinks. Well, let's just say after I found him looking like this, our friendship ceased to exist.
Ok, now on to the more serious stuff. UCSB put on a strong performance last night, beating LBSU 79-64. What impressed me was that UCSB had 4 guys score above 13 points (Devine, Elliot, Harris and Powell). If the team can continue with that kind of distribution, it's going to be hard for our opponents to shut us down. Instead, it turns into a pick your poison type strategy and hope the guys you don't focus on, have an off-night. Also impressive was the fact that none of those 4 guys took a disparate amount of shots.
UCSB got to the foul line and went 10-11. That is the kind of performance that proves they are one of the better FT shooting teams in the country. Currently, they are 7th in the country in FT%.
Additionally, the Gauchos minimized turnovers (8) and created 22 on the other side. That is an awesome discrepancy from a defensive standpoint.
This game pushed UCSB to 12-2. While their non-conference schedule is very weak, their only two losses came to the #1 team in the country (UNC) and the #24 (AP) ranked team in the country, Stanford. If UCSB can go undefeated in Big West (not sure if it can happen) and win their BracketBuster match-up, I think the Gauchos could be looking at a solid 10-11 seed (a la Winthrop 2007).
As a result of this great performance, I'm really looking forward to the next couple games UCSB has. I want to see if this performance was a fluke or if they really are the emperors of the Big West.
Next victim: Cal State Northridge
Let me offer an analogy of why I have such conflicted feelings to this season. Everyone has, at one point or another, had a friend (or girlfriend/boyfriend) who wasn't really a very good friend. At first, you two get along great and everything is going well. Then, there comes a point when you realize that your friend is really just a shithead (or other adjective) and isn't really that interested in being your friend. You cut off your relationship with them to let them know how you feel. Then, at some point in the near future, they contact you again, swear they've changed, and you let them back into your life. Everything goes well, until the point you realize that your friend isn't all that concerned about you, and just worries about himself. So, you cut them out again, and the cycle begins.
This reminds me of the time I invited an old friend to a holiday party with me. He used to drink way too much and make an ass out of himself. This time, I told him not to make a scene and watch what he drinks. Well, let's just say after I found him looking like this, our friendship ceased to exist.
Ok, now on to the more serious stuff. UCSB put on a strong performance last night, beating LBSU 79-64. What impressed me was that UCSB had 4 guys score above 13 points (Devine, Elliot, Harris and Powell). If the team can continue with that kind of distribution, it's going to be hard for our opponents to shut us down. Instead, it turns into a pick your poison type strategy and hope the guys you don't focus on, have an off-night. Also impressive was the fact that none of those 4 guys took a disparate amount of shots.
UCSB got to the foul line and went 10-11. That is the kind of performance that proves they are one of the better FT shooting teams in the country. Currently, they are 7th in the country in FT%.
Additionally, the Gauchos minimized turnovers (8) and created 22 on the other side. That is an awesome discrepancy from a defensive standpoint.
This game pushed UCSB to 12-2. While their non-conference schedule is very weak, their only two losses came to the #1 team in the country (UNC) and the #24 (AP) ranked team in the country, Stanford. If UCSB can go undefeated in Big West (not sure if it can happen) and win their BracketBuster match-up, I think the Gauchos could be looking at a solid 10-11 seed (a la Winthrop 2007).
As a result of this great performance, I'm really looking forward to the next couple games UCSB has. I want to see if this performance was a fluke or if they really are the emperors of the Big West.
Next victim: Cal State Northridge
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