I've been meaning to address this for a while since it's been awhile since Gary Cunningham stepped down. Now that I've got a free moment, I wanted to address something that provides the perfect microcosm for why things at UCSB can never be simple.
Take a look at the Search Advisory Committee in the search for UCSB's new Athletic Director. For those of you too lazy to click the link, there are 22 members in the committee by my count. Here is a list of the committee members, along with their relationship to UCSB:
Janis Ingham, NCAA Faculty Athletics Representative, Co-Chair
George Thurlow, Executive Director, UCSB Alumni Association, Co-Chair
Marty Davis, Head Coach, Men’s Tennis
Elizabeth Downing, University Physician; Director, Student Health Services
Rune Eliasen, Community Member
Mark French, Head Coach, Women’s Basketball
Jay Glazer, Community Member
Tsuyochi Hasegawa, Professor of History; Member, Intercollegiate Athletics Policy Board
Amy Jacobs, Staff Representative; Member, Intercollegiate Athletics Policy Board
Bethany Nickless, Student-Athlete Representative; Co-Chair, Student-Athlete Advisory Board
Fyl Pincus, Professor of Materials and Physics
Lynn Reitnouer, UCSB Foundation Trustee; Former Men’s Basketball Team Member
Cedric Robinson, Professor of Black Studies
James Romeo, Lecturer, Exercise and Sports Studies
Denise Segura, Professor of Sociology
Associated Students Representative, TBA
Graduate Students Association Representative, TBA
Ex-Officio Representatives
Ricardo Alcaino, Director of the Office of Equal Opportunity
Bobby Castagna, Associate Athletic Director
Todd Lee, Assistant Chancellor for Budget and Planning; Chair, NCAA Self-Study Group
Diane O’Brien, Associate Athletic Director; Senior Women’s Administrator
Paula Rudolph, Sexual Harassment Officer; Title IX Coordinator
Talk about too many cooks in the kitchen. Or too many chiefs and not enough indians. You get the point, but Dr. Yang did not. I have no idea what he was thinking, but I wonder if he really believes that 22 people in a room can come to a consensus on the one man or woman who can lead UCSB's Athletic Department. You can't please everyone Henry. Unfortunately, in your quest to appease everyone, you've left one big clusterf***.
Not that Yang would have asked me, but I could have pared this list down extensively for him.
1. Why do we need two community members on this list? I know we're trying to reach out to the community and all, but the only team (besides the "smaller" sports) that seem to have a problem attracting people is the Men's Basketball Team. I think one member, if any, would suffice.
2. Um, the University physician? I didn't even know we had such a position. Why does the physician need to assist in the choosing of the AD? Not sure about this one.
3. There are five professors on the committee. Do we really need five (really? five?) professors? My guess is that two professors would have done the trick. Jim Romeo will be good and Professor Hasegawa due to Hasegawa's position on the Intercollegiate Athletics Policy Board.
4. Really though, the ex-officio members would have done just fine, along with one student representative and one current coach.
This is ridiculous. I cannot imagine how on earth these people will come to some sort of general consensus as to their choice.
The ultimate problem with this is that, just like the search committee, we're going to get a new AD who amounts to nothing more than the status quo (i.e. Gary Williams). The new AD will have to please 22 people, so they're not going to pick the best candidate (i.e. the one most likely to fire/not renew the under-achieving Bob Williams) who will make tough decisions (is that a tough decision?), but they're going to pick the AD who keeps things the same.
The bottom line is that it's a shame because UCSB deserves someone who can give our school national recognition through our sports programs. Having a visible sports program increases knowledge about UCSB and, in my opinion, opens more doors in the career search of a UCSB graduate. If we go with another plain vanilla AD, we can expect some of the same old shit. The coaches with the drive and fire (Vom Steeg) will continue to succeed, while the coaches who are content to wallow in mediocrity and collect a paycheck perform on a .500 basis year-in, year-out.
Like I said, that would be a shame.
Thursday, April 3, 2008
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Don't Worry
For those of you who actually believed that Bob Williams got hired by Cal, don't worry, he's not going anywhere. It was just a little April Fools fun by The Gaucho Manifesto.
Didn't mean to give anyone a heart attack that our beloved and sage-like coach was leaving.
Didn't mean to give anyone a heart attack that our beloved and sage-like coach was leaving.
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
Bob Williams Hired by Cal!
There is an rumor going around that the University of California, at Berkeley has settled on UCSB coach Bob Williams as their new head coach. I will try to confirm, however, I've heard that Cal was impressed by his game management, superb conference record and his conference tournament success. Oh yeah, and he's won a Division II National Championship. The Cal Bears will now be able to experience a level of success that the UCSB Gauchos have been able to enjoy for the last 10 years.
Saturday, March 29, 2008
Billy Packer Sucks
Since UCSB's season is over, I haven't had much to write about. Yesterday that changed. While listening to the Stanford-Texas game, I was forced to listen to Billy Packer. After listening to Packer I'm pretty sure that I would rather hit myself with a hammer than listen to Packer.
I've always felt this way, but yesterday's performance by Mr. Packer threw lighter fluid and a match onto the pile of logs accumulating in my mind.
In Packer's opinion, everything (and I mean everything) DJ Augustin did drew incredible amounts of praise from Packer. Everything from jump shots to a pass to a wide open teammate were all "great plays." It was so ridiculous. Almost as if he wants to make out with Augustin. DJ is a phenomenal player, no doubt. However, when you're complimenting a point guard for passing to the open man, that's a bit silly. Isn't that what a point guard is supposed to do?
On the other hand, Stanford drew nothing but criticism from Packer. They did nothing right in his eyes. In fact, Packer's distaste for all things Stanford gave way to the funniest non-comment of the game. Early in the second half, Taj Finger drove to the basket and drew a foul call. It was a nice drive by Finger and a good job of getting to the line. After Jim Nantz was done with the play-by-play there was awkward silence for the next minute or so while Finger shot the free throw. Either Packer didn't want to give credit for getting to the line or he just couldn't think of any negative spin.
With that being said, I really want Packer to retire or get fired. Unfortunately, just like Bob Williams, Billy Packer will be back next year and the year after that.
I've always felt this way, but yesterday's performance by Mr. Packer threw lighter fluid and a match onto the pile of logs accumulating in my mind.
In Packer's opinion, everything (and I mean everything) DJ Augustin did drew incredible amounts of praise from Packer. Everything from jump shots to a pass to a wide open teammate were all "great plays." It was so ridiculous. Almost as if he wants to make out with Augustin. DJ is a phenomenal player, no doubt. However, when you're complimenting a point guard for passing to the open man, that's a bit silly. Isn't that what a point guard is supposed to do?
On the other hand, Stanford drew nothing but criticism from Packer. They did nothing right in his eyes. In fact, Packer's distaste for all things Stanford gave way to the funniest non-comment of the game. Early in the second half, Taj Finger drove to the basket and drew a foul call. It was a nice drive by Finger and a good job of getting to the line. After Jim Nantz was done with the play-by-play there was awkward silence for the next minute or so while Finger shot the free throw. Either Packer didn't want to give credit for getting to the line or he just couldn't think of any negative spin.
With that being said, I really want Packer to retire or get fired. Unfortunately, just like Bob Williams, Billy Packer will be back next year and the year after that.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Looking Back at the Schedule
It's not secret that the Gauchos played an extremely strong weak out-of-conference schedule. Combine that with the mighty mighty Big West strength and you have one hell of a whopper schedule. Add to that a few losses to teams that the Gauchos have all no business losing to and you've got no chance at an at-large bid.
With that being said, I got to thinking in my post-March Madness hangover (can't wait for Thursday) about the Gauchos out-of-conference schedule. Yes, it was soft. However, the Gauchos only two out-of-conference losses (except Utah State and Mississippi) during the true OOC "season" came at the hands of Stanford (a Brook Lopez-less Stanford) and UNC.
Considering that these are two of the Sweet 16 contestants, they are looking like much better losses at this point in the season. To digress for a moment - one thing the readers don't know about me is that I grew up near the Stanford campus, went to their games and watched them as a kid so I consider myself a Stanford fan, as well. I was at the Anaheim venue on both Thursday and Saturday and Stanford looks very dominant.
In fact, in my tournament bracket, I have Stanford beating Texas and making it to the Final Four. Unfortunately, I have UNC losing to Tennessee in the Elite 8. If my bracket holds up, as myextremely accurate picks are known to, UCSB will have lost to two of the final 8 teams left in the country.
By the way, if Tyler Hansbrough stays at UNC for his senior year, is he not going to eat any UCSB post player alive? Hope Bob Williams brings theexact same complete opposite philosophy/strategy that caused him to lose to Irvine 3 times in a season. It's just not the same as Stanford losing to UCLA (one by a very bad call) three times in a season.
With that, I'm out.
Check back for updates. I'm planning on reviewing the season, position by position after the tournament is over.
With that being said, I got to thinking in my post-March Madness hangover (can't wait for Thursday) about the Gauchos out-of-conference schedule. Yes, it was soft. However, the Gauchos only two out-of-conference losses (except Utah State and Mississippi) during the true OOC "season" came at the hands of Stanford (a Brook Lopez-less Stanford) and UNC.
Considering that these are two of the Sweet 16 contestants, they are looking like much better losses at this point in the season. To digress for a moment - one thing the readers don't know about me is that I grew up near the Stanford campus, went to their games and watched them as a kid so I consider myself a Stanford fan, as well. I was at the Anaheim venue on both Thursday and Saturday and Stanford looks very dominant.
In fact, in my tournament bracket, I have Stanford beating Texas and making it to the Final Four. Unfortunately, I have UNC losing to Tennessee in the Elite 8. If my bracket holds up, as my
By the way, if Tyler Hansbrough stays at UNC for his senior year, is he not going to eat any UCSB post player alive? Hope Bob Williams brings the
With that, I'm out.
Check back for updates. I'm planning on reviewing the season, position by position after the tournament is over.
Monday, March 24, 2008
Academics and Basketball Success
One of the things that I meant to study, although not as comprehensive as this, was the effect that having an NCAA Tournament Men's Basketball team would effect the admissions and applicants at UCSB.
When I was younger, I remember hearing about the phenomenon that Michael Vick had created for the Virginia Tech football team. Because of Vick, I remember hearing that Virginia Tech had seen a large increase in the number of applicants. Additionally, I remember the Dean being quoted in the article about how the VT student body used to wear the logos of different schools around campus, but that since Vick, they only wear VT gear.
I've always felt that UCSB should put some more effort into having a men's basketball team that dominates the Big West, much like the women's team already does. One of the benefits is that the school should get increased exposure from sporting events on television. This should lead to a higher number of applicants which leads to more money.
The study seems to prove what I've long suspected:
Of course, the people with their heads up their asses naysayers love to point out that UCSB isn't in the Big East and that Bob is just a great coach. Logic doesn't work with these folks. However, I would point to Gonzaga and other mid-major schools (Xavier, etc...) with good basketball programs and I would bet that their schools experienced a similar effect. As to the Bob argument, I ask this: if you worked for the same company 10 years in a row and your department had the same mediocre numbers year after year and you failed to gain any ground on your competitor would your company keep you around? If they did, your company probably won't be around much longer, but you should keep that job because they're rewarding mediocrity. Why should basketball coaching be the same? I expect a return on my tax dollars and Bob doesn't deliver. Enough of the rant for today, enjoy the study.
When I was younger, I remember hearing about the phenomenon that Michael Vick had created for the Virginia Tech football team. Because of Vick, I remember hearing that Virginia Tech had seen a large increase in the number of applicants. Additionally, I remember the Dean being quoted in the article about how the VT student body used to wear the logos of different schools around campus, but that since Vick, they only wear VT gear.
I've always felt that UCSB should put some more effort into having a men's basketball team that dominates the Big West, much like the women's team already does. One of the benefits is that the school should get increased exposure from sporting events on television. This should lead to a higher number of applicants which leads to more money.
The study seems to prove what I've long suspected:
- All 64 schools in the NCAA basketball tournament had a 1 percent increase in applicants each year.
- Sweet Sixteen schools had a 3 percent application increase.
Of course, the
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
NIT 1st Round Game: UCSB at Ole' Miss
UCSB Gauchos (22-8, 12-4) at University of Mississippi Runnin' Rebels (21-10, 7-9)
Oxford, MS 5:00 pm (PST)
ESPNU
Tonight, the Gauchos take on the Ole' Miss Runnin' Rebels (land of Eli and Archie) in their first round match-up of the NIT (the Gauchos "reward" for choking in Anaheim). It's going to be a tough match-up for the boys of UCSB. The Rebels average about 6-8 across their front line and outweigh them by a lot.
Ole' Miss plays at a pace of about 70 possessions per game, compared to UCSB's 66. While this seems insignificant at face value, remember that the Gauchos play the pace their opponent tells them to play (hopefully that's the only thing they allow their opponent to do). In this case, the Rebels are extremely effective at keeping the pace within a range they want. Almost all of their games have been played in the high 60s to mid 70s. Look for the Gauchos to play faster than they're used to.
From an efficiency standpoint, the Rebels kill UCSB with an adjusted rating of 114.3. UCSB's adjusted rating (Can't believe I didn't notice this before) is a paltry 99.7. Anything below 100 sucks. The good news is that of all the times that Mississippi has been held under an efficiency rating of 100, they've lost all but one of those games. The bad news is that they've been held under 100 only 6 times (out of 31 games).
Let's get onto what could be the last analysis of the season.
Effective Field Goal %
UCSB: 52.2%
Miss: 51.5%
UCSB needs to hit their shots, especially their 3 point shots in this game because the Rebels have some beef on a front line that shoots over 50% from inside the arc. That number only figures to increase when the Rebels face the Gauchos because of their weak inside presence.
Free Throw Rate
UCSB: 26.0
Miss: 19.2
This is about UCSB's only true advantage in this game and it hinges on a big IF. IF the Gauchos don't choke at the line like they did in Anaheim, this could keep them in the game. In each televised game they've played, the Gauchos have had a less than average free throw shooting performance. As homerish as I am, that doesn't bode well for the Gauchos.
Offensive Rebounding %
UCSB: 28.4%
Miss: 39.3%
Oh lordy. This is going to be a problem. To summarize one USCB message board poster after this most recent loss to UCI, these guys better come out "breathing fire" if they stand a chance. Seriously, our rebounding percentage puts at 300th of 314 DI teams. That's bad. UCSB needs to man up, box up and prevent Mississippi from getting any offensive rebounds. They're big and they're beefy, but if you go in their pissed off, you can outrebound even the biggest guy on the block.
Turnover Percentage
UCSB: 21.1%
Miss: 18.0%
Mississippi does a great job of protecting the ball. This doesn't mean that UCSB can't get them to turn it over, all it means is that it's going to be harder. Play some pressure defense in the form of a press and get a few turnovers.
UCSB's mission is difficult, but it can be done. Let's go Gauchos. I'll be watching. Do us proud.
Oxford, MS 5:00 pm (PST)
ESPNU
Tonight, the Gauchos take on the Ole' Miss Runnin' Rebels (land of Eli and Archie) in their first round match-up of the NIT (the Gauchos "reward" for choking in Anaheim). It's going to be a tough match-up for the boys of UCSB. The Rebels average about 6-8 across their front line and outweigh them by a lot.
Ole' Miss plays at a pace of about 70 possessions per game, compared to UCSB's 66. While this seems insignificant at face value, remember that the Gauchos play the pace their opponent tells them to play (hopefully that's the only thing they allow their opponent to do). In this case, the Rebels are extremely effective at keeping the pace within a range they want. Almost all of their games have been played in the high 60s to mid 70s. Look for the Gauchos to play faster than they're used to.
From an efficiency standpoint, the Rebels kill UCSB with an adjusted rating of 114.3. UCSB's adjusted rating (Can't believe I didn't notice this before) is a paltry 99.7. Anything below 100 sucks. The good news is that of all the times that Mississippi has been held under an efficiency rating of 100, they've lost all but one of those games. The bad news is that they've been held under 100 only 6 times (out of 31 games).
Let's get onto what could be the last analysis of the season.
Effective Field Goal %
UCSB: 52.2%
Miss: 51.5%
UCSB needs to hit their shots, especially their 3 point shots in this game because the Rebels have some beef on a front line that shoots over 50% from inside the arc. That number only figures to increase when the Rebels face the Gauchos because of their weak inside presence.
Free Throw Rate
UCSB: 26.0
Miss: 19.2
This is about UCSB's only true advantage in this game and it hinges on a big IF. IF the Gauchos don't choke at the line like they did in Anaheim, this could keep them in the game. In each televised game they've played, the Gauchos have had a less than average free throw shooting performance. As homerish as I am, that doesn't bode well for the Gauchos.
Offensive Rebounding %
UCSB: 28.4%
Miss: 39.3%
Oh lordy. This is going to be a problem. To summarize one USCB message board poster after this most recent loss to UCI, these guys better come out "breathing fire" if they stand a chance. Seriously, our rebounding percentage puts at 300th of 314 DI teams. That's bad. UCSB needs to man up, box up and prevent Mississippi from getting any offensive rebounds. They're big and they're beefy, but if you go in their pissed off, you can outrebound even the biggest guy on the block.
Turnover Percentage
UCSB: 21.1%
Miss: 18.0%
Mississippi does a great job of protecting the ball. This doesn't mean that UCSB can't get them to turn it over, all it means is that it's going to be harder. Play some pressure defense in the form of a press and get a few turnovers.
UCSB's mission is difficult, but it can be done. Let's go Gauchos. I'll be watching. Do us proud.
Sunday, March 16, 2008
Big West Semifinal Recap: UCSB vs. UCI
NIT, here we come! Hard to get excited for that, I know. After taking in a day to soak in the fact that the Gauchos lost (for the third time) to UCI, I finally brought myself to write a little game analysis.
While I've had (and still do) problems with Bob Williams, the blame for the loss falls solely on the players, in my opinion. Not only did the team shoot 16-29 from the free throw line, they also managed to miss at least 6 layups. When you lost by 5 points, and you leave that many points on the table, it's the players fault. The players played tight and looked like they were indifferent to whether they won the game.
Sure, Bob should have laid into them with some intensity and fire. What disappointed me most from a coaching standpoint was Bob's willingness to stick with the same strategy that led UCSB to two losses against UCI. The Gauchos pushed the ball up the court when they got a defensive rebound, but then they allowed UCI to set up their defense while UCSB ran a half court set. That's exactly what UCI wanted to do and you played right into their hands Bob. If you're going into a fight with a guy who wants to stand up and box with you, but your strength is taking the fight to the ground and winning by submission, you don't stand up and box with the guy, you get his ass on the ground and you pound him until he submits.
Unfortunately, the Gauchos, who should have been running and full court pressing the entire time (their strengths) submitted to the will of UCI and did whatever they wanted.
UCSB had one of their best defensive performances of the year against Irvine, holding them to a 84.5 efficiency rating. However, that doesn't do you any good when you register a 76.8 on the efficiency scale (for the record, that is the second worst performance of the season). The Gauchos upped the pace slightly this game, running the game at a 65, but that was too close to UCI's comfort range.
On another note, everytime I watch Brett Lauer I get a good laugh. Not only does he look like one of the shortest players on the court (maybe 5'10" with shoes on), but his player page says that he is 6'1". I don't know why, but I find his dramatic height exaggeration hilarious.
Effective Field Goal Percentage
UCSB: 36.3%
UCI: 50%
The Gauchos shot horribly from the floor. 15-47 overall and 4-17 from the three. Alex Harris, Ivan Elliot and James Powell stunk up the joint going 6-27. That's horrible. Combine that with the missed layups and you've got a problem.
With 5 minutes left in the first half, the Gauchos had only scored 9 points and missed 4 layups. Basically, that sums up the game.
Offensive Rebounding Percentage
UCSB: 19.5%
UCI: 27.4%
When you look at our offensive rebounds on the face of it, we did a decent job. However, when you look at how many defensive rebounds UCI got (31), it's ridiculous that we couldn't get any more rebounds.
The Gauchos managed 19 defensive rebounds. Weak.
Free Throw Rate
UCSB: 61.7
UCI: 52.5
Throw this stat out the window. Prior to this game, UCSB was one of the top 10 free throw shooting teams in the country at about 76%. During the game, UCSB went 16-29 from the line for a paltry 55.2%. If you give the Gauchos a 75% free throw performance in this game, they make 5 more free throws. Combine that with the missed lay-ups and the opportunities were there.
Justin Joyner was the primary offender in this category.
Turnover Percentage
UCSB: 16.9%
UCI: 35.3%
The Gauchos did a great job of forcing UCI into turnovers. However, they didn't convert many of the 23 turnovers into points. That hurts.
That's it for this analysis. Looks like we'll have to wait and see where we're going in the NCAA, I mean, NIT.
While I've had (and still do) problems with Bob Williams, the blame for the loss falls solely on the players, in my opinion. Not only did the team shoot 16-29 from the free throw line, they also managed to miss at least 6 layups. When you lost by 5 points, and you leave that many points on the table, it's the players fault. The players played tight and looked like they were indifferent to whether they won the game.
Sure, Bob should have laid into them with some intensity and fire. What disappointed me most from a coaching standpoint was Bob's willingness to stick with the same strategy that led UCSB to two losses against UCI. The Gauchos pushed the ball up the court when they got a defensive rebound, but then they allowed UCI to set up their defense while UCSB ran a half court set. That's exactly what UCI wanted to do and you played right into their hands Bob. If you're going into a fight with a guy who wants to stand up and box with you, but your strength is taking the fight to the ground and winning by submission, you don't stand up and box with the guy, you get his ass on the ground and you pound him until he submits.
Unfortunately, the Gauchos, who should have been running and full court pressing the entire time (their strengths) submitted to the will of UCI and did whatever they wanted.
UCSB had one of their best defensive performances of the year against Irvine, holding them to a 84.5 efficiency rating. However, that doesn't do you any good when you register a 76.8 on the efficiency scale (for the record, that is the second worst performance of the season). The Gauchos upped the pace slightly this game, running the game at a 65, but that was too close to UCI's comfort range.
On another note, everytime I watch Brett Lauer I get a good laugh. Not only does he look like one of the shortest players on the court (maybe 5'10" with shoes on), but his player page says that he is 6'1". I don't know why, but I find his dramatic height exaggeration hilarious.
Effective Field Goal Percentage
UCSB: 36.3%
UCI: 50%
The Gauchos shot horribly from the floor. 15-47 overall and 4-17 from the three. Alex Harris, Ivan Elliot and James Powell stunk up the joint going 6-27. That's horrible. Combine that with the missed layups and you've got a problem.
With 5 minutes left in the first half, the Gauchos had only scored 9 points and missed 4 layups. Basically, that sums up the game.
Offensive Rebounding Percentage
UCSB: 19.5%
UCI: 27.4%
When you look at our offensive rebounds on the face of it, we did a decent job. However, when you look at how many defensive rebounds UCI got (31), it's ridiculous that we couldn't get any more rebounds.
The Gauchos managed 19 defensive rebounds. Weak.
Free Throw Rate
UCSB: 61.7
UCI: 52.5
Throw this stat out the window. Prior to this game, UCSB was one of the top 10 free throw shooting teams in the country at about 76%. During the game, UCSB went 16-29 from the line for a paltry 55.2%. If you give the Gauchos a 75% free throw performance in this game, they make 5 more free throws. Combine that with the missed lay-ups and the opportunities were there.
Justin Joyner was the primary offender in this category.
Turnover Percentage
UCSB: 16.9%
UCI: 35.3%
The Gauchos did a great job of forcing UCI into turnovers. However, they didn't convert many of the 23 turnovers into points. That hurts.
That's it for this analysis. Looks like we'll have to wait and see where we're going in the NCAA, I mean, NIT.
Friday, March 14, 2008
Big West Semifinal Preview: UCSB vs. UCI
UCSB Gauchos vs. UCI Anteaters
March 14, 2008 5:30 p.m. (PST)
Whether you fear the Anteaters or not, today is the day of reckoning for the Gauchos. They face the only dragon (or anteater) they've yet to slay this season. UCI beat the Gauchos on January 10, 66-63. The Anteaters beat the Gauchos again, on February 9, 65-59.
This is the ultimate test for the Gauchos. If they want to get into the NCAA Tournament, their mission is simple: win two games and you're in. Therefore, we see how bad the Gauchos want it tonight. Second, we can see if Bob Williams has learned anything from this season's two losses to UCI. Specifically, Bob Williams has allowed his team to play right into the hands of UCI by playing the sloooooowest pace (the pace the Anteaters want).
TGM's recipe for sucess is simple. Bob, you need to run the Anteaters out of the gym. I don't care if you're not comfortable with that style. The Gauchos are better suited for that style than the Anteaters.
Why do we make said recommendation? Take a look at the Game Flo, courtesy of midmajority.com, from UCI's match-up with Pacific last night. If you looked at that chart, you'll notice that each half UCI started out very hot and increased their margin of victory. However, what you'll also notice is that the Anteaters flattened out substantially as each half wore on. When a team flattens out like that at the end of each half, I'd say that's a pretty clear indication they were getting tired.
Another reason for the recommendation? UCSB needs to show the Anteaters that the Gauchos will be controlling tonight's game. Mike Tyson once said, "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face." Never has something so complex been said so simply. We know what Irvine's plan is. They want to walk the ball up the court. Especially since they've played three games in three days. Forcing them to run is the equivalent of punching them in the face. Surely, UCI's coaches know that they dictated the tempo the last two games. It would be foolish to think that they don't believe they can't control the pace this time around. Therefore, the Gauchos need to induce maximum confusion by forcing the tempo. Press, push the ball on offense, etc...
An additional benefit of not letting them walk up the court is that the Anteaters are going to be tired, don't let them regain their energy. Please watch the youtube clip (specifically, the energy bar) to understand what I mean.
Clearly, Alan Beast and Tony Rhodes want to continue punching their guy when his energy is at his lowest. He can't defend himself as well and you're more likely to knock his ass out. If you punch him once, let him recoup, it's like you never punched him at all.
The last benefit of the recommendation is completely psychological. Irvine has beaten the Gauchos twice this season. If you let them stay in the game early, Bob, UCI will get this little thing called confidence. They will believe that they can hang with your team, Bob. The more hope you give them, the less their lack of energy counts. Show them that they can't play with their big bro. Have no mercy.
Now, onto the stats.
Effective Field Goal %
UCSB: 52.7%
UCI: 51.9%
We've already chronicled to death the fact that Irvine wants to play slow. IF UCSB allows UCI to dictate the pace (God help them), they need to make their three point shots to extend the defense. This will open up the post.
Tonight, the post men will be key. Not only do they need to keep Fells in check. But Devine, Elliot and Nedim (no 3's Nedim) need to be a three man wrecking crew. Sprinkle a little Gibb in there and you can make that a 4 man crew.
The key is controlling the pace. Don't play slow. Make UCI play fast. Put the fear into them. They don't want to run, so we want them to run. Make it happen, Bob.
Free Throw Rate
UCSB: 25.7
UCI: 24.7
Bottom line to this: Don't send them to the free throw line. If you do, make sure you get there more than they do. UCI is a great free throw shooting team. They're going to make you pay if you send them to the line. Fouling them in the act = bad idea.
The first game, we did a good job, we sent them to the line 10 times, we went 11. The second game, not so good. They got to the line 22 times, we got to the line 11 times. That very well could have been the game right there, considering they made 8 more free throws than us. Of course, six of those free throws came at the end of the game when we started intentionally fouling.
Offensive Rebounding %
UCSB: 28.8%
UCI: 26.4%
We're not very good here. Just don't give them second chance shots. The last couple times we've match-up, the offensive rebounds have been pretty close. However, defensively, they've cleaned up the glass compared to us.
Turnover Rate
UCSB: 21.3%
UCI: 19.0%
UCSB has one of the highest defensive turnover percentages. To maximize this, push the ball up the court. UCI doesn't turn it over much because they walk the ball up the court. When they are doing this, it's fairly difficult to make a turnover. Force them into playing faster and you might force a couple extra turnovers.
That's it folks. Like all of you, I'm hoping for the Gauchos to pull it off tonight. If they can beat the Anteaters, then it's one more game and the Gauchos will have made the tournament, so we can start doing this:
March 14, 2008 5:30 p.m. (PST)
Whether you fear the Anteaters or not, today is the day of reckoning for the Gauchos. They face the only dragon (or anteater) they've yet to slay this season. UCI beat the Gauchos on January 10, 66-63. The Anteaters beat the Gauchos again, on February 9, 65-59.
This is the ultimate test for the Gauchos. If they want to get into the NCAA Tournament, their mission is simple: win two games and you're in. Therefore, we see how bad the Gauchos want it tonight. Second, we can see if Bob Williams has learned anything from this season's two losses to UCI. Specifically, Bob Williams has allowed his team to play right into the hands of UCI by playing the sloooooowest pace (the pace the Anteaters want).
TGM's recipe for sucess is simple. Bob, you need to run the Anteaters out of the gym. I don't care if you're not comfortable with that style. The Gauchos are better suited for that style than the Anteaters.
Why do we make said recommendation? Take a look at the Game Flo, courtesy of midmajority.com, from UCI's match-up with Pacific last night. If you looked at that chart, you'll notice that each half UCI started out very hot and increased their margin of victory. However, what you'll also notice is that the Anteaters flattened out substantially as each half wore on. When a team flattens out like that at the end of each half, I'd say that's a pretty clear indication they were getting tired.
Another reason for the recommendation? UCSB needs to show the Anteaters that the Gauchos will be controlling tonight's game. Mike Tyson once said, "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face." Never has something so complex been said so simply. We know what Irvine's plan is. They want to walk the ball up the court. Especially since they've played three games in three days. Forcing them to run is the equivalent of punching them in the face. Surely, UCI's coaches know that they dictated the tempo the last two games. It would be foolish to think that they don't believe they can't control the pace this time around. Therefore, the Gauchos need to induce maximum confusion by forcing the tempo. Press, push the ball on offense, etc...
An additional benefit of not letting them walk up the court is that the Anteaters are going to be tired, don't let them regain their energy. Please watch the youtube clip (specifically, the energy bar) to understand what I mean.
Clearly, Alan Beast and Tony Rhodes want to continue punching their guy when his energy is at his lowest. He can't defend himself as well and you're more likely to knock his ass out. If you punch him once, let him recoup, it's like you never punched him at all.
The last benefit of the recommendation is completely psychological. Irvine has beaten the Gauchos twice this season. If you let them stay in the game early, Bob, UCI will get this little thing called confidence. They will believe that they can hang with your team, Bob. The more hope you give them, the less their lack of energy counts. Show them that they can't play with their big bro. Have no mercy.
Now, onto the stats.
Effective Field Goal %
UCSB: 52.7%
UCI: 51.9%
We've already chronicled to death the fact that Irvine wants to play slow. IF UCSB allows UCI to dictate the pace (God help them), they need to make their three point shots to extend the defense. This will open up the post.
Tonight, the post men will be key. Not only do they need to keep Fells in check. But Devine, Elliot and Nedim (no 3's Nedim) need to be a three man wrecking crew. Sprinkle a little Gibb in there and you can make that a 4 man crew.
The key is controlling the pace. Don't play slow. Make UCI play fast. Put the fear into them. They don't want to run, so we want them to run. Make it happen, Bob.
Free Throw Rate
UCSB: 25.7
UCI: 24.7
Bottom line to this: Don't send them to the free throw line. If you do, make sure you get there more than they do. UCI is a great free throw shooting team. They're going to make you pay if you send them to the line. Fouling them in the act = bad idea.
The first game, we did a good job, we sent them to the line 10 times, we went 11. The second game, not so good. They got to the line 22 times, we got to the line 11 times. That very well could have been the game right there, considering they made 8 more free throws than us. Of course, six of those free throws came at the end of the game when we started intentionally fouling.
Offensive Rebounding %
UCSB: 28.8%
UCI: 26.4%
We're not very good here. Just don't give them second chance shots. The last couple times we've match-up, the offensive rebounds have been pretty close. However, defensively, they've cleaned up the glass compared to us.
Turnover Rate
UCSB: 21.3%
UCI: 19.0%
UCSB has one of the highest defensive turnover percentages. To maximize this, push the ball up the court. UCI doesn't turn it over much because they walk the ball up the court. When they are doing this, it's fairly difficult to make a turnover. Force them into playing faster and you might force a couple extra turnovers.
That's it folks. Like all of you, I'm hoping for the Gauchos to pull it off tonight. If they can beat the Anteaters, then it's one more game and the Gauchos will have made the tournament, so we can start doing this:
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Big West Semis Are Set: UCSB vs. UCI Tomorrow
Irvine has beaten Pacific 57-56. You know what that means - the Gauchos will face off with Irvine tomorrow at 5:30 p.m.
The Gauchos have some demons to excise in this game. Irvine has beat them twice this season. Third time is a charm. I like the Gauchos. They appear to be playing well. Tomorrow, we'll post an analysis on the game for your enjoyment.
Also, check the post below that looks at the factors that correlated most with Gaucho victories.
Season Stats
At the end of the regular season, I wanted to examine UCSB's season long performance and see what factors were most indicative of success in the Gaucho's games. As a regular reader of Sunday Morning Quarterback, a college football blog, I like the idea they do in the off-season of the Stats Relevance Watch which can be found here.
The purpose of the Stats Relevance watch is to see what stats most correlate with winning during the previous season. In the link above, SMQ looks at the Big 12. In each comparison, SMQ uses 13 team stats. SMQ records its ranking this way: If the winning team outgained its opponent in total yards, that category was marked as a "victory" for the winning team. Conversely, if the winning team is outgained by the losing team in total yards, it's marked as a "loss" for the winning team.
What I did was go through the Gauchos games and look separately at the games they won and the games they lost. As most of you know, TGM mainly utilizes the "new age" stats from places like kenpom.com, however, this time we looked at 17 plain vanilla team stats (no percentages or anything crazy, just from the boxscore). As you'll see below, I decided what stat was better in a category (less fouls is better than more fouls) and used that stat as the barometer. If UCSB was the "better" team in that category, I gave them a yes (which is the equivalent of a "win"). I eliminated ties, so not all categories are equal. Enjoy.
Category W-L %
More Assists 21-2 91.3%
Halftime Lead 19-2 90.5%
Higher Field Goal % 19-3 86.4%
More Field Goals Made 18-3 85.7%
Fewer Turnovers 15-4 78.9%
More Made 3 Pointers 14-6 70.0%
More Free Throws Made 14-8 63.6%
More Defensive Rebounds 14-8 63.6%
More Players with Playing Time 8-5 61.5%
More Steals 12-8 60.0%
Fewer Fouls 12-9 57.1%
More Total Rebounds 12-9 57.1%
More Free Throw Attempts 11-10 52.4%
More Field Goal Attempts 10-11 47.6%
More Blocked Shots 8-10 44.4%
More Offensive Rebounds 6-15 28.6%
More 3 Point Attempts 5-17 22.7%
The most interesting stats in this whole project were the bottom ones. For the whole season, I've been harping on the Gauchos to shoot more three pointers and get to the free throw line more often. Of course, the stats aren't lying. Those stats had very little to do with the Gauchos winning.
I don't know what to make of the stats at the top. However, it seems to suggest that when the team is passing the ball to their open teammates, they have more success. Also, halftime lead seems to be a big indicator of success for the Gauchos this year. Make what you want of these stats, they are here for your enjoyment. Spread the word if you like.
Below, you will find the stats and rankings from the 7 losses the Gauchos endured (not the best sample size, but that's a good thing, right?). Same rules as above. I didn't flip the stats around. If the Gauchos had fewer turnovers, it was marked as a yes (and consequently, a "victory"). The only difference is that we started these stats from the bottom up.
Category
Higher Field Goal % 1-6 14.3%
More Free Throws Made 1-6 14.3%
More Free Throw Attempts 1-6 14.3%
More Defensive Rebounds 1-6 14.3%
More Total Rebounds 1-6 14.3%
Fewer Fouls 1-5 16.7%
More Field Goals Made 1-4 20.0%
Halftime Lead 2-5 28.5%
More Assists 2-4 33.3%
More Players in the Game 2-4 33.3%
More Offensive Rebounds 3-3 50%
More Blocked Shots 3-3 50%
More Steals 3-3 50%
More 3 Pointers Made 4-3 57.1%
Fewer Turnovers 5-2 71.4%
More Field Goal Attempts 5-2 71.4%
More 3 Point Attempts 6-1 85.7%
Read into these stats what you want. I'm not quite sure what to make of them. However, it's interesting to see what stats were most indicative of a Gaucho win and which were most indicative of a Gaucho loss.
The purpose of the Stats Relevance watch is to see what stats most correlate with winning during the previous season. In the link above, SMQ looks at the Big 12. In each comparison, SMQ uses 13 team stats. SMQ records its ranking this way: If the winning team outgained its opponent in total yards, that category was marked as a "victory" for the winning team. Conversely, if the winning team is outgained by the losing team in total yards, it's marked as a "loss" for the winning team.
What I did was go through the Gauchos games and look separately at the games they won and the games they lost. As most of you know, TGM mainly utilizes the "new age" stats from places like kenpom.com, however, this time we looked at 17 plain vanilla team stats (no percentages or anything crazy, just from the boxscore). As you'll see below, I decided what stat was better in a category (less fouls is better than more fouls) and used that stat as the barometer. If UCSB was the "better" team in that category, I gave them a yes (which is the equivalent of a "win"). I eliminated ties, so not all categories are equal. Enjoy.
Category W-L %
More Assists 21-2 91.3%
Halftime Lead 19-2 90.5%
Higher Field Goal % 19-3 86.4%
More Field Goals Made 18-3 85.7%
Fewer Turnovers 15-4 78.9%
More Made 3 Pointers 14-6 70.0%
More Free Throws Made 14-8 63.6%
More Defensive Rebounds 14-8 63.6%
More Players with Playing Time 8-5 61.5%
More Steals 12-8 60.0%
Fewer Fouls 12-9 57.1%
More Total Rebounds 12-9 57.1%
More Free Throw Attempts 11-10 52.4%
More Field Goal Attempts 10-11 47.6%
More Blocked Shots 8-10 44.4%
More Offensive Rebounds 6-15 28.6%
More 3 Point Attempts 5-17 22.7%
The most interesting stats in this whole project were the bottom ones. For the whole season, I've been harping on the Gauchos to shoot more three pointers and get to the free throw line more often. Of course, the stats aren't lying. Those stats had very little to do with the Gauchos winning.
I don't know what to make of the stats at the top. However, it seems to suggest that when the team is passing the ball to their open teammates, they have more success. Also, halftime lead seems to be a big indicator of success for the Gauchos this year. Make what you want of these stats, they are here for your enjoyment. Spread the word if you like.
Below, you will find the stats and rankings from the 7 losses the Gauchos endured (not the best sample size, but that's a good thing, right?). Same rules as above. I didn't flip the stats around. If the Gauchos had fewer turnovers, it was marked as a yes (and consequently, a "victory"). The only difference is that we started these stats from the bottom up.
Category
Higher Field Goal % 1-6 14.3%
More Free Throws Made 1-6 14.3%
More Free Throw Attempts 1-6 14.3%
More Defensive Rebounds 1-6 14.3%
More Total Rebounds 1-6 14.3%
Fewer Fouls 1-5 16.7%
More Field Goals Made 1-4 20.0%
Halftime Lead 2-5 28.5%
More Assists 2-4 33.3%
More Players in the Game 2-4 33.3%
More Offensive Rebounds 3-3 50%
More Blocked Shots 3-3 50%
More Steals 3-3 50%
More 3 Pointers Made 4-3 57.1%
Fewer Turnovers 5-2 71.4%
More Field Goal Attempts 5-2 71.4%
More 3 Point Attempts 6-1 85.7%
Read into these stats what you want. I'm not quite sure what to make of them. However, it's interesting to see what stats were most indicative of a Gaucho win and which were most indicative of a Gaucho loss.
Big West Tournament: Day Two
We have our first final from tonight's two games in Anaheim. Fullerton beat Riverside 81-69. That means that the Gauchos will face the winner of the 8:30pm match-up between Pacific and Irvine. Tomorrow, CSUN and CSUF will match-up at 8:00pm.
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Big West Tournament; Day One
Day One of the Big West Tournament is in the books, folks. In Game 1, Irvine beat LBSU 77-63. In Game 2, Riverside took out Cal Poly.Tomorrow, CSUF will take on Irvine in the early game at 6:00 p.m. Pacific will take on Riverside at 8:30 p.m.
The Gauchos play Friday at 5:30 p.m. against the lowest remaining seed. The seedings of the teams playing tomorrow is below.
#3 CSUF
#4 Pacific
#5 Irvine
#7 Riverside
For those of you wondering, UCSB swept Fullerton and Riverside in conference play. The Gauchos got swept by Irvine and split the series with Pacific (UCSB won the away game). As a result, most people probably don't want to see the Anteaters on Friday and I don't blame them. However, one truism that I believe is true (uhh...is that a truism?) is that it is very difficult to beat a team three times in one season. In high school I saw it happen in two different Section Championships with the same teams in two consecutive years. The Section winner was swept in the regular season by the Section loser, so read into that what you may. Also, the Super Bowl Champion, NY Giants? They lost to the Dallas Cowboys twice in the regular season before beating them in Dallas during the playoffs. What does that mean? I don't know, but I suspect that the losing team has two tapes to see what they did wrong and then they can learn not to do anything bad they did in either game.
Honestly, TGM is rooting for a Riverside victory tomorrow, but that isn't likely. Why? Pacific has beaten them twice this year. I forgot to caveat my three times rule. It only applies to good teams, which I assume UCSB is. Riverside is not. I don't necessarily think it's a bad thing for the Gauchos to face the Anteaters. At this point, it's balls to the wall baby. You're the number one seed for a reason and you need to play like it.
In fact, the team I'm most scared about playing is Pacific. I don't know why, but those Tigers scare me.
So folks, pick your poison. There's only three teams we can possibly face, UCI, UCR and Pacific. Pick who you like us to beat and root for them in tomorrows quarterfinals.
Also, I'm working on an excel spreadsheet to release tomorrow or early Friday morning on the Gauchos season. So check back early and often starting tomorrow, I promise it's going to contain some good information that you might actually find useful, unlike the rest of this blog.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
The Gaucho Invitational?
Every once in a while I get a really good idea. This morning, it just so happened that an idea came to me regarding Gaucho basketball.
A while back, I posted a dream schedule. The goal of the schedule was to give us enough quality non-conference games to (1) help us recruit better; (2) give us a shot at an at-large tourney berth if we don't win the Big West Tourney; and (3) give us some exposure. The plan was that we could schedule just enough "big boys" and some of the better mid-majors to give us a shot at improving our lot in the basketball world.
Now, back to my idea. If you recall, one of my suggestions was to make sure the Gauchos attend at least tournament in the pre-season because a tournament counts as one game, no matter how many you play. The idea dawned on me: UCSB should put on a Gaucho Invitational each year. Hey, if Chaminade (Maui is nice, but so is SB) and University of Alaska can do it, why can't the Gauchos?
What better way to excite the student body than to invite some of the big boys to the Gaucho Invitational? If you invite 7 of the top teams in the country and have an 8 team tournament (and give each team 3 games), the student body would be stoked. Can you imagine if the likes of UCLA, Kansas, Duke, Gonzaga, Pittsburgh, Florida, Texas, Michigan State, etc... showed up at the Thunderdome? The place would be nuts!
I realize that UCSB probably wouldn't be able to get all those teams, every year. However, I bet a lot of the Midwest and East Coast teams would be dying for a trip out to Santa Barbara. It's cold out there and it's mild here in October (or whenever the tournament would be held).
A second advantage (I alluded to above) is that a tournament field with those teams would ensure student interest in the team. If you get the ball rolling early in the season, you can energize the fan base and keep them coming back. Besides, who wouldn't want to see a team play that has national championship potential? The Gauchos could rig the schedule, so they get the weakest team in the first round (just kidding). Regardless, I think this idea is terrific.
The third major advantage I can see to hosting a tournament is money. That's the name of the game, right? The tournament surely would generate television fees, advertising fees, ticket sales and concessions. Not to mention that the whole Santa Barbara economy would benefit. A lot of the more popular teams (see: UNC, Duke) have a loyal fan base who will travel to see their team play. This is money that the athletic department could use to finance other teams, better locker rooms, more recruiting, the list goes on and on.
I don't know much about hosting an event of this magnitude, except for a couple of parties my roommates and I threw back in the day, so I don't know about how hard and what negatives there are to an event like this. However, it sure seems like the positives outweigh any negatives.
If anyone familiar with the workings of such an event knows why or why not an event of this size could happen, I'd love to hear from you. Leave a comment.
A while back, I posted a dream schedule. The goal of the schedule was to give us enough quality non-conference games to (1) help us recruit better; (2) give us a shot at an at-large tourney berth if we don't win the Big West Tourney; and (3) give us some exposure. The plan was that we could schedule just enough "big boys" and some of the better mid-majors to give us a shot at improving our lot in the basketball world.
Now, back to my idea. If you recall, one of my suggestions was to make sure the Gauchos attend at least tournament in the pre-season because a tournament counts as one game, no matter how many you play. The idea dawned on me: UCSB should put on a Gaucho Invitational each year. Hey, if Chaminade (Maui is nice, but so is SB) and University of Alaska can do it, why can't the Gauchos?
What better way to excite the student body than to invite some of the big boys to the Gaucho Invitational? If you invite 7 of the top teams in the country and have an 8 team tournament (and give each team 3 games), the student body would be stoked. Can you imagine if the likes of UCLA, Kansas, Duke, Gonzaga, Pittsburgh, Florida, Texas, Michigan State, etc... showed up at the Thunderdome? The place would be nuts!
I realize that UCSB probably wouldn't be able to get all those teams, every year. However, I bet a lot of the Midwest and East Coast teams would be dying for a trip out to Santa Barbara. It's cold out there and it's mild here in October (or whenever the tournament would be held).
A second advantage (I alluded to above) is that a tournament field with those teams would ensure student interest in the team. If you get the ball rolling early in the season, you can energize the fan base and keep them coming back. Besides, who wouldn't want to see a team play that has national championship potential? The Gauchos could rig the schedule, so they get the weakest team in the first round (just kidding). Regardless, I think this idea is terrific.
The third major advantage I can see to hosting a tournament is money. That's the name of the game, right? The tournament surely would generate television fees, advertising fees, ticket sales and concessions. Not to mention that the whole Santa Barbara economy would benefit. A lot of the more popular teams (see: UNC, Duke) have a loyal fan base who will travel to see their team play. This is money that the athletic department could use to finance other teams, better locker rooms, more recruiting, the list goes on and on.
I don't know much about hosting an event of this magnitude, except for a couple of parties my roommates and I threw back in the day, so I don't know about how hard and what negatives there are to an event like this. However, it sure seems like the positives outweigh any negatives.
If anyone familiar with the workings of such an event knows why or why not an event of this size could happen, I'd love to hear from you. Leave a comment.
Monday, March 10, 2008
Big West Tournament
The seeds and schedule have been set. People are making their predictions and The Gaucho Manifesto is getting ready to make its picks for the Big West. In a blatant case of homerism, we declare UCSB the winner (if you don't like it, start your own blog). Be sure to participate in the super scientific and official Big West poll to your right.First, the regular season standings:
1. UCSB 12-4
1. CSUF 12-4
1. CSUN 12-4
4. Pacific 11-5
5. Irvine 9-7
6. Cal Poly 7-9
7. UCR 4-12
8. LBSU 3-13
9. Davis 2-14
The Big West Tournament Seedings:
#1: UCSB
#2: CSUN
#3: CSUF
#4: Pacific
#5: Irvine
#6: Cal Poly
#7: UCR
#8: LBSU
#9: Just kidding, Davis was so bad they wouldn't let them in the tournament (really, the #9 seed doesn't make it)
Schedule:
All games at the Anaheim Convention Center
Round 1 Wednesday, March 12
Irvine vs. LBSU, 6:00pm
Cal Poly vs. UCR, 30 minutes after conclusion
Round 2 Thursday, March 13
CSUF vs. Lowest remaining seed, 6:00pm
Pacific vs. Highest remaining seed, 30 minutes after conclusion
Round 3/Semis Friday, March 14
UCSB vs. Lowest Remaining Seed, 5:30 pm
CSUN vs. Highest Remaining Seed, 8:00 pm
Finals Saturday, March 15, 8:00pm ESPN2
What others are saying about the Big West Tourney?
Basketball Prospectus actually gives CSUF the best chance to win the auto bid.
ESPN Bracketology which just seems to pick the regular season conference champ, likes the Gauchos.
Come back this week for all sorts of nifty features and analysis as the Gauchos prepare for the Big West Tournament. Before I let you go, keep in mind the Gauchos mission for the week: every game is important. Go Gauchos
Sunday, March 9, 2008
UCSB at LBSU Recap
Congratulations to the Gauchos who pulled off a victory yesterday afternoon against the 49ers to get themselves the #1 seed headed into the Big West Tournament. The Gauchos new mission: win two games and you get an NCAA Tournament berth.
Now, let's talk about yesterday's game. It was a weird game indeed, especially the last 5 seconds of overtime. First, LBSU fouls Chris Devine with less than half a second left in the first overtime. Devine misses his first free throw. Then, in an attempt to ice Devine, Dan Munson, LBSU's coach calls a timeout. The problem? He doesn't have any timeouts left. That inexplicable gaffe allowed the Gauchos to get two more free throws courtesy of the technical foul.
The game was played at a pace of 59, which is surprising because LBSU isn't one of the slower teams in the Big West. Offensively, the Gauchos scored a 105.4 on the efficiency meter and allowed LBSU to register a 102.4. Although their defense was it's typical turnover causing machine, the Gauchos allowed LBSU to stay in the game (although I think it was more due to really good streaky shooting by one Donovan Morris.
Effective Field Goal Percentage
UCSB: 57.8%
LBSU: 54.4%
This is where the Gauchos allowed the 49ers to stay in the game. The Gauchos had a great shooting day and so did the 49ers. Unfortunately, the Gauchos pulled it off due to, basically, one more three pointer. This game was very evenly matched, from the Free Throws to the three point shooting. Not much to say except LBSU matched us with every shot except for a couple.
Offensive Rebounding Percentage
UCSB: 27.7%
LBSU: 22.6%
Another good performance on the offensive glass by UCSB. Although they only pulled down 6 offensive boards, it was still almost a 30% of the potential offensive boards they could get. The Gauchos have been improving in this area lately and TGM likes what he sees. Again, Devine and Nedim had solid rebounding games. Keep this up during Big West fellas.
Free Throw Rate
UCSB: 53.3
LBSU: 55.6
The Gauchos went 18-24, the 49ers 19-25. Good job getting to the line and making your shots, gentlemen. The only complaint was we need to attack the basket at a greater frequency and get to the foul line even more. Still, if you would have told me I'd be complaining about 24 attempts a couple of weeks ago, I would have said you're crazy. Such is the life of a fan.
Turnover Percentage
UCSB: 27.1%
LBSU: 21.1%
This is the area that really allowed LBSU to stay in the game. LBSU had 16 turnovers, the Gauchos had 18. This was actually one of the highest turnover percentage games that the Gauchos had all season. So, be thankful the Gauchos were able to pull out the victory. They still did a good job on the defensive end by forcing LBSU into 16 turnovers.
As you can see, this game was a lot closer than it probably should have been. In fact, I think it's been the most even game all season that I've seen. However, the impressive thing is that the Gauchos pulled off the victory when they could have folded. Now, it's onto a week of waiting to find out the fate of the Gauchos. Anything less than a NCAA Tournament berth should be considered a disappointment. TGM has faith in the Gauchos and likes their chances to advance.
Now, let's talk about yesterday's game. It was a weird game indeed, especially the last 5 seconds of overtime. First, LBSU fouls Chris Devine with less than half a second left in the first overtime. Devine misses his first free throw. Then, in an attempt to ice Devine, Dan Munson, LBSU's coach calls a timeout. The problem? He doesn't have any timeouts left. That inexplicable gaffe allowed the Gauchos to get two more free throws courtesy of the technical foul.
The game was played at a pace of 59, which is surprising because LBSU isn't one of the slower teams in the Big West. Offensively, the Gauchos scored a 105.4 on the efficiency meter and allowed LBSU to register a 102.4. Although their defense was it's typical turnover causing machine, the Gauchos allowed LBSU to stay in the game (although I think it was more due to really good streaky shooting by one Donovan Morris.
Effective Field Goal Percentage
UCSB: 57.8%
LBSU: 54.4%
This is where the Gauchos allowed the 49ers to stay in the game. The Gauchos had a great shooting day and so did the 49ers. Unfortunately, the Gauchos pulled it off due to, basically, one more three pointer. This game was very evenly matched, from the Free Throws to the three point shooting. Not much to say except LBSU matched us with every shot except for a couple.
Offensive Rebounding Percentage
UCSB: 27.7%
LBSU: 22.6%
Another good performance on the offensive glass by UCSB. Although they only pulled down 6 offensive boards, it was still almost a 30% of the potential offensive boards they could get. The Gauchos have been improving in this area lately and TGM likes what he sees. Again, Devine and Nedim had solid rebounding games. Keep this up during Big West fellas.
Free Throw Rate
UCSB: 53.3
LBSU: 55.6
The Gauchos went 18-24, the 49ers 19-25. Good job getting to the line and making your shots, gentlemen. The only complaint was we need to attack the basket at a greater frequency and get to the foul line even more. Still, if you would have told me I'd be complaining about 24 attempts a couple of weeks ago, I would have said you're crazy. Such is the life of a fan.
Turnover Percentage
UCSB: 27.1%
LBSU: 21.1%
This is the area that really allowed LBSU to stay in the game. LBSU had 16 turnovers, the Gauchos had 18. This was actually one of the highest turnover percentage games that the Gauchos had all season. So, be thankful the Gauchos were able to pull out the victory. They still did a good job on the defensive end by forcing LBSU into 16 turnovers.
As you can see, this game was a lot closer than it probably should have been. In fact, I think it's been the most even game all season that I've seen. However, the impressive thing is that the Gauchos pulled off the victory when they could have folded. Now, it's onto a week of waiting to find out the fate of the Gauchos. Anything less than a NCAA Tournament berth should be considered a disappointment. TGM has faith in the Gauchos and likes their chances to advance.
Saturday, March 8, 2008
UCSB at LBSU
March 8, 2008
UCSB Gauchos vs. LBSU 49ers
4:00 pm (PST)
Blogger has been acting up this morning, so unfortunately, it's been difficult trying to post. Fed up with this problem, I'm posting what everyone already knows.
Without beating around the bush, the Gauchos need to win today, there is nothing else to it. Win = #1 seed. Lose and you've got problems.
Also, Channelsurfing.net has the game listed on their site, so check it out.
Go Gauchos
UCSB Gauchos vs. LBSU 49ers
4:00 pm (PST)
Blogger has been acting up this morning, so unfortunately, it's been difficult trying to post. Fed up with this problem, I'm posting what everyone already knows.
Without beating around the bush, the Gauchos need to win today, there is nothing else to it. Win = #1 seed. Lose and you've got problems.
Also, Channelsurfing.net has the game listed on their site, so check it out.
Go Gauchos
Friday, March 7, 2008
UCSB at CSUN Recap
With a 77-66 victory over the Matadors, only a victory over the Long Beach State 49ers stands in the Gauchos way of getting a #1 seed in the Big West Tournament. While watching the game, my initial thoughts were that the Gauchos looked very good most of the time, but made some silly mistakes at points in the game. Looking at the box score was even more impressive.
This game was played to a pace of 73. The game seemed slower because the Gauchos got to the free throw line 39 times, slowing the pace. The Gauchos were efficient with a rating of 104.9, and held CSUN to a rating of 90.0. Truth be told, I expected UCSB's offensive rating to be much higher because they seemed to be so much more efficient.
Effective Field Goal Percentage
UCSB: 54.3%
CSUN: 45.0%
UCSB looked good on offense last night. This was the first time (that I noticed) the Gauchos off-the-ball players moving around and setting picks. This was especially evident early in the first half when the Gauchos seemed to get easy lay-up after easy lay-up. UCSB did a good job of finding the man down low and working the ball out and around the key when necessary.
The Gauchos made 7 of 18 three pointers for 38.9%, while holding CSUN to 5-21 (23.8%). The Gauchos hit the three pointers when they were open and didn't appear to force too many three pointers. A few of the CSUN three pointers came from NBA range, which is an indication of the defensive effort the Gauchos put out.
Free Throw Rate
UCSB: 83.0
CSUN: 62.0
After the game, I was very impressed with the number of times the Gauchos got to the line. They put CSUN into foul trouble early and took advantage in the second half. The only problem was the first half free throws. The Gauchos had the bonus early on, but didn't appear all too interested in attacking the hoop and getting to the line (of course, that could have been a result of the wide open lay-ups they were getting).
The second half was a different story as the Gauchos got to the line 30 times (39 total in the game). If UCSB shot their normal 75% (instead of 66.7%), this victory would have been more impressive. Paul Roemer was the main offender going 1-5, as everyone else shot well from the line. Their free throw shooting prowess paid off in the end when the Matadors were forced to put the Gauchos on the line and they made them pay.
Offensive Rebounding Percentage
UCSB: 25.4%
CSUN: 22.4%
This was the second area I was really impressed with. Early in the game, the Gauchos were getting to the glass and seemed to be swiping everything in sight. Although they gathered three more rebounds than CSUN, this was as impressive a performance as I've seen. Everyone got into the act, led by Mr. Harris' 7 boards.
Turnover Percentage
UCSB: 19.1%
CSUN: 24.5%
This category would have been much higher save for a couple really bad Gaucho decisions. All in all, UCSB did a good job of forcing turnovers and making CSUN play to their style. For once, the Gauchos seemed to impose their defensive style on the Matadors and it paid off with some nice turnovers, especially to start the game.
It was a good victory for the Gauchos and I'm looking forward to Saturday's afternoon matchup with the 49ers.
This game was played to a pace of 73. The game seemed slower because the Gauchos got to the free throw line 39 times, slowing the pace. The Gauchos were efficient with a rating of 104.9, and held CSUN to a rating of 90.0. Truth be told, I expected UCSB's offensive rating to be much higher because they seemed to be so much more efficient.
Effective Field Goal Percentage
UCSB: 54.3%
CSUN: 45.0%
UCSB looked good on offense last night. This was the first time (that I noticed) the Gauchos off-the-ball players moving around and setting picks. This was especially evident early in the first half when the Gauchos seemed to get easy lay-up after easy lay-up. UCSB did a good job of finding the man down low and working the ball out and around the key when necessary.
The Gauchos made 7 of 18 three pointers for 38.9%, while holding CSUN to 5-21 (23.8%). The Gauchos hit the three pointers when they were open and didn't appear to force too many three pointers. A few of the CSUN three pointers came from NBA range, which is an indication of the defensive effort the Gauchos put out.
Free Throw Rate
UCSB: 83.0
CSUN: 62.0
After the game, I was very impressed with the number of times the Gauchos got to the line. They put CSUN into foul trouble early and took advantage in the second half. The only problem was the first half free throws. The Gauchos had the bonus early on, but didn't appear all too interested in attacking the hoop and getting to the line (of course, that could have been a result of the wide open lay-ups they were getting).
The second half was a different story as the Gauchos got to the line 30 times (39 total in the game). If UCSB shot their normal 75% (instead of 66.7%), this victory would have been more impressive. Paul Roemer was the main offender going 1-5, as everyone else shot well from the line. Their free throw shooting prowess paid off in the end when the Matadors were forced to put the Gauchos on the line and they made them pay.
Offensive Rebounding Percentage
UCSB: 25.4%
CSUN: 22.4%
This was the second area I was really impressed with. Early in the game, the Gauchos were getting to the glass and seemed to be swiping everything in sight. Although they gathered three more rebounds than CSUN, this was as impressive a performance as I've seen. Everyone got into the act, led by Mr. Harris' 7 boards.
Turnover Percentage
UCSB: 19.1%
CSUN: 24.5%
This category would have been much higher save for a couple really bad Gaucho decisions. All in all, UCSB did a good job of forcing turnovers and making CSUN play to their style. For once, the Gauchos seemed to impose their defensive style on the Matadors and it paid off with some nice turnovers, especially to start the game.
It was a good victory for the Gauchos and I'm looking forward to Saturday's afternoon matchup with the 49ers.
Thursday, March 6, 2008
3/6/08: UCSB at CSUN
UCSB Gauchos (20-7, 10-4) at Cal State Northridge Matadors (18-8, 11-3)
March 6, 2008, 7:00 pm (PST)
TV: Channelsurfing.net says they will have the game tonight.
Here is the preview from Basketball Prospectus.com which has this as one of their games of the night.
For those of you who missed yesterday's post, here's the nitty gritty. UCSB is in firm control of their destiny. If they win these next two games, the Gauchos take possession of the #1 seed in Big West Tournament play. Lose one game and it's up to the basketball gods to decide what seed the Gauchos receive.
Last time the Gauchos and Matadors met up, the Matadors came away with a close victory (88-84) courtesy of Deon Tresvant's hot hand. Tonight, let's hope the outcome turns out different. The Matadors were slightly better in most of the categories we care about (last match-up).
As everyone is well aware of by this point, UCSB will copy the pace their opponent wants to play. CSUN plays at a pace of 75.0 possessions per game and on their January 5 match-up, the two teams played to a pace of 78. From an efficiency standpoint, UCSB is sitting right around 103 per game, while CSUN is about even with the Gauchos. Of CSUN's 5 slowest paced games, CSUN has lost 4 of them. Maybe the Gauchos should consider slow playing the Matadors tonight.
CSUN is a very good team defensively, which is what makes them so dangerous. They play a fast pace with good defense. See below for the preview, but that combination always makes for a dangerous match-up for anyone.
Let's look at how they match up.
Effective Field Goal Percentage
UCSB: 52.1%
CSUN: 51.7%
UCSB clearly gets their edge from their three point shooting. If those shots fall, the Gauchos stand a good chance at winning tonight.
Turnover Percentage
UCSB: 21.1% (offense)
CSUN: 21.4% (offense)
Defensively is where this battle will be won. CSUN is the 14th rated team by Turnover Percentage, while UCSB is 3rd in the country. The team that is able to hold onto the ball (Yes, Nedim, that includes you) will stand a clear advantage as both teams use turnovers to their benefit.
Offensive Rebounding Percentage
UCSB: 28.6%
CSUN: 33.2%
No surprise here as the Gauchos are one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the country. They're also horrible on the defensive end, which means that CSUN will have plenty of opportunities unless someone mans up tonight and locks down the defensive glass. If they don't, this game could get ugly. If they do lock the glass down, this could give the Gauchos the edge they need.
Free Throw Rate
UCSB: 24.5
CSUN: 23.4
For being the 10th best free throw shooting team in the country, UCSB does not do a good job of getting to the line. They are in the lower echelon of the nation in this category and they're sending their opponent to the line a lot (consequence of their defense). All this means the Gauchos better hit their free throws when they get there. Getting to the line will help the Gauchos in a couple of ways tonight. First, the game will be played at a quick pace (most likely) and UCSB probably doesn't have the depth to compete. Getting to the line will give their teammates a breather. Second, it will slow the game down and allow the Gauchos to set up the defense they want. Third, it will give them a moment to clear their minds from the rapid pace of the game and get some instructions from the bench (on second thought, maybe #3 isn't a good idea).
With that being said, TGM wants the Gauchos to take the Matadors down. This game will be close, no doubt, but TGM has faith in the Gauchos. Lots of fans are planning on making the trek. This could turn the Matadome into a virtual Thunderdome. TGM isn't in the prediction business, but I belive the Gauchos can pull it off. Good luck, and god speed men!
March 6, 2008, 7:00 pm (PST)
TV: Channelsurfing.net says they will have the game tonight.
Here is the preview from Basketball Prospectus.com which has this as one of their games of the night.
For those of you who missed yesterday's post, here's the nitty gritty. UCSB is in firm control of their destiny. If they win these next two games, the Gauchos take possession of the #1 seed in Big West Tournament play. Lose one game and it's up to the basketball gods to decide what seed the Gauchos receive.
Last time the Gauchos and Matadors met up, the Matadors came away with a close victory (88-84) courtesy of Deon Tresvant's hot hand. Tonight, let's hope the outcome turns out different. The Matadors were slightly better in most of the categories we care about (last match-up).
As everyone is well aware of by this point, UCSB will copy the pace their opponent wants to play. CSUN plays at a pace of 75.0 possessions per game and on their January 5 match-up, the two teams played to a pace of 78. From an efficiency standpoint, UCSB is sitting right around 103 per game, while CSUN is about even with the Gauchos. Of CSUN's 5 slowest paced games, CSUN has lost 4 of them. Maybe the Gauchos should consider slow playing the Matadors tonight.
CSUN is a very good team defensively, which is what makes them so dangerous. They play a fast pace with good defense. See below for the preview, but that combination always makes for a dangerous match-up for anyone.
Let's look at how they match up.
Effective Field Goal Percentage
UCSB: 52.1%
CSUN: 51.7%
UCSB clearly gets their edge from their three point shooting. If those shots fall, the Gauchos stand a good chance at winning tonight.
Turnover Percentage
UCSB: 21.1% (offense)
CSUN: 21.4% (offense)
Defensively is where this battle will be won. CSUN is the 14th rated team by Turnover Percentage, while UCSB is 3rd in the country. The team that is able to hold onto the ball (Yes, Nedim, that includes you) will stand a clear advantage as both teams use turnovers to their benefit.
Offensive Rebounding Percentage
UCSB: 28.6%
CSUN: 33.2%
No surprise here as the Gauchos are one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the country. They're also horrible on the defensive end, which means that CSUN will have plenty of opportunities unless someone mans up tonight and locks down the defensive glass. If they don't, this game could get ugly. If they do lock the glass down, this could give the Gauchos the edge they need.
Free Throw Rate
UCSB: 24.5
CSUN: 23.4
For being the 10th best free throw shooting team in the country, UCSB does not do a good job of getting to the line. They are in the lower echelon of the nation in this category and they're sending their opponent to the line a lot (consequence of their defense). All this means the Gauchos better hit their free throws when they get there. Getting to the line will help the Gauchos in a couple of ways tonight. First, the game will be played at a quick pace (most likely) and UCSB probably doesn't have the depth to compete. Getting to the line will give their teammates a breather. Second, it will slow the game down and allow the Gauchos to set up the defense they want. Third, it will give them a moment to clear their minds from the rapid pace of the game and get some instructions from the bench (on second thought, maybe #3 isn't a good idea).
With that being said, TGM wants the Gauchos to take the Matadors down. This game will be close, no doubt, but TGM has faith in the Gauchos. Lots of fans are planning on making the trek. This could turn the Matadome into a virtual Thunderdome. TGM isn't in the prediction business, but I belive the Gauchos can pull it off. Good luck, and god speed men!
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Winning the Big West
After posting my rant on how the Gauchos must NOT choke tomorrow because I want them to finish as regular season champs, I decided to find out what that means for the Gauchos. In other words, does winning the Big West regular season title translate favorably to an NCAA Tournament berth (i.e. their chances of winning of the Conference Tournament). Below are the results of my findings, courtesy of statsheet.com. If the tournament champ was not the regular season champ, the tournament champs regular season rank is in the parenthesis.
2006-2007
Regular Season Champ: Long Beach State
Tournament Champ: Long Beach State
2005-2006
Regular Season Champ: Pacific
Tournament Champ: Pacific
2004-2005
Regular Season Champ: Pacific
Tournament Champ: Utah State (2)
2003-2004
Regular Season Champ: Utah State, Pacific
Tournament Champ: Pacific
2002-2003
Regular Season Champ: UCSB
Tournament Champ: Utah State (3)
2001-2002
Regular Season Champ: Utah State, Irvine
Tournament Champ: UCSB (three-way tie for 3rd)
2000-2001
Regular Season Champ: Irvine
Tournament Champ: Utah State (2)
1999-2000
Regular Season Champ: Utah State
Tournament Champ: Utah State
1998-1999
Regular Season Champ: Boise State, New Mexico State, UCSB
Tournament Champ: New Mexico State
1997-1998
Regular Season Champ: Pacific
Tournament Champ: Utah State (2)
1996-1997
Regular Season Champ: Pacific, Utah State, Nevada
Tournament Champ: Pacific
In 6 out of the 11 years used in the "study," the regular season champ took the automatic bid. Those other 5 years, it was either a #2 or #3 seed which took the auto bid. While this is by no means scientific, the probabilities slightly favor the #1 seed, and it's not by much.
One interesting thing to note is that in the years Utah State took the tournament berth (in which they weren't the #1 seed), they had a better overall record than the regular season champ (despite a worse conference record). We'll see if that bodes well for UCSB, who have the best overall record in the Big West.
Of all the possible outcomes from the last two games, UCSB stands a good chance of getting the #1, #2 or #3 seed. Using the evidence from above, there is nothing to suggest that UCSB doesn't have a legitimate chance at winning the Conference Tournament.
2006-2007
Regular Season Champ: Long Beach State
Tournament Champ: Long Beach State
2005-2006
Regular Season Champ: Pacific
Tournament Champ: Pacific
2004-2005
Regular Season Champ: Pacific
Tournament Champ: Utah State (2)
2003-2004
Regular Season Champ: Utah State, Pacific
Tournament Champ: Pacific
2002-2003
Regular Season Champ: UCSB
Tournament Champ: Utah State (3)
2001-2002
Regular Season Champ: Utah State, Irvine
Tournament Champ: UCSB (three-way tie for 3rd)
2000-2001
Regular Season Champ: Irvine
Tournament Champ: Utah State (2)
1999-2000
Regular Season Champ: Utah State
Tournament Champ: Utah State
1998-1999
Regular Season Champ: Boise State, New Mexico State, UCSB
Tournament Champ: New Mexico State
1997-1998
Regular Season Champ: Pacific
Tournament Champ: Utah State (2)
1996-1997
Regular Season Champ: Pacific, Utah State, Nevada
Tournament Champ: Pacific
In 6 out of the 11 years used in the "study," the regular season champ took the automatic bid. Those other 5 years, it was either a #2 or #3 seed which took the auto bid. While this is by no means scientific, the probabilities slightly favor the #1 seed, and it's not by much.
One interesting thing to note is that in the years Utah State took the tournament berth (in which they weren't the #1 seed), they had a better overall record than the regular season champ (despite a worse conference record). We'll see if that bodes well for UCSB, who have the best overall record in the Big West.
Of all the possible outcomes from the last two games, UCSB stands a good chance of getting the #1, #2 or #3 seed. Using the evidence from above, there is nothing to suggest that UCSB doesn't have a legitimate chance at winning the Conference Tournament.
Masters of Their Own Destiny
By now you are well aware that UCSB now controls their fate for the chance to be the Big West regular season champs. It's as simple as this; win two games (CSUN and LBSU) and you're the #1 seed. But is it really that simple? After all, Bob Williams has a tendency to let Gaucho Nation (that's right bitches, we're a nation!) down with a depressing performance when the big time comes calling.
TGM wants the Gauchos to win and does not root for the Gauchos to lose. With that being said, I have come to temper my expectations over the years. If I've learned one thing, it's that Bob let's me down when my hopes are the highest (more on this to come).
However, getting these two wins isn't as easy as it seems. Allow me to invoke some history. If you recall in November, the Ohio State Buckeyes were sitting pretty as the #1 ranked team in the BCS standings. All they had to do was beat an ok Illinois team at home on November 10, then they had a showdown with Michigan the following week. Michigan, if you recall, started off their season horribly, losing to Appalachian St. and Oregon. These two games looked like a cakewalk. Win and the Buckeyes are in the National Championship Game whether you like it or not. Lose and you need some serious help. If you have forgotten the outcome of the Illinois game, here is the ESPN recap.
Now you remember that Ohio State lost and they needed a miracle to earn the right to get their ass kicked in the BCS Championship Game.
What am I trying to say? UCSB better bring the wood tomorrow night baby! That's what I'm sayin'! I'm sick of these excuses and lame performances when it counts (see our last two televised games, Utah St. and Irvine). They need to show up and wreck some CSUN fools! Send CSUN back to their crappy campus whilst you bask in the glory that is IV on Thursday night.
Really, though, the Gauchos need to win these two games. They need this first place seed. Not because it really matters, but because it's a psychological boost. The rest of the chump-ass Big West will realize that UCSB is for real if they storm back and take first place with two straight victories.
If UCSB doesn't win both of these games, I will never ever give Bob Williams the benefit of the doubt again. These two games will be a testament to the desire of the entire team and to see how bad they want it. If Bob can't get these guys ready for these two games, he'll never be able to.
My prediction: the Gauchos take the title with two victories.
TGM wants the Gauchos to win and does not root for the Gauchos to lose. With that being said, I have come to temper my expectations over the years. If I've learned one thing, it's that Bob let's me down when my hopes are the highest (more on this to come).
However, getting these two wins isn't as easy as it seems. Allow me to invoke some history. If you recall in November, the Ohio State Buckeyes were sitting pretty as the #1 ranked team in the BCS standings. All they had to do was beat an ok Illinois team at home on November 10, then they had a showdown with Michigan the following week. Michigan, if you recall, started off their season horribly, losing to Appalachian St. and Oregon. These two games looked like a cakewalk. Win and the Buckeyes are in the National Championship Game whether you like it or not. Lose and you need some serious help. If you have forgotten the outcome of the Illinois game, here is the ESPN recap.
Now you remember that Ohio State lost and they needed a miracle to earn the right to get their ass kicked in the BCS Championship Game.
What am I trying to say? UCSB better bring the wood tomorrow night baby! That's what I'm sayin'! I'm sick of these excuses and lame performances when it counts (see our last two televised games, Utah St. and Irvine). They need to show up and wreck some CSUN fools! Send CSUN back to their crappy campus whilst you bask in the glory that is IV on Thursday night.
Really, though, the Gauchos need to win these two games. They need this first place seed. Not because it really matters, but because it's a psychological boost. The rest of the chump-ass Big West will realize that UCSB is for real if they storm back and take first place with two straight victories.
If UCSB doesn't win both of these games, I will never ever give Bob Williams the benefit of the doubt again. These two games will be a testament to the desire of the entire team and to see how bad they want it. If Bob can't get these guys ready for these two games, he'll never be able to.
My prediction: the Gauchos take the title with two victories.
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
UCSB vs. UCR Recap
First off, my apologies to the three remaining readers I have on this blog. Sometimes my other career as a law student conflicts with the writing of this blog. On that note, I want to make it up to everyone with a couple extra posts this week in time for the stretch run toward the NCAA Tournament.
Obviously, by now, you should have heard that UCSB beat Riverside 73-55 on Saturday night. What you might not know is that UCSB now controls their own destiny for the #1 seed in the Big West Tournament (There will be a blog on this later). It's simple, beat CSUN and LBSU and you get the #1 seed; lose and you need help to get that #1 seed. To me, this is a true test of the Gaucho coaching staff and players. If they can't pull this off, they lack the requisite intensity and desire to dominate in basketball.
As always, we like to talk about pace around here. If you recall, a couple of weeks ago, TGM analyzed the Gauchos performance ("pace-wise") against the three slowest teams in the Big West: Riverside, Davis and Irvine. The Gauchos have a tendency to play sl0oooooooooooooow when their opponent plays sloooooooooooow. Of course, some things never change; the sky is blue, the sun rises in the East and I'm still a good looking guy (we like to butter our toast around here when necessary). As one would expect, the Gauchos played a pace of 58 versus the Highlanders. Five of the Gauchos six games against the above three teams have been played at a pace of 60 or lower.
Impressively enough, however, the Gauchos still managed to reel off 73 points, courtesy of James Powell's billion three pointers. From an efficiency standpoint, the Gauchos had their most efficient game of the season with a 124.7 (of course, this is a major reason why they scored 73). If the Gauchos can keep their efficiency above the 110 mark, it will be difficult for them to lose in the Big West Tournament.
Let's take a look at the Four Factors
Effective Field Goal Percentage
UCSB: 64.3%
UCR: 45.1%
For the second go-round with Riverside, the Gauchos had an EFG% around 64%. Obviously, they have the Highlanders' number, despite the slow play. This number was helped tremendously by the Gauchos 11-19 three point shooting performance.
Free Throw Rate
UCSB: 26.5
UCR: 61.0
Riverside's high score in this category was a result of getting to the line 25 times. The Gauchos went 10-13 from the line to prove to us all that they haven't lost the magical free throw stroke.
Offensive Rebounding Percentage
UCSB: 39.6%
UCR: 36.5%
YES!!! The Gauchos won the battle. UCSB gathered a higher percentage of their offensive rebounds than UCR. Unfortunately, we don't have a stat (or at least, I can't find one) that gives me second chance points. On the negative side, the Gauchos gave up 10 offensive boards.
Turnover Percentage
UCSB: 22.2%
UCR: 25.6%
If there is one thing you should have learned about the Gauchos this season, it's this: they are one of the best turnover percentage teams in the country on the defensive side. UCR turned it over a little under UCSB's average, but one quarter of their possessions turning into a turnover is nothing to scoff at.
On the offensive side, Ivan Elliot was a turnover machine for the Gauchos, coughing it up 4 times. On the plus side, Nedim had a turnover free game for the second consecutive time. His Globetrotter passes have taken a back seat.
One other thing to note. This is the first game, in a while, that I recall the Gauchos playing more than 7 players 10 minutes or more. 9 players hit the 10 minute mark or higher, while Beau Gibb had 7 minutes. I don't know if it's a coincidence that the Gauchos played so well when so many of the players got playing time, but it's something that I would advocate Bob Williams to continue in the future.
Obviously, by now, you should have heard that UCSB beat Riverside 73-55 on Saturday night. What you might not know is that UCSB now controls their own destiny for the #1 seed in the Big West Tournament (There will be a blog on this later). It's simple, beat CSUN and LBSU and you get the #1 seed; lose and you need help to get that #1 seed. To me, this is a true test of the Gaucho coaching staff and players. If they can't pull this off, they lack the requisite intensity and desire to dominate in basketball.
As always, we like to talk about pace around here. If you recall, a couple of weeks ago, TGM analyzed the Gauchos performance ("pace-wise") against the three slowest teams in the Big West: Riverside, Davis and Irvine. The Gauchos have a tendency to play sl0oooooooooooooow when their opponent plays sloooooooooooow. Of course, some things never change; the sky is blue, the sun rises in the East and I'm still a good looking guy (we like to butter our toast around here when necessary). As one would expect, the Gauchos played a pace of 58 versus the Highlanders. Five of the Gauchos six games against the above three teams have been played at a pace of 60 or lower.
Impressively enough, however, the Gauchos still managed to reel off 73 points, courtesy of James Powell's billion three pointers. From an efficiency standpoint, the Gauchos had their most efficient game of the season with a 124.7 (of course, this is a major reason why they scored 73). If the Gauchos can keep their efficiency above the 110 mark, it will be difficult for them to lose in the Big West Tournament.
Let's take a look at the Four Factors
Effective Field Goal Percentage
UCSB: 64.3%
UCR: 45.1%
For the second go-round with Riverside, the Gauchos had an EFG% around 64%. Obviously, they have the Highlanders' number, despite the slow play. This number was helped tremendously by the Gauchos 11-19 three point shooting performance.
Free Throw Rate
UCSB: 26.5
UCR: 61.0
Riverside's high score in this category was a result of getting to the line 25 times. The Gauchos went 10-13 from the line to prove to us all that they haven't lost the magical free throw stroke.
Offensive Rebounding Percentage
UCSB: 39.6%
UCR: 36.5%
YES!!! The Gauchos won the battle. UCSB gathered a higher percentage of their offensive rebounds than UCR. Unfortunately, we don't have a stat (or at least, I can't find one) that gives me second chance points. On the negative side, the Gauchos gave up 10 offensive boards.
Turnover Percentage
UCSB: 22.2%
UCR: 25.6%
If there is one thing you should have learned about the Gauchos this season, it's this: they are one of the best turnover percentage teams in the country on the defensive side. UCR turned it over a little under UCSB's average, but one quarter of their possessions turning into a turnover is nothing to scoff at.
On the offensive side, Ivan Elliot was a turnover machine for the Gauchos, coughing it up 4 times. On the plus side, Nedim had a turnover free game for the second consecutive time. His Globetrotter passes have taken a back seat.
One other thing to note. This is the first game, in a while, that I recall the Gauchos playing more than 7 players 10 minutes or more. 9 players hit the 10 minute mark or higher, while Beau Gibb had 7 minutes. I don't know if it's a coincidence that the Gauchos played so well when so many of the players got playing time, but it's something that I would advocate Bob Williams to continue in the future.
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Shot Selection
This morning, on basketballprospectus.com, I came across an interesting article on shot selection from Ken Pomeroy. You can find the link below.
http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=191
Here is a look at the chart they came up with. It's really fuzzy, but click on the link to see the real deal. The red line is the shots per game on average from each game. The x-axis represents the distance from the hoop. The blue line represents the percentage each shot is made from each distance.
As Ken Pomeroy points out, coaches guarding the three point line religiously and forcing players to shoot the mid-range is likely a very good strategy. It forces players to shoot in an area they aren't all that comfortable with.
For my three loyal readers, you know that I'm an advocate that the Gauchos should allow the horrible three point shooting teams they play to huck up the three with reckless abandon. However, after reading Ken Pomeroy's piece and seeing the data, TGM is in the process of reconsidering that position.
The problem with the Gauchos, though, isn't their defense. In fact, their defense has a 26.9% turnover percentage, which is phenomenal. According to kenpom.com, that puts the Gauchos at #2 in the nation. Turnover percentage equalizes teams who play faster pace with slower paces. As a result, it's an objective measure that determines how good you really are on defense.
So, while this chart is awesome, the problem that needs to be fixed is the Gauchos offense. How do we do that? Well, my suggestion is to go back through this blog and see what you think. Hint: it involves shooting the three, driving to the basket for close range shots and getting to the free throw line.
http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=191
Here is a look at the chart they came up with. It's really fuzzy, but click on the link to see the real deal. The red line is the shots per game on average from each game. The x-axis represents the distance from the hoop. The blue line represents the percentage each shot is made from each distance.
As Ken Pomeroy points out, coaches guarding the three point line religiously and forcing players to shoot the mid-range is likely a very good strategy. It forces players to shoot in an area they aren't all that comfortable with.For my three loyal readers, you know that I'm an advocate that the Gauchos should allow the horrible three point shooting teams they play to huck up the three with reckless abandon. However, after reading Ken Pomeroy's piece and seeing the data, TGM is in the process of reconsidering that position.
The problem with the Gauchos, though, isn't their defense. In fact, their defense has a 26.9% turnover percentage, which is phenomenal. According to kenpom.com, that puts the Gauchos at #2 in the nation. Turnover percentage equalizes teams who play faster pace with slower paces. As a result, it's an objective measure that determines how good you really are on defense.
So, while this chart is awesome, the problem that needs to be fixed is the Gauchos offense. How do we do that? Well, my suggestion is to go back through this blog and see what you think. Hint: it involves shooting the three, driving to the basket for close range shots and getting to the free throw line.
Sunday, February 24, 2008
Excuses...
There goes an old saying that goes like this: an excuse is like an @**hole, everyone has one and they all stink. Too many excuses have been made for the Gauchos poor performance on Friday night. To those who make excuses TGM says bullshit!
Those who say the game doesn't or didn't matter must have been or are smoking crack (or some other variation). Sure, the game can be considered an out of conference "distraction" because the team is fighting for a Big West seed. Of course, these people haven't taken their rose tinted glasses off long enough to realize that the UCSB has been dusted each time it's played a tournament worthy foe, save UNLV. This game did matter, why? For starters, UCSB is playing a horrendously weak schedule this year (TGM concedes that it is difficult to determine who will be "good" a year or two in advance). A victory over Utah State may not have made their RPI jump into the stratosphere, however, it would have given the Gauchos some ammo and belief that they can run with a tournament worthy foe. Second, what better motivation heading into the Big West final lap than a beatdown of Utah State? A victory like that provides confidence going into your next fight. Third, of all the Big West teams to play over the weekend, only UCSB and LBSU got beat around by their opponent. That, my friends, is a serious downer.
Then there are those who say that the Gauchos played 4 games in 9 days. To that, TGM says, poor Gauchos. Last time TGM checked, the team consisted of 18-25 year old athletes in prime condition. They play a sport that requires them to run a lot of distance. If they got tired they should go try out for the baseball team; I hear they don't do much running. This excuse is an even bigger crock of shit than the game didn't matter. If you're making excuses for the Gauchos now, what are you going to be saying when it's Big West tourney time?
There are multitudes of other excuses that have emerged from the woodwork over the course of the season, but for time reasons, TGM can't go into all of them. Silly reasoning can also be lumped into this category. One of the most absurd reasons is the one that some people throw out by saying that Bob Williams is just the man to lead us out of our despair. How many seasons of mediocrity must we endure before these people have had enough? Just because he's led the Gauchos to the NCAA Tourney exactly once in his ten year career proves nothing. If you play the odds long enough, you're going to hit the jackpot once in a while (except for the lottery).
Obviously this is more of a venting post. Some people may think the reasons above are perfectly valid excuses. Some may agree with TGM. You're each entitled to your own opinion and TGM respects that (although TGM thinks you're an idiot if you don't agree with TGM).
Those who say the game doesn't or didn't matter must have been or are smoking crack (or some other variation). Sure, the game can be considered an out of conference "distraction" because the team is fighting for a Big West seed. Of course, these people haven't taken their rose tinted glasses off long enough to realize that the UCSB has been dusted each time it's played a tournament worthy foe, save UNLV. This game did matter, why? For starters, UCSB is playing a horrendously weak schedule this year (TGM concedes that it is difficult to determine who will be "good" a year or two in advance). A victory over Utah State may not have made their RPI jump into the stratosphere, however, it would have given the Gauchos some ammo and belief that they can run with a tournament worthy foe. Second, what better motivation heading into the Big West final lap than a beatdown of Utah State? A victory like that provides confidence going into your next fight. Third, of all the Big West teams to play over the weekend, only UCSB and LBSU got beat around by their opponent. That, my friends, is a serious downer.
Then there are those who say that the Gauchos played 4 games in 9 days. To that, TGM says, poor Gauchos. Last time TGM checked, the team consisted of 18-25 year old athletes in prime condition. They play a sport that requires them to run a lot of distance. If they got tired they should go try out for the baseball team; I hear they don't do much running. This excuse is an even bigger crock of shit than the game didn't matter. If you're making excuses for the Gauchos now, what are you going to be saying when it's Big West tourney time?
There are multitudes of other excuses that have emerged from the woodwork over the course of the season, but for time reasons, TGM can't go into all of them. Silly reasoning can also be lumped into this category. One of the most absurd reasons is the one that some people throw out by saying that Bob Williams is just the man to lead us out of our despair. How many seasons of mediocrity must we endure before these people have had enough? Just because he's led the Gauchos to the NCAA Tourney exactly once in his ten year career proves nothing. If you play the odds long enough, you're going to hit the jackpot once in a while (except for the lottery).
Obviously this is more of a venting post. Some people may think the reasons above are perfectly valid excuses. Some may agree with TGM. You're each entitled to your own opinion and TGM respects that (although TGM thinks you're an idiot if you don't agree with TGM).
BracketBuster Recap
TGM spaced out on Friday thinking the BracketBuster game was on Saturday. However, when TGM hit up the gym Friday night, he was shocked to see that the game was taking place in front of his very eyes.
Needless to say, it was a disappointing loss with the Gauchos going down in flames 72-59 to Utah State. The Gauchos always seem to play their worst on the "national" stage. Don't believe me? See Stanford, UNC and now Utah State. When I say "national," I mean games on television or against a well-known opponent. Three of the Gauchos three worst offensive efficiency rated games have come against said three opponents. Either the boys need to grow balls and turn into men or our coaches need to learn the definition of "big game."
From an efficiency standpoint, the Gauchos registered an 89.6. Utah State managed a 109.3, good for seventh best on the season against the Gauchos. To digress slightly, at least the Gauchos are consistent. The Gauchos have allowed 9 opponents to register 100 or higher on the efficiency scale. 7 of those 9 worst defensive performances have resulted in our losses. For those of you keeping score at home, we have 7 losses on the season.
Let's look at the Four Factors and see how miserable our performance was.
Effective Field Goal Percentage
UCSB: 41.1%
USU: 58.3%
UCSB was right around their three point percentage average with a 9-23. Unfortunately, they ran into the EFG% juggernaut that is Utah St. Taking away USU's three pointers (4-10), they shot 22-38 from inside the three. When they weren't busy torching us from inside the arc, they went to the line and killed us with 16-21.
Kudos to Alex Harris and James Powell for being the only dudes who showed up. If it wasn't for those two, an NAIA team (Westmont, anyone?) probably would have kicked our ass. Meanwhile, I'm pretty sure I saw a milk carton with a missing person's ad with Chris Devine's picture. Devine was the epitome of horrible, going 1-8 from the field, no free throw attempts, 1 rebound (not bad for a 6-9 forward) and 3 turnovers in 19 minutes. Seriously, when I saw that line, I thought they had confused Nedim for Chris Devine because there was no way (at least I thought) that he would have a line like that. Not to mention (this is really an assumption because I don't know), his counterpart on the Utah side, Tai Wesley, went 10-14 from the floor, 4-8 from the line, 9 rebounds, and 3 turnovers in 31 minutes. That, my friends, is the type of game where you can insert any AND 1 slogan and it will work. Take notes, son.
Free Throw Rate
UCSB: 17.7
USU: 43.8
UCSB got back to their normal percentage range on Friday. The problem? The problem was that they went 8-11, while sending Utah St. to the line 21 times. The embarrassing thing is that none of our forwards got to the free throw line once. I believe a couple midgets put in at forward could have gotten to the line at least once. That is about as pathetic a performance as you're going to see from the forwards. Whatever the opposite of mad props is, that's what I'm saying to the forwards tonight.
Offensive Rebounding Percentage
UCSB: 23.0%
USU: 29.4%
At first glance this stat isn't that bad. However, consider that Utah St. shot 54.2% from the field and 57.9% from inside the arc. Basically when Utah wasn't owning our defense, they were getting offensive rebounds. Of Utah State's 22 misses, they managed to snag 7 offensive boards, leaving 15 to the Gauchos.
Of UCSB's 41 misses, the Gauchos managed to get 9 offensive rebounds. This was the lone bright spot (kind of like finishing in last place, but still getting a medal) for the forwards.
This is one of the two stats that I've resigned our fate to. The other being free throws. Either the team is completely incapable of getting to the free throw line more than 15 times a game or the coaches don't tell them to get there, hence the players don't care. Same thing for offensive rebounds. Bob Williams needs to go to East Lansing when his season ends in mid-March and beg Tom Izzo to sit in on his practices and watch his players duke it out in rebounding drills. Then Bob needs to acquire some football pads and helmets for his players and make them fight each other for rebounds. Basically, rebounding comes down to how tough you are and how bad you want it. If you're a weakling and don't give a shit, then you're probably not going to grab a board. Want it more than the other guy and most of the time you'll win the battle.
Turnover Percentage
UCSB: 12.2%
USU: 24.3%
Actually, TGM was a little harsh earlier. This was another good spot for the team. They were able to double Utah State's turnover rate, as compared to UCSB's. In fact, the Gauchos only had 8 turnovers, which is quite impressive, compared to the 16 of USU.
That's all for the game analysis. Basically, we can sum the game performance up in two words: we sucked. Sometimes the truth hurts, but you gotta learn sooner rather than later. However, not all is doom and gloom for the Gauchos as they are still fighting for their lives in the Big West with three games to go. Get a #2 seed and they may have a chance at making the NCAA Tournament. Operative word is may.
Needless to say, it was a disappointing loss with the Gauchos going down in flames 72-59 to Utah State. The Gauchos always seem to play their worst on the "national" stage. Don't believe me? See Stanford, UNC and now Utah State. When I say "national," I mean games on television or against a well-known opponent. Three of the Gauchos three worst offensive efficiency rated games have come against said three opponents. Either the boys need to grow balls and turn into men or our coaches need to learn the definition of "big game."
From an efficiency standpoint, the Gauchos registered an 89.6. Utah State managed a 109.3, good for seventh best on the season against the Gauchos. To digress slightly, at least the Gauchos are consistent. The Gauchos have allowed 9 opponents to register 100 or higher on the efficiency scale. 7 of those 9 worst defensive performances have resulted in our losses. For those of you keeping score at home, we have 7 losses on the season.
Let's look at the Four Factors and see how miserable our performance was.
Effective Field Goal Percentage
UCSB: 41.1%
USU: 58.3%
UCSB was right around their three point percentage average with a 9-23. Unfortunately, they ran into the EFG% juggernaut that is Utah St. Taking away USU's three pointers (4-10), they shot 22-38 from inside the three. When they weren't busy torching us from inside the arc, they went to the line and killed us with 16-21.
Kudos to Alex Harris and James Powell for being the only dudes who showed up. If it wasn't for those two, an NAIA team (Westmont, anyone?) probably would have kicked our ass. Meanwhile, I'm pretty sure I saw a milk carton with a missing person's ad with Chris Devine's picture. Devine was the epitome of horrible, going 1-8 from the field, no free throw attempts, 1 rebound (not bad for a 6-9 forward) and 3 turnovers in 19 minutes. Seriously, when I saw that line, I thought they had confused Nedim for Chris Devine because there was no way (at least I thought) that he would have a line like that. Not to mention (this is really an assumption because I don't know), his counterpart on the Utah side, Tai Wesley, went 10-14 from the floor, 4-8 from the line, 9 rebounds, and 3 turnovers in 31 minutes. That, my friends, is the type of game where you can insert any AND 1 slogan and it will work. Take notes, son.
Free Throw Rate
UCSB: 17.7
USU: 43.8
UCSB got back to their normal percentage range on Friday. The problem? The problem was that they went 8-11, while sending Utah St. to the line 21 times. The embarrassing thing is that none of our forwards got to the free throw line once. I believe a couple midgets put in at forward could have gotten to the line at least once. That is about as pathetic a performance as you're going to see from the forwards. Whatever the opposite of mad props is, that's what I'm saying to the forwards tonight.
Offensive Rebounding Percentage
UCSB: 23.0%
USU: 29.4%
At first glance this stat isn't that bad. However, consider that Utah St. shot 54.2% from the field and 57.9% from inside the arc. Basically when Utah wasn't owning our defense, they were getting offensive rebounds. Of Utah State's 22 misses, they managed to snag 7 offensive boards, leaving 15 to the Gauchos.
Of UCSB's 41 misses, the Gauchos managed to get 9 offensive rebounds. This was the lone bright spot (kind of like finishing in last place, but still getting a medal) for the forwards.
This is one of the two stats that I've resigned our fate to. The other being free throws. Either the team is completely incapable of getting to the free throw line more than 15 times a game or the coaches don't tell them to get there, hence the players don't care. Same thing for offensive rebounds. Bob Williams needs to go to East Lansing when his season ends in mid-March and beg Tom Izzo to sit in on his practices and watch his players duke it out in rebounding drills. Then Bob needs to acquire some football pads and helmets for his players and make them fight each other for rebounds. Basically, rebounding comes down to how tough you are and how bad you want it. If you're a weakling and don't give a shit, then you're probably not going to grab a board. Want it more than the other guy and most of the time you'll win the battle.
Turnover Percentage
UCSB: 12.2%
USU: 24.3%
Actually, TGM was a little harsh earlier. This was another good spot for the team. They were able to double Utah State's turnover rate, as compared to UCSB's. In fact, the Gauchos only had 8 turnovers, which is quite impressive, compared to the 16 of USU.
That's all for the game analysis. Basically, we can sum the game performance up in two words: we sucked. Sometimes the truth hurts, but you gotta learn sooner rather than later. However, not all is doom and gloom for the Gauchos as they are still fighting for their lives in the Big West with three games to go. Get a #2 seed and they may have a chance at making the NCAA Tournament. Operative word is may.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
UCSB at Pacific Recap
20 wins. This is a nice accomplishment for the Gauchos. However, this 20 win season will be discounted in the eyes of many if the Gauchos fail to make the NCAA Tournament.
Last night was an impressive win. In case you failed to read TGM's preview (below), we weren't too confident that UCSB would pull out with a victory. TGM enjoyed a nice serving of humble pie today.
Last night's victory was important for multiple reasons. First, this victory put the Gauchos in sole possession of third place. With a match-up against Northridge, the Gauchos have a chance to help themselves in the standings if they take care of business. Second, while the final score was close, the Gauchos were able to keep a commanding lead for a majority of the game. Third, the Gauchos offensive output was not good. Despite that, they persevered and came out with a victory.
As said above, the Gauchos 98.8 efficiency rating on offense and held Pacific to 87.2. Regardless, they salvaged victory with a convincing win.
Effective Field Goal %
UCSB: 53.4%
Pacific: 45.8%
The Gauchos didn't spend much time hucking up the three last night. Instead, the focused on attacking the hoop inside the arc. Everyone was very efficient if you look at their total field goal percentages.
On defense, the Gauchos were aided by a 1-10 performance from Steffan Johnson. Most of the other Tigers were efficient.
Free Throw Rate
UCSB: 45.5
Pacific: 39.6
TGM is really proud of this line (sort of). The Gauchos got to the line 20 times. TGM is now slightly worried because UCSB shot 65% from the line again. No one was atrocious, but they need to get back to their solid FT shooting ways.
Offensive Rebounding Percentage
UCSB: 28.6%
Pacific: 43.8%
Again, one of the Gauchos biggest weaknesses was exploited again last night. Pacific gathered 14 offensive boards, while UCSB had 8. It's probably too late to change this nasty habit, but they really need to focus on it, if possible.
Turnover Percentage
UCSB: 24.7%
Pacific: 29.6%
The Gauchos did a good job of forcing turnovers last night. Unfortunately, the committed a couple turnovers themselves.
Interestingly, the Gauchos played at a pace of 60 last night, which is about 5 possessions slower than Pacific wants to play (according to conference numbers). While they weren't at the 100+ efficiency mark, I'll take this victory.
Next up is a tough match-up with Utah State in the Bracket Buster dealy-o.
Last night was an impressive win. In case you failed to read TGM's preview (below), we weren't too confident that UCSB would pull out with a victory. TGM enjoyed a nice serving of humble pie today.
Last night's victory was important for multiple reasons. First, this victory put the Gauchos in sole possession of third place. With a match-up against Northridge, the Gauchos have a chance to help themselves in the standings if they take care of business. Second, while the final score was close, the Gauchos were able to keep a commanding lead for a majority of the game. Third, the Gauchos offensive output was not good. Despite that, they persevered and came out with a victory.
As said above, the Gauchos 98.8 efficiency rating on offense and held Pacific to 87.2. Regardless, they salvaged victory with a convincing win.
Effective Field Goal %
UCSB: 53.4%
Pacific: 45.8%
The Gauchos didn't spend much time hucking up the three last night. Instead, the focused on attacking the hoop inside the arc. Everyone was very efficient if you look at their total field goal percentages.
On defense, the Gauchos were aided by a 1-10 performance from Steffan Johnson. Most of the other Tigers were efficient.
Free Throw Rate
UCSB: 45.5
Pacific: 39.6
TGM is really proud of this line (sort of). The Gauchos got to the line 20 times. TGM is now slightly worried because UCSB shot 65% from the line again. No one was atrocious, but they need to get back to their solid FT shooting ways.
Offensive Rebounding Percentage
UCSB: 28.6%
Pacific: 43.8%
Again, one of the Gauchos biggest weaknesses was exploited again last night. Pacific gathered 14 offensive boards, while UCSB had 8. It's probably too late to change this nasty habit, but they really need to focus on it, if possible.
Turnover Percentage
UCSB: 24.7%
Pacific: 29.6%
The Gauchos did a good job of forcing turnovers last night. Unfortunately, the committed a couple turnovers themselves.
Interestingly, the Gauchos played at a pace of 60 last night, which is about 5 possessions slower than Pacific wants to play (according to conference numbers). While they weren't at the 100+ efficiency mark, I'll take this victory.
Next up is a tough match-up with Utah State in the Bracket Buster dealy-o.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
2/20/08: UCSB at Pacific
UCSB Gauchos (19-6, 8-4) at Pacific Tigers (17-8, 8-4)
February 20, 2008, 7:00 p.m. (PST)
TV: Channelsurfing.net says that they will have the game.
The Gauchos are on the home stretch of the Big West regular season play. UCSB has four Big West games (including tonight's match-up), plus a Bracket Buster game on Saturday against Utah St. These final four games will go a long way to determine how many games the Gauchos get to play before their inevitable semi-final elimination (that occurs every year).
Effective Field Goal Percentage
UCSB: 52.6%
Pacific: 55.9%
Believe it or not, but Pacific is the 6th rated team (kenpom.com) when it comes to effective field goal percentage. What does this mean? UCSB will have to do a stellar job on the offensive end. Last time we met up with the Tigers, the Gauchos let the Tigers have an efficient day, registering a 111.6.
UCSB, on the other hand, had an inefficient day, coming up with a 91.2. That's not going to cut it tonight. Pacific has lost two in a row and they had their worst defensive performance of the year on Saturday by letting CSUF register a 126.3. Two things can happen after a performance like that; continue with their third crappy defensive performance or turn the intensity and mess the Gauchos up. Let's hope it's #1 because I don't have much faith in a Bob run team to overcome #2.
Free Throw Rate
UCSB: 24.9
Pacific: 32.4
This is Pacific's second biggest strength, as they are 13th in Division I. UCSB is going to have to keep the Tigers off the line, while increasing their chances at the line. Last game, against Davis, the Gauchos did a great job getting to the line. They were unable to convert, but I think that's an anomaly.
Offensive Rebounding Percentage
UCSB: 29.0%
Pacific: 32.2%
UCSB has to keep the Tigers off the board and work on getting their own offensive boards. This is UCSB's biggest weakness. They are a bad offensive rebounding team and allow their opponents to get a lot of offensive boards. If they can channel their inner Dennis Rodman, the Gauchos have a good opportunity to pull off the victory.
Turnover Percentage
UCSB: 21.3%
Pacific: 23.6%
Finally, an area where the Gauchos have a statistical advantage! Neither the Gauchos nor the Tigers are particularly good at keeping their turnovers down. The flip side of this is the Gauchos 4th ranked defense in this category. If they can take advantage of the Tigers propensity to turn the ball over, they can push the ball and get some easy buckets.
Tonight, I want a Gaucho win (like everyone else). However, TGM is feeling very skeptical today because this is the same type of situation that Bob's teams in the past have let us down. The Gauchos have an opportunity to lay claim to sole possession of third place since I don't even know when. I don't want to get my hopes up if the let-down occurs. Therefore, there will be no prediction, but I think this will be a tough game for the Gauchos to come out with a victory. If they can emerge with a win, they should feel good about themselves and where they stand in Big West.
February 20, 2008, 7:00 p.m. (PST)
TV: Channelsurfing.net says that they will have the game.
The Gauchos are on the home stretch of the Big West regular season play. UCSB has four Big West games (including tonight's match-up), plus a Bracket Buster game on Saturday against Utah St. These final four games will go a long way to determine how many games the Gauchos get to play before their inevitable semi-final elimination (that occurs every year).
Effective Field Goal Percentage
UCSB: 52.6%
Pacific: 55.9%
Believe it or not, but Pacific is the 6th rated team (kenpom.com) when it comes to effective field goal percentage. What does this mean? UCSB will have to do a stellar job on the offensive end. Last time we met up with the Tigers, the Gauchos let the Tigers have an efficient day, registering a 111.6.
UCSB, on the other hand, had an inefficient day, coming up with a 91.2. That's not going to cut it tonight. Pacific has lost two in a row and they had their worst defensive performance of the year on Saturday by letting CSUF register a 126.3. Two things can happen after a performance like that; continue with their third crappy defensive performance or turn the intensity and mess the Gauchos up. Let's hope it's #1 because I don't have much faith in a Bob run team to overcome #2.
Free Throw Rate
UCSB: 24.9
Pacific: 32.4
This is Pacific's second biggest strength, as they are 13th in Division I. UCSB is going to have to keep the Tigers off the line, while increasing their chances at the line. Last game, against Davis, the Gauchos did a great job getting to the line. They were unable to convert, but I think that's an anomaly.
Offensive Rebounding Percentage
UCSB: 29.0%
Pacific: 32.2%
UCSB has to keep the Tigers off the board and work on getting their own offensive boards. This is UCSB's biggest weakness. They are a bad offensive rebounding team and allow their opponents to get a lot of offensive boards. If they can channel their inner Dennis Rodman, the Gauchos have a good opportunity to pull off the victory.
Turnover Percentage
UCSB: 21.3%
Pacific: 23.6%
Finally, an area where the Gauchos have a statistical advantage! Neither the Gauchos nor the Tigers are particularly good at keeping their turnovers down. The flip side of this is the Gauchos 4th ranked defense in this category. If they can take advantage of the Tigers propensity to turn the ball over, they can push the ball and get some easy buckets.
Tonight, I want a Gaucho win (like everyone else). However, TGM is feeling very skeptical today because this is the same type of situation that Bob's teams in the past have let us down. The Gauchos have an opportunity to lay claim to sole possession of third place since I don't even know when. I don't want to get my hopes up if the let-down occurs. Therefore, there will be no prediction, but I think this will be a tough game for the Gauchos to come out with a victory. If they can emerge with a win, they should feel good about themselves and where they stand in Big West.
Monday, February 18, 2008
Mid-Major Top 25
This poll has turned into nothing more than a mockery in the eyes of TGM (can a blog have eyes?). It's such a silly poll that makes so little sense, I humor myself every Monday when it comes out. If nothing, it gives me a good laugh to see how ridiculous the poll is.
UCSB rose in the rankings to #17, up from #20. CSUN, the Big West first place squad, moved up six spots to #12. Fullerton finally moved into the rankings at #18, right behind the Gauchos. Pacific fell out of the MM25 this week.
Another week, another silly poll
Sunday, February 17, 2008
UCSB vs. Davis Recap
UCSB improved on to 8-4 in conference play with last night's 77-73 victory over the Aggies from Davis. Although this score was close, UCSB made this game much closer than it had to be. The Gauchos played some uncharacteristic ball last night by shooting poorly from the three point line (it's gonna happen sometimes) and some poor free throw shooting. Below is the game flow chart, courtesy of statsheet.com. From the looks of the chart, you'll notice that UCSB never relinquished their lead, which is nice to see from the team at this point in the season.
NOTE: I had to delete the Chart, as it was abnormally humongous and taking up a huge part of the site. You can head over to statsheet.com to check out the game flow chart.
From an efficiency standpoint, the Gauchos had their fourth most efficient game of the season with a rating of 118.2. Defensively, the Gauchos had their third worst performance with a rating of 112.0. While the offensive performance is clearly something to get excited about, the defensive performance should have you worried. I'm willing to chalk up the performance to one bad game, however, anytime you let an inefficient Davis rack up a 112.0 on you, you should be worried. For reference, it was Davis' sixth highest offensive output of the season, putting us up there with LaVerne (Who?), Presbyterian (Who?), Portland St. (Who?), Irvine (Who?, Just kidding) and Pacific.
Effective Field Goal Percentage
UCSB: 56.4%
Davis: 60.5%
Believe it or not, but this was our seventh highest effective field goal percentage performance of the season. This is cause for celebration because the Gauchos shot 4-15 from the arc. All this means that the Gauchos headed to the hoop and got them some two pointers like they were going out of style.
On the other hand, UCSB allowed Davis to get a higher percentage on the floor. This was likely the effect of the Aggies' three point shooting. All told, the Aggies shot 8-22 from beyond the arc.
Free Throw Rate
UCSB: 43.6
Davis: 55.8
This stat really surprised me for two reasons. First, it was nice to see the Gauchos get to the line 24 times. I'm sure they've been to the charity stripe that many times in a couple of games, but I can't recollect any games in recent memory. Secondly, I was surprised because the Gauchos shot an uncharacteristically poor percentage from the line, going 15-24. I consider this a one game aberration and believe they'll get back on track this week.
Offensive Rebounding Percentage
UCSB: 43.6%
Davis: 28.6%
For once, the tables are turned! Maybe Bob Williams lit a fire under their ass. Maybe the players drank some crunk juice. I don't know, but whatever the players did (and Davis didn't), the Gauchos need to keep up the good work.
I know Davis didn't have Michael Boone in the middle, but I still believe the Gauchos have the power to rebound like madmen. Most importantly, they kept Davis off the offensive glass.
The Gauchos gave themselves a lot of second chances in the game which is always nice to see. If anyone out there has a second chance point stat, I'd love to see it. You can leave me a comment.
Turnover Percentage
UCSB: 18.4%
Davis: 26.1%
Davis committed 17 turnovers, as compared to the Gauchos 12. Not exactly a whopper of a differential, but if you consider the fact that 12 of the Aggies 17 turnovers came from UCSB steals, you have to be impressed.
Our guards were a little high on the turnover side again, but the overall performance of the Gauchos was a pretty good game.
In wrapping up tonight's review, I wanted to point out a couple of other things. For the past couple weeks, we've been harping on the Gauchos inability to control the pace. The Davis game presented an interesting case study because they play at such a slow speed. While UCSB wasn't exactly playing lights out, they seemingly pushed the pace because they ended with a pace of 65. Not bad considering their last game was played at a 53.
One thing of concern is the lack of minutes that the bench is receiving. TGM has always been a big proponent of playing as many players as you can to create depth. It's our opinion that you do so by playing guys an average of about 10+ minutes a game. The Gauchos have been getting seven or eight guys 10+ minutes a game over the course of the season. The problem with this strategy will surface during the Big West Tournament (Mark my words). If the Gauchos end up playing back-t0-back-to-back games, they could experience some extreme fatigue. The other problem with this is foul trouble. When someone gets into foul trouble, who can Bob turn to? As stupid as it sounds, the players who get these minutes won't have the confidence and Bob won't have it in them. That's enough for tonight.
See you back on Monday.
NOTE: I had to delete the Chart, as it was abnormally humongous and taking up a huge part of the site. You can head over to statsheet.com to check out the game flow chart.
From an efficiency standpoint, the Gauchos had their fourth most efficient game of the season with a rating of 118.2. Defensively, the Gauchos had their third worst performance with a rating of 112.0. While the offensive performance is clearly something to get excited about, the defensive performance should have you worried. I'm willing to chalk up the performance to one bad game, however, anytime you let an inefficient Davis rack up a 112.0 on you, you should be worried. For reference, it was Davis' sixth highest offensive output of the season, putting us up there with LaVerne (Who?), Presbyterian (Who?), Portland St. (Who?), Irvine (Who?, Just kidding) and Pacific.
Effective Field Goal Percentage
UCSB: 56.4%
Davis: 60.5%
Believe it or not, but this was our seventh highest effective field goal percentage performance of the season. This is cause for celebration because the Gauchos shot 4-15 from the arc. All this means that the Gauchos headed to the hoop and got them some two pointers like they were going out of style.
On the other hand, UCSB allowed Davis to get a higher percentage on the floor. This was likely the effect of the Aggies' three point shooting. All told, the Aggies shot 8-22 from beyond the arc.
Free Throw Rate
UCSB: 43.6
Davis: 55.8
This stat really surprised me for two reasons. First, it was nice to see the Gauchos get to the line 24 times. I'm sure they've been to the charity stripe that many times in a couple of games, but I can't recollect any games in recent memory. Secondly, I was surprised because the Gauchos shot an uncharacteristically poor percentage from the line, going 15-24. I consider this a one game aberration and believe they'll get back on track this week.
Offensive Rebounding Percentage
UCSB: 43.6%
Davis: 28.6%
For once, the tables are turned! Maybe Bob Williams lit a fire under their ass. Maybe the players drank some crunk juice. I don't know, but whatever the players did (and Davis didn't), the Gauchos need to keep up the good work.
I know Davis didn't have Michael Boone in the middle, but I still believe the Gauchos have the power to rebound like madmen. Most importantly, they kept Davis off the offensive glass.
The Gauchos gave themselves a lot of second chances in the game which is always nice to see. If anyone out there has a second chance point stat, I'd love to see it. You can leave me a comment.
Turnover Percentage
UCSB: 18.4%
Davis: 26.1%
Davis committed 17 turnovers, as compared to the Gauchos 12. Not exactly a whopper of a differential, but if you consider the fact that 12 of the Aggies 17 turnovers came from UCSB steals, you have to be impressed.
Our guards were a little high on the turnover side again, but the overall performance of the Gauchos was a pretty good game.
In wrapping up tonight's review, I wanted to point out a couple of other things. For the past couple weeks, we've been harping on the Gauchos inability to control the pace. The Davis game presented an interesting case study because they play at such a slow speed. While UCSB wasn't exactly playing lights out, they seemingly pushed the pace because they ended with a pace of 65. Not bad considering their last game was played at a 53.
One thing of concern is the lack of minutes that the bench is receiving. TGM has always been a big proponent of playing as many players as you can to create depth. It's our opinion that you do so by playing guys an average of about 10+ minutes a game. The Gauchos have been getting seven or eight guys 10+ minutes a game over the course of the season. The problem with this strategy will surface during the Big West Tournament (Mark my words). If the Gauchos end up playing back-t0-back-to-back games, they could experience some extreme fatigue. The other problem with this is foul trouble. When someone gets into foul trouble, who can Bob turn to? As stupid as it sounds, the players who get these minutes won't have the confidence and Bob won't have it in them. That's enough for tonight.
See you back on Monday.
Friday, February 15, 2008
2/15/08: UCSB vs. UC-Davis
UCSB Gauchos (18-6, 7-4) at UC-Davis Aggies (8-16, 2-9)
February 16, 2008, 7:00 p.m. (PST)
Effective Field Goal Percentage
UCSB: 52.4%
Davis: 50.5%
Turnover Percentage
UCSB: 21.5%; opponent 26.9%
Davis: 24.8%; opponent 21.3%
Offensive Rebounding Percentage
UCSB: 28.5%
Davis: 24.9%
Free Throw Rate
UCSB: 24.8
Davis: 25.4
If you recall from a post earlier this week, Davis is going to try and walk the ball up the court if their opponent lets them. What does that mean tomorrow's game will bring? Davis and UCSB will be walking the ball up the court. Bob has shown an aversion to a fast pace when his opponent plays a slow pace (I really hope he surprises me one game). Look for the game to be closer to a 59/60 than to 69/70.
Defensively, UCSB has been a top 60 squad in almost all categories. They're ranked third in turnover percentage, while Davis is one of the worst Division I teams at handling the ball. Seriously, I don't know if you can find any more solid evidence to show Bob Williams that the Gauchos need to run in Saturday's game.
The one weakness is UCSB's game is Offensive Rebounding %. They ranked as the 301st team in Division I. This isn't a big deal in a game with a lot of possessions because, over the long run, the more efficient team will have the extra possessions to get a bigger lead. However, if the Gauchos hold true to form they could be in for a world of trouble tomorrow in a slow, close game. Their saving grace? Davis is the 333rd worst offensive rebounding team in the country.
The last match-up with Davis was a solid victory for the Gauchos and look for them to continue that dominance on Saturday night.
February 16, 2008, 7:00 p.m. (PST)
Effective Field Goal Percentage
UCSB: 52.4%
Davis: 50.5%
Turnover Percentage
UCSB: 21.5%; opponent 26.9%
Davis: 24.8%; opponent 21.3%
Offensive Rebounding Percentage
UCSB: 28.5%
Davis: 24.9%
Free Throw Rate
UCSB: 24.8
Davis: 25.4
If you recall from a post earlier this week, Davis is going to try and walk the ball up the court if their opponent lets them. What does that mean tomorrow's game will bring? Davis and UCSB will be walking the ball up the court. Bob has shown an aversion to a fast pace when his opponent plays a slow pace (I really hope he surprises me one game). Look for the game to be closer to a 59/60 than to 69/70.
Defensively, UCSB has been a top 60 squad in almost all categories. They're ranked third in turnover percentage, while Davis is one of the worst Division I teams at handling the ball. Seriously, I don't know if you can find any more solid evidence to show Bob Williams that the Gauchos need to run in Saturday's game.
The one weakness is UCSB's game is Offensive Rebounding %. They ranked as the 301st team in Division I. This isn't a big deal in a game with a lot of possessions because, over the long run, the more efficient team will have the extra possessions to get a bigger lead. However, if the Gauchos hold true to form they could be in for a world of trouble tomorrow in a slow, close game. Their saving grace? Davis is the 333rd worst offensive rebounding team in the country.
The last match-up with Davis was a solid victory for the Gauchos and look for them to continue that dominance on Saturday night.
UCSB vs. Cal Poly Recap
Last night, another unspectacular, but solid performance by the Gauchos in beating Cal Poly 60-47. The Gauchos played a pace of 63 and were less than 100 on the efficiency scale at 95.1. However, their defense is what carried the day, as they held Poly to a 74.5 efficiency rating.
We're going to change up the four factors we look at. Instead of looking at the straight stats, we're going to use the more mathematical versions from kenpom.com and from Basketball On Paper.
Effective Field Goal Percentage: This stat is just like regular free throw percentage, except it gives 50% more credit to a three point shot. The formula looks like this (.5*3 point made + Field Goals Made)/Field Goal Attempts. Obviously, the better you shoot the three (like UCSB), the higher your effective field goal percentage.
UCSB: 50
Cal Poly: 40.2
Cal Poly shot their characteristically crappy three point percentage, going 5-21. Almost half their shots were three pointers. From Bob William's post-game quotes it looks like he might have been a little too concerned about the Mustangs' three point ability. Hopefully he encouraged them to fire away.
Turnover Percentage: This is a pace-dependent measure of ball security. The formula is determined by Turnovers/Possessions.
UCSB: 17.4
Cal Poly: 38.0
From a turnover standpoint, this was our best performance of the year. The Gauchos were able to force the Mustangs into 24 turnovers. That is pretty amazing especially since 16 of them came off steals.
Offensive Rebounding Percentage: This is a measure of the possible rebounds that the offense is actually able to get. The formula looks like this Offensive Rebounds / (Offensive Rebounds + Defensive Rebounds of Opponent). This state tells us how efficient an offense is at pulling in their missed shots, hence, giving themselves second, third, etc... chance opportunities.
UCSB: 9.3%
Cal Poly: 42.6%
No surprise here folks. UCSB doesn't have the big men who want to bang down low. We consistently get out-rebounded by our opponent almost every game. On the other hand, when you're shooting so many threes (and why not? They're making a high percentage), your rebounders are out on the perimeter.
Regardless, we can all make excuses (you know the old saying, an excuse is like an asshole, everyone has one and they all stink), but this was still a very poor performance. The Gauchos had 3 offensive rebounds to Cal Poly's 15. This game would have been even more of a blowout had the Gauchos gathered a few more offensive or defensive rebounds.
Free Throw Rate: This stat captures a team's ability to score from the free throw line. It is determined by dividing Free Throws Made by Field Goal Attempts.
UCSB: 31.9
Cal Poly: 37.0
This is one beef that I suppose I'll always have with the Gaucho Coaches. They don't get to the line nearly enough. UCSB got to the line only 15 times. Granted, they made 13 of those shots. However, they need to take the ball to the basket on a regular basis if they aren't shooting the three.
We're going to change up the four factors we look at. Instead of looking at the straight stats, we're going to use the more mathematical versions from kenpom.com and from Basketball On Paper.
Effective Field Goal Percentage: This stat is just like regular free throw percentage, except it gives 50% more credit to a three point shot. The formula looks like this (.5*3 point made + Field Goals Made)/Field Goal Attempts. Obviously, the better you shoot the three (like UCSB), the higher your effective field goal percentage.
UCSB: 50
Cal Poly: 40.2
Cal Poly shot their characteristically crappy three point percentage, going 5-21. Almost half their shots were three pointers. From Bob William's post-game quotes it looks like he might have been a little too concerned about the Mustangs' three point ability. Hopefully he encouraged them to fire away.
Turnover Percentage: This is a pace-dependent measure of ball security. The formula is determined by Turnovers/Possessions.
UCSB: 17.4
Cal Poly: 38.0
From a turnover standpoint, this was our best performance of the year. The Gauchos were able to force the Mustangs into 24 turnovers. That is pretty amazing especially since 16 of them came off steals.
Offensive Rebounding Percentage: This is a measure of the possible rebounds that the offense is actually able to get. The formula looks like this Offensive Rebounds / (Offensive Rebounds + Defensive Rebounds of Opponent). This state tells us how efficient an offense is at pulling in their missed shots, hence, giving themselves second, third, etc... chance opportunities.
UCSB: 9.3%
Cal Poly: 42.6%
No surprise here folks. UCSB doesn't have the big men who want to bang down low. We consistently get out-rebounded by our opponent almost every game. On the other hand, when you're shooting so many threes (and why not? They're making a high percentage), your rebounders are out on the perimeter.
Regardless, we can all make excuses (you know the old saying, an excuse is like an asshole, everyone has one and they all stink), but this was still a very poor performance. The Gauchos had 3 offensive rebounds to Cal Poly's 15. This game would have been even more of a blowout had the Gauchos gathered a few more offensive or defensive rebounds.
Free Throw Rate: This stat captures a team's ability to score from the free throw line. It is determined by dividing Free Throws Made by Field Goal Attempts.
UCSB: 31.9
Cal Poly: 37.0
This is one beef that I suppose I'll always have with the Gaucho Coaches. They don't get to the line nearly enough. UCSB got to the line only 15 times. Granted, they made 13 of those shots. However, they need to take the ball to the basket on a regular basis if they aren't shooting the three.
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