Winning the Big West

After posting my rant on how the Gauchos must NOT choke tomorrow because I want them to finish as regular season champs, I decided to find out what that means for the Gauchos. In other words, does winning the Big West regular season title translate favorably to an NCAA Tournament berth (i.e. their chances of winning of the Conference Tournament). Below are the results of my findings, courtesy of statsheet.com. If the tournament champ was not the regular season champ, the tournament champs regular season rank is in the parenthesis.

2006-2007
Regular Season Champ: Long Beach State
Tournament Champ: Long Beach State

2005-2006
Regular Season Champ: Pacific
Tournament Champ: Pacific

2004-2005
Regular Season Champ: Pacific
Tournament Champ: Utah State (2)

2003-2004
Regular Season Champ: Utah State, Pacific
Tournament Champ: Pacific

2002-2003
Regular Season Champ: UCSB
Tournament Champ: Utah State (3)

2001-2002
Regular Season Champ: Utah State, Irvine
Tournament Champ: UCSB (three-way tie for 3rd)

2000-2001
Regular Season Champ: Irvine
Tournament Champ: Utah State (2)

1999-2000
Regular Season Champ: Utah State
Tournament Champ: Utah State

1998-1999
Regular Season Champ: Boise State, New Mexico State, UCSB
Tournament Champ: New Mexico State

1997-1998
Regular Season Champ: Pacific
Tournament Champ: Utah State (2)

1996-1997
Regular Season Champ: Pacific, Utah State, Nevada
Tournament Champ: Pacific

In 6 out of the 11 years used in the "study," the regular season champ took the automatic bid. Those other 5 years, it was either a #2 or #3 seed which took the auto bid. While this is by no means scientific, the probabilities slightly favor the #1 seed, and it's not by much.

One interesting thing to note is that in the years Utah State took the tournament berth (in which they weren't the #1 seed), they had a better overall record than the regular season champ (despite a worse conference record). We'll see if that bodes well for UCSB, who have the best overall record in the Big West.

Of all the possible outcomes from the last two games, UCSB stands a good chance of getting the #1, #2 or #3 seed. Using the evidence from above, there is nothing to suggest that UCSB doesn't have a legitimate chance at winning the Conference Tournament.