Oxford, MS 5:00 pm (PST)
ESPNU
Tonight, the Gauchos take on the Ole' Miss Runnin' Rebels (land of Eli and Archie) in their first round match-up of the NIT (the Gauchos "reward" for choking in Anaheim). It's going to be a tough match-up for the boys of UCSB. The Rebels average about 6-8 across their front line and outweigh them by a lot.
Ole' Miss plays at a pace of about 70 possessions per game, compared to UCSB's 66. While this seems insignificant at face value, remember that the Gauchos play the pace their opponent tells them to play (hopefully that's the only thing they allow their opponent to do). In this case, the Rebels are extremely effective at keeping the pace within a range they want. Almost all of their games have been played in the high 60s to mid 70s. Look for the Gauchos to play faster than they're used to.
From an efficiency standpoint, the Rebels kill UCSB with an adjusted rating of 114.3. UCSB's adjusted rating (Can't believe I didn't notice this before) is a paltry 99.7. Anything below 100 sucks. The good news is that of all the times that Mississippi has been held under an efficiency rating of 100, they've lost all but one of those games. The bad news is that they've been held under 100 only 6 times (out of 31 games).
Let's get onto what could be the last analysis of the season.
Effective Field Goal %
UCSB: 52.2%
Miss: 51.5%
UCSB needs to hit their shots, especially their 3 point shots in this game because the Rebels have some beef on a front line that shoots over 50% from inside the arc. That number only figures to increase when the Rebels face the Gauchos because of their weak inside presence.
Free Throw Rate
UCSB: 26.0
Miss: 19.2
This is about UCSB's only true advantage in this game and it hinges on a big IF. IF the Gauchos don't choke at the line like they did in Anaheim, this could keep them in the game. In each televised game they've played, the Gauchos have had a less than average free throw shooting performance. As homerish as I am, that doesn't bode well for the Gauchos.
Offensive Rebounding %
UCSB: 28.4%
Miss: 39.3%
Oh lordy. This is going to be a problem. To summarize one USCB message board poster after this most recent loss to UCI, these guys better come out "breathing fire" if they stand a chance. Seriously, our rebounding percentage puts at 300th of 314 DI teams. That's bad. UCSB needs to man up, box up and prevent Mississippi from getting any offensive rebounds. They're big and they're beefy, but if you go in their pissed off, you can outrebound even the biggest guy on the block.
Turnover Percentage
UCSB: 21.1%
Miss: 18.0%
Mississippi does a great job of protecting the ball. This doesn't mean that UCSB can't get them to turn it over, all it means is that it's going to be harder. Play some pressure defense in the form of a press and get a few turnovers.
UCSB's mission is difficult, but it can be done. Let's go Gauchos. I'll be watching. Do us proud.
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