February 20, 2008, 7:00 p.m. (PST)
TV: Channelsurfing.net says that they will have the game.
The Gauchos are on the home stretch of the Big West regular season play. UCSB has four Big West games (including tonight's match-up), plus a Bracket Buster game on Saturday against Utah St. These final four games will go a long way to determine how many games the Gauchos get to play before their inevitable semi-final elimination (that occurs every year).
Effective Field Goal Percentage
UCSB: 52.6%
Pacific: 55.9%
Believe it or not, but Pacific is the 6th rated team (kenpom.com) when it comes to effective field goal percentage. What does this mean? UCSB will have to do a stellar job on the offensive end. Last time we met up with the Tigers, the Gauchos let the Tigers have an efficient day, registering a 111.6.
UCSB, on the other hand, had an inefficient day, coming up with a 91.2. That's not going to cut it tonight. Pacific has lost two in a row and they had their worst defensive performance of the year on Saturday by letting CSUF register a 126.3. Two things can happen after a performance like that; continue with their third crappy defensive performance or turn the intensity and mess the Gauchos up. Let's hope it's #1 because I don't have much faith in a Bob run team to overcome #2.
Free Throw Rate
UCSB: 24.9
Pacific: 32.4
This is Pacific's second biggest strength, as they are 13th in Division I. UCSB is going to have to keep the Tigers off the line, while increasing their chances at the line. Last game, against Davis, the Gauchos did a great job getting to the line. They were unable to convert, but I think that's an anomaly.
Offensive Rebounding Percentage
UCSB: 29.0%
Pacific: 32.2%
UCSB has to keep the Tigers off the board and work on getting their own offensive boards. This is UCSB's biggest weakness. They are a bad offensive rebounding team and allow their opponents to get a lot of offensive boards. If they can channel their inner Dennis Rodman, the Gauchos have a good opportunity to pull off the victory.
Turnover Percentage
UCSB: 21.3%
Pacific: 23.6%
Finally, an area where the Gauchos have a statistical advantage! Neither the Gauchos nor the Tigers are particularly good at keeping their turnovers down. The flip side of this is the Gauchos 4th ranked defense in this category. If they can take advantage of the Tigers propensity to turn the ball over, they can push the ball and get some easy buckets.
Tonight, I want a Gaucho win (like everyone else). However, TGM is feeling very skeptical today because this is the same type of situation that Bob's teams in the past have let us down. The Gauchos have an opportunity to lay claim to sole possession of third place since I don't even know when. I don't want to get my hopes up if the let-down occurs. Therefore, there will be no prediction, but I think this will be a tough game for the Gauchos to come out with a victory. If they can emerge with a win, they should feel good about themselves and where they stand in Big West.
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