Shot Selection

This morning, on basketballprospectus.com, I came across an interesting article on shot selection from Ken Pomeroy. You can find the link below.

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=191


Here is a look at the chart they came up with. It's really fuzzy, but click on the link to see the real deal. The red line is the shots per game on average from each game. The x-axis represents the distance from the hoop. The blue line represents the percentage each shot is made from each distance.

As Ken Pomeroy points out, coaches guarding the three point line religiously and forcing players to shoot the mid-range is likely a very good strategy. It forces players to shoot in an area they aren't all that comfortable with.

For my three loyal readers, you know that I'm an advocate that the Gauchos should allow the horrible three point shooting teams they play to huck up the three with reckless abandon. However, after reading Ken Pomeroy's piece and seeing the data, TGM is in the process of reconsidering that position.

The problem with the Gauchos, though, isn't their defense. In fact, their defense has a 26.9% turnover percentage, which is phenomenal. According to kenpom.com, that puts the Gauchos at #2 in the nation. Turnover percentage equalizes teams who play faster pace with slower paces. As a result, it's an objective measure that determines how good you really are on defense.

So, while this chart is awesome, the problem that needs to be fixed is the Gauchos offense. How do we do that? Well, my suggestion is to go back through this blog and see what you think. Hint: it involves shooting the three, driving to the basket for close range shots and getting to the free throw line.