Friday, February 15, 2008

UCSB vs. Cal Poly Recap

Last night, another unspectacular, but solid performance by the Gauchos in beating Cal Poly 60-47. The Gauchos played a pace of 63 and were less than 100 on the efficiency scale at 95.1. However, their defense is what carried the day, as they held Poly to a 74.5 efficiency rating.

We're going to change up the four factors we look at. Instead of looking at the straight stats, we're going to use the more mathematical versions from kenpom.com and from Basketball On Paper.

Effective Field Goal Percentage: This stat is just like regular free throw percentage, except it gives 50% more credit to a three point shot. The formula looks like this (.5*3 point made + Field Goals Made)/Field Goal Attempts. Obviously, the better you shoot the three (like UCSB), the higher your effective field goal percentage.

UCSB: 50
Cal Poly: 40.2

Cal Poly shot their characteristically crappy three point percentage, going 5-21. Almost half their shots were three pointers. From Bob William's post-game quotes it looks like he might have been a little too concerned about the Mustangs' three point ability. Hopefully he encouraged them to fire away.

Turnover Percentage: This is a pace-dependent measure of ball security. The formula is determined by Turnovers/Possessions.

UCSB: 17.4
Cal Poly: 38.0

From a turnover standpoint, this was our best performance of the year. The Gauchos were able to force the Mustangs into 24 turnovers. That is pretty amazing especially since 16 of them came off steals.

Offensive Rebounding Percentage: This is a measure of the possible rebounds that the offense is actually able to get. The formula looks like this Offensive Rebounds / (Offensive Rebounds + Defensive Rebounds of Opponent). This state tells us how efficient an offense is at pulling in their missed shots, hence, giving themselves second, third, etc... chance opportunities.

UCSB: 9.3%
Cal Poly: 42.6%

No surprise here folks. UCSB doesn't have the big men who want to bang down low. We consistently get out-rebounded by our opponent almost every game. On the other hand, when you're shooting so many threes (and why not? They're making a high percentage), your rebounders are out on the perimeter.

Regardless, we can all make excuses (you know the old saying, an excuse is like an asshole, everyone has one and they all stink), but this was still a very poor performance. The Gauchos had 3 offensive rebounds to Cal Poly's 15. This game would have been even more of a blowout had the Gauchos gathered a few more offensive or defensive rebounds.

Free Throw Rate: This stat captures a team's ability to score from the free throw line. It is determined by dividing Free Throws Made by Field Goal Attempts.

UCSB: 31.9
Cal Poly: 37.0

This is one beef that I suppose I'll always have with the Gaucho Coaches. They don't get to the line nearly enough. UCSB got to the line only 15 times. Granted, they made 13 of those shots. However, they need to take the ball to the basket on a regular basis if they aren't shooting the three.

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