March 14, 2008 5:30 p.m. (PST)
Whether you fear the Anteaters or not, today is the day of reckoning for the Gauchos. They face the only dragon (or anteater) they've yet to slay this season. UCI beat the Gauchos on January 10, 66-63. The Anteaters beat the Gauchos again, on February 9, 65-59.
This is the ultimate test for the Gauchos. If they want to get into the NCAA Tournament, their mission is simple: win two games and you're in. Therefore, we see how bad the Gauchos want it tonight. Second, we can see if Bob Williams has learned anything from this season's two losses to UCI. Specifically, Bob Williams has allowed his team to play right into the hands of UCI by playing the sloooooowest pace (the pace the Anteaters want).
TGM's recipe for sucess is simple. Bob, you need to run the Anteaters out of the gym. I don't care if you're not comfortable with that style. The Gauchos are better suited for that style than the Anteaters.
Why do we make said recommendation? Take a look at the Game Flo, courtesy of midmajority.com, from UCI's match-up with Pacific last night. If you looked at that chart, you'll notice that each half UCI started out very hot and increased their margin of victory. However, what you'll also notice is that the Anteaters flattened out substantially as each half wore on. When a team flattens out like that at the end of each half, I'd say that's a pretty clear indication they were getting tired.
Another reason for the recommendation? UCSB needs to show the Anteaters that the Gauchos will be controlling tonight's game. Mike Tyson once said, "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face." Never has something so complex been said so simply. We know what Irvine's plan is. They want to walk the ball up the court. Especially since they've played three games in three days. Forcing them to run is the equivalent of punching them in the face. Surely, UCI's coaches know that they dictated the tempo the last two games. It would be foolish to think that they don't believe they can't control the pace this time around. Therefore, the Gauchos need to induce maximum confusion by forcing the tempo. Press, push the ball on offense, etc...
An additional benefit of not letting them walk up the court is that the Anteaters are going to be tired, don't let them regain their energy. Please watch the youtube clip (specifically, the energy bar) to understand what I mean.
Clearly, Alan Beast and Tony Rhodes want to continue punching their guy when his energy is at his lowest. He can't defend himself as well and you're more likely to knock his ass out. If you punch him once, let him recoup, it's like you never punched him at all.
The last benefit of the recommendation is completely psychological. Irvine has beaten the Gauchos twice this season. If you let them stay in the game early, Bob, UCI will get this little thing called confidence. They will believe that they can hang with your team, Bob. The more hope you give them, the less their lack of energy counts. Show them that they can't play with their big bro. Have no mercy.
Now, onto the stats.
Effective Field Goal %
UCSB: 52.7%
UCI: 51.9%
We've already chronicled to death the fact that Irvine wants to play slow. IF UCSB allows UCI to dictate the pace (God help them), they need to make their three point shots to extend the defense. This will open up the post.
Tonight, the post men will be key. Not only do they need to keep Fells in check. But Devine, Elliot and Nedim (no 3's Nedim) need to be a three man wrecking crew. Sprinkle a little Gibb in there and you can make that a 4 man crew.
The key is controlling the pace. Don't play slow. Make UCI play fast. Put the fear into them. They don't want to run, so we want them to run. Make it happen, Bob.
Free Throw Rate
UCSB: 25.7
UCI: 24.7
Bottom line to this: Don't send them to the free throw line. If you do, make sure you get there more than they do. UCI is a great free throw shooting team. They're going to make you pay if you send them to the line. Fouling them in the act = bad idea.
The first game, we did a good job, we sent them to the line 10 times, we went 11. The second game, not so good. They got to the line 22 times, we got to the line 11 times. That very well could have been the game right there, considering they made 8 more free throws than us. Of course, six of those free throws came at the end of the game when we started intentionally fouling.
Offensive Rebounding %
UCSB: 28.8%
UCI: 26.4%
We're not very good here. Just don't give them second chance shots. The last couple times we've match-up, the offensive rebounds have been pretty close. However, defensively, they've cleaned up the glass compared to us.
Turnover Rate
UCSB: 21.3%
UCI: 19.0%
UCSB has one of the highest defensive turnover percentages. To maximize this, push the ball up the court. UCI doesn't turn it over much because they walk the ball up the court. When they are doing this, it's fairly difficult to make a turnover. Force them into playing faster and you might force a couple extra turnovers.
That's it folks. Like all of you, I'm hoping for the Gauchos to pull it off tonight. If they can beat the Anteaters, then it's one more game and the Gauchos will have made the tournament, so we can start doing this:
No comments:
Post a Comment