Sunday, March 9, 2008

UCSB at LBSU Recap

Congratulations to the Gauchos who pulled off a victory yesterday afternoon against the 49ers to get themselves the #1 seed headed into the Big West Tournament. The Gauchos new mission: win two games and you get an NCAA Tournament berth.

Now, let's talk about yesterday's game. It was a weird game indeed, especially the last 5 seconds of overtime. First, LBSU fouls Chris Devine with less than half a second left in the first overtime. Devine misses his first free throw. Then, in an attempt to ice Devine, Dan Munson, LBSU's coach calls a timeout. The problem? He doesn't have any timeouts left. That inexplicable gaffe allowed the Gauchos to get two more free throws courtesy of the technical foul.

The game was played at a pace of 59, which is surprising because LBSU isn't one of the slower teams in the Big West. Offensively, the Gauchos scored a 105.4 on the efficiency meter and allowed LBSU to register a 102.4. Although their defense was it's typical turnover causing machine, the Gauchos allowed LBSU to stay in the game (although I think it was more due to really good streaky shooting by one Donovan Morris.

Effective Field Goal Percentage
UCSB: 57.8%
LBSU: 54.4%

This is where the Gauchos allowed the 49ers to stay in the game. The Gauchos had a great shooting day and so did the 49ers. Unfortunately, the Gauchos pulled it off due to, basically, one more three pointer. This game was very evenly matched, from the Free Throws to the three point shooting. Not much to say except LBSU matched us with every shot except for a couple.

Offensive Rebounding Percentage
UCSB: 27.7%
LBSU: 22.6%

Another good performance on the offensive glass by UCSB. Although they only pulled down 6 offensive boards, it was still almost a 30% of the potential offensive boards they could get. The Gauchos have been improving in this area lately and TGM likes what he sees. Again, Devine and Nedim had solid rebounding games. Keep this up during Big West fellas.

Free Throw Rate
UCSB: 53.3
LBSU: 55.6

The Gauchos went 18-24, the 49ers 19-25. Good job getting to the line and making your shots, gentlemen. The only complaint was we need to attack the basket at a greater frequency and get to the foul line even more. Still, if you would have told me I'd be complaining about 24 attempts a couple of weeks ago, I would have said you're crazy. Such is the life of a fan.

Turnover Percentage
UCSB: 27.1%
LBSU: 21.1%

This is the area that really allowed LBSU to stay in the game. LBSU had 16 turnovers, the Gauchos had 18. This was actually one of the highest turnover percentage games that the Gauchos had all season. So, be thankful the Gauchos were able to pull out the victory. They still did a good job on the defensive end by forcing LBSU into 16 turnovers.

As you can see, this game was a lot closer than it probably should have been. In fact, I think it's been the most even game all season that I've seen. However, the impressive thing is that the Gauchos pulled off the victory when they could have folded. Now, it's onto a week of waiting to find out the fate of the Gauchos. Anything less than a NCAA Tournament berth should be considered a disappointment. TGM has faith in the Gauchos and likes their chances to advance.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I like the spirit of not accepting defeat, but realism suggests that qualifying a non-NCAA appearance as a failure is unfair.

Let's say we have a 70 percent chance of winning the first game (that's likely pushing it, but there are some scenariios with some early upsets where we face a tired team).

If we then face a CS Northridge or CS Fullerton in the Finals, perhaps we would be a mild favorite. Let's say 60%.

Together that represents a 42% chance to advance, even though we are the best team out there. We just aren't THAT much better than the other teams out there. We aren't Gonzaga or UNLV back in the hey day.

Post-season tournaments in the BW aren't designed for the best team to win, they are design to stimulate interest towards the end of the BW main schedule. I get that, and I like the double-bye system, but we just aren't a favorite to advance.

That said, I'll be there on Friday rooting them on and I will be disappointed if we don't win through - I'm just tempering my expectations. Win the first game and I'll start getting excited.