3/6/08: UCSB at CSUN

UCSB Gauchos (20-7, 10-4) at Cal State Northridge Matadors (18-8, 11-3)
March 6, 2008, 7:00 pm (PST)



TV: Channelsurfing.net says they will have the game tonight.

Here is the preview from Basketball Prospectus.com which has this as one of their games of the night.

For those of you who missed yesterday's post, here's the nitty gritty. UCSB is in firm control of their destiny. If they win these next two games, the Gauchos take possession of the #1 seed in Big West Tournament play. Lose one game and it's up to the basketball gods to decide what seed the Gauchos receive.

Last time the Gauchos and Matadors met up, the Matadors came away with a close victory (88-84) courtesy of Deon Tresvant's hot hand. Tonight, let's hope the outcome turns out different. The Matadors were slightly better in most of the categories we care about (last match-up).

As everyone is well aware of by this point, UCSB will copy the pace their opponent wants to play. CSUN plays at a pace of 75.0 possessions per game and on their January 5 match-up, the two teams played to a pace of 78. From an efficiency standpoint, UCSB is sitting right around 103 per game, while CSUN is about even with the Gauchos. Of CSUN's 5 slowest paced games, CSUN has lost 4 of them. Maybe the Gauchos should consider slow playing the Matadors tonight.

CSUN is a very good team defensively, which is what makes them so dangerous. They play a fast pace with good defense. See below for the preview, but that combination always makes for a dangerous match-up for anyone.

Let's look at how they match up.

Effective Field Goal Percentage
UCSB: 52.1%
CSUN: 51.7%

UCSB clearly gets their edge from their three point shooting. If those shots fall, the Gauchos stand a good chance at winning tonight.

Turnover Percentage
UCSB: 21.1% (offense)
CSUN: 21.4% (offense)

Defensively is where this battle will be won. CSUN is the 14th rated team by Turnover Percentage, while UCSB is 3rd in the country. The team that is able to hold onto the ball (Yes, Nedim, that includes you) will stand a clear advantage as both teams use turnovers to their benefit.

Offensive Rebounding Percentage
UCSB: 28.6%
CSUN: 33.2%

No surprise here as the Gauchos are one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the country. They're also horrible on the defensive end, which means that CSUN will have plenty of opportunities unless someone mans up tonight and locks down the defensive glass. If they don't, this game could get ugly. If they do lock the glass down, this could give the Gauchos the edge they need.

Free Throw Rate
UCSB: 24.5
CSUN: 23.4

For being the 10th best free throw shooting team in the country, UCSB does not do a good job of getting to the line. They are in the lower echelon of the nation in this category and they're sending their opponent to the line a lot (consequence of their defense). All this means the Gauchos better hit their free throws when they get there. Getting to the line will help the Gauchos in a couple of ways tonight. First, the game will be played at a quick pace (most likely) and UCSB probably doesn't have the depth to compete. Getting to the line will give their teammates a breather. Second, it will slow the game down and allow the Gauchos to set up the defense they want. Third, it will give them a moment to clear their minds from the rapid pace of the game and get some instructions from the bench (on second thought, maybe #3 isn't a good idea).


With that being said, TGM wants the Gauchos to take the Matadors down. This game will be close, no doubt, but TGM has faith in the Gauchos. Lots of fans are planning on making the trek. This could turn the Matadome into a virtual Thunderdome. TGM isn't in the prediction business, but I belive the Gauchos can pull it off. Good luck, and god speed men!