Saturday, March 29, 2008

Billy Packer Sucks

Since UCSB's season is over, I haven't had much to write about. Yesterday that changed. While listening to the Stanford-Texas game, I was forced to listen to Billy Packer. After listening to Packer I'm pretty sure that I would rather hit myself with a hammer than listen to Packer.

I've always felt this way, but yesterday's performance by Mr. Packer threw lighter fluid and a match onto the pile of logs accumulating in my mind.

In Packer's opinion, everything (and I mean everything) DJ Augustin did drew incredible amounts of praise from Packer. Everything from jump shots to a pass to a wide open teammate were all "great plays." It was so ridiculous. Almost as if he wants to make out with Augustin. DJ is a phenomenal player, no doubt. However, when you're complimenting a point guard for passing to the open man, that's a bit silly. Isn't that what a point guard is supposed to do?

On the other hand, Stanford drew nothing but criticism from Packer. They did nothing right in his eyes. In fact, Packer's distaste for all things Stanford gave way to the funniest non-comment of the game. Early in the second half, Taj Finger drove to the basket and drew a foul call. It was a nice drive by Finger and a good job of getting to the line. After Jim Nantz was done with the play-by-play there was awkward silence for the next minute or so while Finger shot the free throw. Either Packer didn't want to give credit for getting to the line or he just couldn't think of any negative spin.

With that being said, I really want Packer to retire or get fired. Unfortunately, just like Bob Williams, Billy Packer will be back next year and the year after that.

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Looking Back at the Schedule

It's not secret that the Gauchos played an extremely strong weak out-of-conference schedule. Combine that with the mighty mighty Big West strength and you have one hell of a whopper schedule. Add to that a few losses to teams that the Gauchos have all no business losing to and you've got no chance at an at-large bid.

With that being said, I got to thinking in my post-March Madness hangover (can't wait for Thursday) about the Gauchos out-of-conference schedule. Yes, it was soft. However, the Gauchos only two out-of-conference losses (except Utah State and Mississippi) during the true OOC "season" came at the hands of Stanford (a Brook Lopez-less Stanford) and UNC.

Considering that these are two of the Sweet 16 contestants, they are looking like much better losses at this point in the season. To digress for a moment - one thing the readers don't know about me is that I grew up near the Stanford campus, went to their games and watched them as a kid so I consider myself a Stanford fan, as well. I was at the Anaheim venue on both Thursday and Saturday and Stanford looks very dominant.

In fact, in my tournament bracket, I have Stanford beating Texas and making it to the Final Four. Unfortunately, I have UNC losing to Tennessee in the Elite 8. If my bracket holds up, as my extremely accurate picks are known to, UCSB will have lost to two of the final 8 teams left in the country.

By the way, if Tyler Hansbrough stays at UNC for his senior year, is he not going to eat any UCSB post player alive? Hope Bob Williams brings the exact same complete opposite philosophy/strategy that caused him to lose to Irvine 3 times in a season. It's just not the same as Stanford losing to UCLA (one by a very bad call) three times in a season.

With that, I'm out.

Check back for updates. I'm planning on reviewing the season, position by position after the tournament is over.




Monday, March 24, 2008

Academics and Basketball Success

One of the things that I meant to study, although not as comprehensive as this, was the effect that having an NCAA Tournament Men's Basketball team would effect the admissions and applicants at UCSB.

When I was younger, I remember hearing about the phenomenon that Michael Vick had created for the Virginia Tech football team. Because of Vick, I remember hearing that Virginia Tech had seen a large increase in the number of applicants. Additionally, I remember the Dean being quoted in the article about how the VT student body used to wear the logos of different schools around campus, but that since Vick, they only wear VT gear.

I've always felt that UCSB should put some more effort into having a men's basketball team that dominates the Big West, much like the women's team already does. One of the benefits is that the school should get increased exposure from sporting events on television. This should lead to a higher number of applicants which leads to more money.

The study seems to prove what I've long suspected:

  • All 64 schools in the NCAA basketball tournament had a 1 percent increase in applicants each year.
  • Sweet Sixteen schools had a 3 percent application increase.
How do we get this party started? Fire Bob Williams and his decade-long track record of mediocrity.

Of course, the people with their heads up their asses naysayers love to point out that UCSB isn't in the Big East and that Bob is just a great coach. Logic doesn't work with these folks. However, I would point to Gonzaga and other mid-major schools (Xavier, etc...) with good basketball programs and I would bet that their schools experienced a similar effect. As to the Bob argument, I ask this: if you worked for the same company 10 years in a row and your department had the same mediocre numbers year after year and you failed to gain any ground on your competitor would your company keep you around? If they did, your company probably won't be around much longer, but you should keep that job because they're rewarding mediocrity. Why should basketball coaching be the same? I expect a return on my tax dollars and Bob doesn't deliver. Enough of the rant for today, enjoy the study.

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

NIT 1st Round Game: UCSB at Ole' Miss

UCSB Gauchos (22-8, 12-4) at University of Mississippi Runnin' Rebels (21-10, 7-9)
Oxford, MS 5:00 pm (PST)
ESPNU



Tonight, the Gauchos take on the Ole' Miss Runnin' Rebels (land of Eli and Archie) in their first round match-up of the NIT (the Gauchos "reward" for choking in Anaheim). It's going to be a tough match-up for the boys of UCSB. The Rebels average about 6-8 across their front line and outweigh them by a lot.

Ole' Miss plays at a pace of about 70 possessions per game, compared to UCSB's 66. While this seems insignificant at face value, remember that the Gauchos play the pace their opponent tells them to play (hopefully that's the only thing they allow their opponent to do). In this case, the Rebels are extremely effective at keeping the pace within a range they want. Almost all of their games have been played in the high 60s to mid 70s. Look for the Gauchos to play faster than they're used to.

From an efficiency standpoint, the Rebels kill UCSB with an adjusted rating of 114.3. UCSB's adjusted rating (Can't believe I didn't notice this before) is a paltry 99.7. Anything below 100 sucks. The good news is that of all the times that Mississippi has been held under an efficiency rating of 100, they've lost all but one of those games. The bad news is that they've been held under 100 only 6 times (out of 31 games).

Let's get onto what could be the last analysis of the season.

Effective Field Goal %
UCSB: 52.2%
Miss: 51.5%

UCSB needs to hit their shots, especially their 3 point shots in this game because the Rebels have some beef on a front line that shoots over 50% from inside the arc. That number only figures to increase when the Rebels face the Gauchos because of their weak inside presence.

Free Throw Rate
UCSB: 26.0
Miss: 19.2

This is about UCSB's only true advantage in this game and it hinges on a big IF. IF the Gauchos don't choke at the line like they did in Anaheim, this could keep them in the game. In each televised game they've played, the Gauchos have had a less than average free throw shooting performance. As homerish as I am, that doesn't bode well for the Gauchos.

Offensive Rebounding %
UCSB: 28.4%
Miss: 39.3%

Oh lordy. This is going to be a problem. To summarize one USCB message board poster after this most recent loss to UCI, these guys better come out "breathing fire" if they stand a chance. Seriously, our rebounding percentage puts at 300th of 314 DI teams. That's bad. UCSB needs to man up, box up and prevent Mississippi from getting any offensive rebounds. They're big and they're beefy, but if you go in their pissed off, you can outrebound even the biggest guy on the block.

Turnover Percentage
UCSB: 21.1%
Miss: 18.0%

Mississippi does a great job of protecting the ball. This doesn't mean that UCSB can't get them to turn it over, all it means is that it's going to be harder. Play some pressure defense in the form of a press and get a few turnovers.

UCSB's mission is difficult, but it can be done. Let's go Gauchos. I'll be watching. Do us proud.

Sunday, March 16, 2008

Big West Semifinal Recap: UCSB vs. UCI

NIT, here we come! Hard to get excited for that, I know. After taking in a day to soak in the fact that the Gauchos lost (for the third time) to UCI, I finally brought myself to write a little game analysis.

While I've had (and still do) problems with Bob Williams, the blame for the loss falls solely on the players, in my opinion. Not only did the team shoot 16-29 from the free throw line, they also managed to miss at least 6 layups. When you lost by 5 points, and you leave that many points on the table, it's the players fault. The players played tight and looked like they were indifferent to whether they won the game.

Sure, Bob should have laid into them with some intensity and fire. What disappointed me most from a coaching standpoint was Bob's willingness to stick with the same strategy that led UCSB to two losses against UCI. The Gauchos pushed the ball up the court when they got a defensive rebound, but then they allowed UCI to set up their defense while UCSB ran a half court set. That's exactly what UCI wanted to do and you played right into their hands Bob. If you're going into a fight with a guy who wants to stand up and box with you, but your strength is taking the fight to the ground and winning by submission, you don't stand up and box with the guy, you get his ass on the ground and you pound him until he submits.

Unfortunately, the Gauchos, who should have been running and full court pressing the entire time (their strengths) submitted to the will of UCI and did whatever they wanted.

UCSB had one of their best defensive performances of the year against Irvine, holding them to a 84.5 efficiency rating. However, that doesn't do you any good when you register a 76.8 on the efficiency scale (for the record, that is the second worst performance of the season). The Gauchos upped the pace slightly this game, running the game at a 65, but that was too close to UCI's comfort range.

On another note, everytime I watch Brett Lauer I get a good laugh. Not only does he look like one of the shortest players on the court (maybe 5'10" with shoes on), but his player page says that he is 6'1". I don't know why, but I find his dramatic height exaggeration hilarious.

Effective Field Goal Percentage
UCSB: 36.3%
UCI: 50%

The Gauchos shot horribly from the floor. 15-47 overall and 4-17 from the three. Alex Harris, Ivan Elliot and James Powell stunk up the joint going 6-27. That's horrible. Combine that with the missed layups and you've got a problem.

With 5 minutes left in the first half, the Gauchos had only scored 9 points and missed 4 layups. Basically, that sums up the game.

Offensive Rebounding Percentage
UCSB: 19.5%
UCI: 27.4%

When you look at our offensive rebounds on the face of it, we did a decent job. However, when you look at how many defensive rebounds UCI got (31), it's ridiculous that we couldn't get any more rebounds.

The Gauchos managed 19 defensive rebounds. Weak.

Free Throw Rate
UCSB: 61.7
UCI: 52.5

Throw this stat out the window. Prior to this game, UCSB was one of the top 10 free throw shooting teams in the country at about 76%. During the game, UCSB went 16-29 from the line for a paltry 55.2%. If you give the Gauchos a 75% free throw performance in this game, they make 5 more free throws. Combine that with the missed lay-ups and the opportunities were there.

Justin Joyner was the primary offender in this category.

Turnover Percentage
UCSB: 16.9%
UCI: 35.3%

The Gauchos did a great job of forcing UCI into turnovers. However, they didn't convert many of the 23 turnovers into points. That hurts.

That's it for this analysis. Looks like we'll have to wait and see where we're going in the NCAA, I mean, NIT.

Friday, March 14, 2008

Big West Semifinal Preview: UCSB vs. UCI

UCSB Gauchos vs. UCI Anteaters
March 14, 2008 5:30 p.m. (PST)



Whether you fear the Anteaters or not, today is the day of reckoning for the Gauchos. They face the only dragon (or anteater) they've yet to slay this season. UCI beat the Gauchos on January 10, 66-63. The Anteaters beat the Gauchos again, on February 9, 65-59.

This is the ultimate test for the Gauchos. If they want to get into the NCAA Tournament, their mission is simple: win two games and you're in. Therefore, we see how bad the Gauchos want it tonight. Second, we can see if Bob Williams has learned anything from this season's two losses to UCI. Specifically, Bob Williams has allowed his team to play right into the hands of UCI by playing the sloooooowest pace (the pace the Anteaters want).

TGM's recipe for sucess is simple. Bob, you need to run the Anteaters out of the gym. I don't care if you're not comfortable with that style. The Gauchos are better suited for that style than the Anteaters.

Why do we make said recommendation? Take a look at the Game Flo, courtesy of midmajority.com, from UCI's match-up with Pacific last night. If you looked at that chart, you'll notice that each half UCI started out very hot and increased their margin of victory. However, what you'll also notice is that the Anteaters flattened out substantially as each half wore on. When a team flattens out like that at the end of each half, I'd say that's a pretty clear indication they were getting tired.

Another reason for the recommendation? UCSB needs to show the Anteaters that the Gauchos will be controlling tonight's game. Mike Tyson once said, "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face." Never has something so complex been said so simply. We know what Irvine's plan is. They want to walk the ball up the court. Especially since they've played three games in three days. Forcing them to run is the equivalent of punching them in the face. Surely, UCI's coaches know that they dictated the tempo the last two games. It would be foolish to think that they don't believe they can't control the pace this time around. Therefore, the Gauchos need to induce maximum confusion by forcing the tempo. Press, push the ball on offense, etc...

An additional benefit of not letting them walk up the court is that the Anteaters are going to be tired, don't let them regain their energy. Please watch the youtube clip (specifically, the energy bar) to understand what I mean.



Clearly, Alan Beast and Tony Rhodes want to continue punching their guy when his energy is at his lowest. He can't defend himself as well and you're more likely to knock his ass out. If you punch him once, let him recoup, it's like you never punched him at all.

The last benefit of the recommendation is completely psychological. Irvine has beaten the Gauchos twice this season. If you let them stay in the game early, Bob, UCI will get this little thing called confidence. They will believe that they can hang with your team, Bob. The more hope you give them, the less their lack of energy counts. Show them that they can't play with their big bro. Have no mercy.

Now, onto the stats.

Effective Field Goal %
UCSB: 52.7%
UCI: 51.9%

We've already chronicled to death the fact that Irvine wants to play slow. IF UCSB allows UCI to dictate the pace (God help them), they need to make their three point shots to extend the defense. This will open up the post.

Tonight, the post men will be key. Not only do they need to keep Fells in check. But Devine, Elliot and Nedim (no 3's Nedim) need to be a three man wrecking crew. Sprinkle a little Gibb in there and you can make that a 4 man crew.

The key is controlling the pace. Don't play slow. Make UCI play fast. Put the fear into them. They don't want to run, so we want them to run. Make it happen, Bob.

Free Throw Rate
UCSB: 25.7
UCI: 24.7

Bottom line to this: Don't send them to the free throw line. If you do, make sure you get there more than they do. UCI is a great free throw shooting team. They're going to make you pay if you send them to the line. Fouling them in the act = bad idea.

The first game, we did a good job, we sent them to the line 10 times, we went 11. The second game, not so good. They got to the line 22 times, we got to the line 11 times. That very well could have been the game right there, considering they made 8 more free throws than us. Of course, six of those free throws came at the end of the game when we started intentionally fouling.

Offensive Rebounding %
UCSB: 28.8%
UCI: 26.4%

We're not very good here. Just don't give them second chance shots. The last couple times we've match-up, the offensive rebounds have been pretty close. However, defensively, they've cleaned up the glass compared to us.

Turnover Rate
UCSB: 21.3%
UCI: 19.0%

UCSB has one of the highest defensive turnover percentages. To maximize this, push the ball up the court. UCI doesn't turn it over much because they walk the ball up the court. When they are doing this, it's fairly difficult to make a turnover. Force them into playing faster and you might force a couple extra turnovers.

That's it folks. Like all of you, I'm hoping for the Gauchos to pull it off tonight. If they can beat the Anteaters, then it's one more game and the Gauchos will have made the tournament, so we can start doing this:

Thursday, March 13, 2008

Big West Semis Are Set: UCSB vs. UCI Tomorrow


Irvine has beaten Pacific 57-56. You know what that means - the Gauchos will face off with Irvine tomorrow at 5:30 p.m.

The Gauchos have some demons to excise in this game. Irvine has beat them twice this season. Third time is a charm. I like the Gauchos. They appear to be playing well. Tomorrow, we'll post an analysis on the game for your enjoyment.

Also, check the post below that looks at the factors that correlated most with Gaucho victories.

Season Stats

At the end of the regular season, I wanted to examine UCSB's season long performance and see what factors were most indicative of success in the Gaucho's games. As a regular reader of Sunday Morning Quarterback, a college football blog, I like the idea they do in the off-season of the Stats Relevance Watch which can be found here.

The purpose of the Stats Relevance watch is to see what stats most correlate with winning during the previous season. In the link above, SMQ looks at the Big 12. In each comparison, SMQ uses 13 team stats. SMQ records its ranking this way: If the winning team outgained its opponent in total yards, that category was marked as a "victory" for the winning team. Conversely, if the winning team is outgained by the losing team in total yards, it's marked as a "loss" for the winning team.

What I did was go through the Gauchos games and look separately at the games they won and the games they lost. As most of you know, TGM mainly utilizes the "new age" stats from places like kenpom.com, however, this time we looked at 17 plain vanilla team stats (no percentages or anything crazy, just from the boxscore). As you'll see below, I decided what stat was better in a category (less fouls is better than more fouls) and used that stat as the barometer. If UCSB was the "better" team in that category, I gave them a yes (which is the equivalent of a "win"). I eliminated ties, so not all categories are equal. Enjoy.

Category W-L %
More Assists 21-2 91.3%
Halftime Lead 19-2 90.5%
Higher Field Goal % 19-3 86.4%
More Field Goals Made 18-3 85.7%
Fewer Turnovers 15-4 78.9%
More Made 3 Pointers 14-6 70.0%
More Free Throws Made 14-8 63.6%
More Defensive Rebounds 14-8 63.6%
More Players with Playing Time 8-5 61.5%
More Steals 12-8 60.0%
Fewer Fouls 12-9 57.1%
More Total Rebounds 12-9 57.1%
More Free Throw Attempts 11-10 52.4%
More Field Goal Attempts 10-11 47.6%
More Blocked Shots 8-10 44.4%
More Offensive Rebounds 6-15 28.6%
More 3 Point Attempts 5-17 22.7%

The most interesting stats in this whole project were the bottom ones. For the whole season, I've been harping on the Gauchos to shoot more three pointers and get to the free throw line more often. Of course, the stats aren't lying. Those stats had very little to do with the Gauchos winning.

I don't know what to make of the stats at the top. However, it seems to suggest that when the team is passing the ball to their open teammates, they have more success. Also, halftime lead seems to be a big indicator of success for the Gauchos this year. Make what you want of these stats, they are here for your enjoyment. Spread the word if you like.

Below, you will find the stats and rankings from the 7 losses the Gauchos endured (not the best sample size, but that's a good thing, right?). Same rules as above. I didn't flip the stats around. If the Gauchos had fewer turnovers, it was marked as a yes (and consequently, a "victory"). The only difference is that we started these stats from the bottom up.

Category
Higher Field Goal % 1-6 14.3%
More Free Throws Made 1-6 14.3%
More Free Throw Attempts 1-6 14.3%
More Defensive Rebounds 1-6 14.3%
More Total Rebounds 1-6 14.3%
Fewer Fouls 1-5 16.7%
More Field Goals Made 1-4 20.0%
Halftime Lead 2-5 28.5%
More Assists 2-4 33.3%
More Players in the Game 2-4 33.3%
More Offensive Rebounds 3-3 50%
More Blocked Shots 3-3 50%
More Steals 3-3 50%
More 3 Pointers Made 4-3 57.1%
Fewer Turnovers 5-2 71.4%
More Field Goal Attempts 5-2 71.4%
More 3 Point Attempts 6-1 85.7%


Read into these stats what you want. I'm not quite sure what to make of them. However, it's interesting to see what stats were most indicative of a Gaucho win and which were most indicative of a Gaucho loss.



Big West Tournament: Day Two

We have our first final from tonight's two games in Anaheim. Fullerton beat Riverside 81-69. That means that the Gauchos will face the winner of the 8:30pm match-up between Pacific and Irvine. Tomorrow, CSUN and CSUF will match-up at 8:00pm.

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Big West Tournament; Day One

Day One of the Big West Tournament is in the books, folks. In Game 1, Irvine beat LBSU 77-63. In Game 2, Riverside took out Cal Poly.

Tomorrow, CSUF will take on Irvine in the early game at 6:00 p.m. Pacific will take on Riverside at 8:30 p.m.

The Gauchos play Friday at 5:30 p.m. against the lowest remaining seed. The seedings of the teams playing tomorrow is below.

#3 CSUF
#4 Pacific
#5 Irvine
#7 Riverside

For those of you wondering, UCSB swept Fullerton and Riverside in conference play. The Gauchos got swept by Irvine and split the series with Pacific (UCSB won the away game). As a result, most people probably don't want to see the Anteaters on Friday and I don't blame them. However, one truism that I believe is true (uhh...is that a truism?) is that it is very difficult to beat a team three times in one season. In high school I saw it happen in two different Section Championships with the same teams in two consecutive years. The Section winner was swept in the regular season by the Section loser, so read into that what you may. Also, the Super Bowl Champion, NY Giants? They lost to the Dallas Cowboys twice in the regular season before beating them in Dallas during the playoffs. What does that mean? I don't know, but I suspect that the losing team has two tapes to see what they did wrong and then they can learn not to do anything bad they did in either game.

Honestly, TGM is rooting for a Riverside victory tomorrow, but that isn't likely. Why? Pacific has beaten them twice this year. I forgot to caveat my three times rule. It only applies to good teams, which I assume UCSB is. Riverside is not. I don't necessarily think it's a bad thing for the Gauchos to face the Anteaters. At this point, it's balls to the wall baby. You're the number one seed for a reason and you need to play like it.

In fact, the team I'm most scared about playing is Pacific. I don't know why, but those Tigers scare me.

So folks, pick your poison. There's only three teams we can possibly face, UCI, UCR and Pacific. Pick who you like us to beat and root for them in tomorrows quarterfinals.

Also, I'm working on an excel spreadsheet to release tomorrow or early Friday morning on the Gauchos season. So check back early and often starting tomorrow, I promise it's going to contain some good information that you might actually find useful, unlike the rest of this blog.

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

The Gaucho Invitational?

Every once in a while I get a really good idea. This morning, it just so happened that an idea came to me regarding Gaucho basketball.

A while back, I posted a dream schedule. The goal of the schedule was to give us enough quality non-conference games to (1) help us recruit better; (2) give us a shot at an at-large tourney berth if we don't win the Big West Tourney; and (3) give us some exposure. The plan was that we could schedule just enough "big boys" and some of the better mid-majors to give us a shot at improving our lot in the basketball world.

Now, back to my idea. If you recall, one of my suggestions was to make sure the Gauchos attend at least tournament in the pre-season because a tournament counts as one game, no matter how many you play. The idea dawned on me: UCSB should put on a Gaucho Invitational each year. Hey, if Chaminade (Maui is nice, but so is SB) and University of Alaska can do it, why can't the Gauchos?

What better way to excite the student body than to invite some of the big boys to the Gaucho Invitational? If you invite 7 of the top teams in the country and have an 8 team tournament (and give each team 3 games), the student body would be stoked. Can you imagine if the likes of UCLA, Kansas, Duke, Gonzaga, Pittsburgh, Florida, Texas, Michigan State, etc... showed up at the Thunderdome? The place would be nuts!


I realize that UCSB probably wouldn't be able to get all those teams, every year. However, I bet a lot of the Midwest and East Coast teams would be dying for a trip out to Santa Barbara. It's cold out there and it's mild here in October (or whenever the tournament would be held).

A second advantage (I alluded to above) is that a tournament field with those teams would ensure student interest in the team. If you get the ball rolling early in the season, you can energize the fan base and keep them coming back. Besides, who wouldn't want to see a team play that has national championship potential? The Gauchos could rig the schedule, so they get the weakest team in the first round (just kidding). Regardless, I think this idea is terrific.

The third major advantage I can see to hosting a tournament is money. That's the name of the game, right? The tournament surely would generate television fees, advertising fees, ticket sales and concessions. Not to mention that the whole Santa Barbara economy would benefit. A lot of the more popular teams (see: UNC, Duke) have a loyal fan base who will travel to see their team play. This is money that the athletic department could use to finance other teams, better locker rooms, more recruiting, the list goes on and on.

I don't know much about hosting an event of this magnitude, except for a couple of parties my roommates and I threw back in the day, so I don't know about how hard and what negatives there are to an event like this. However, it sure seems like the positives outweigh any negatives.

If anyone familiar with the workings of such an event knows why or why not an event of this size could happen, I'd love to hear from you. Leave a comment.

Monday, March 10, 2008

Big West Tournament

The seeds and schedule have been set. People are making their predictions and The Gaucho Manifesto is getting ready to make its picks for the Big West. In a blatant case of homerism, we declare UCSB the winner (if you don't like it, start your own blog). Be sure to participate in the super scientific and official Big West poll to your right.

First, the regular season standings:

1. UCSB 12-4
1. CSUF 12-4
1. CSUN 12-4
4. Pacific 11-5
5. Irvine 9-7
6. Cal Poly 7-9
7. UCR 4-12
8. LBSU 3-13
9. Davis 2-14

The Big West Tournament Seedings:

#1: UCSB
#2: CSUN
#3: CSUF
#4: Pacific
#5: Irvine
#6: Cal Poly
#7: UCR
#8: LBSU
#9: Just kidding, Davis was so bad they wouldn't let them in the tournament (really, the #9 seed doesn't make it)

Schedule:

All games at the Anaheim Convention Center

Round 1 Wednesday, March 12
Irvine vs. LBSU, 6:00pm
Cal Poly vs. UCR, 30 minutes after conclusion

Round 2 Thursday, March 13
CSUF vs. Lowest remaining seed, 6:00pm
Pacific vs. Highest remaining seed, 30 minutes after conclusion

Round 3/Semis Friday, March 14
UCSB vs. Lowest Remaining Seed, 5:30 pm
CSUN vs. Highest Remaining Seed, 8:00 pm

Finals Saturday, March 15, 8:00pm ESPN2

What others are saying about the Big West Tourney?

Basketball Prospectus actually gives CSUF the best chance to win the auto bid.

ESPN Bracketology which just seems to pick the regular season conference champ, likes the Gauchos.

Come back this week for all sorts of nifty features and analysis as the Gauchos prepare for the Big West Tournament. Before I let you go, keep in mind the Gauchos mission for the week: every game is important. Go Gauchos

Sunday, March 9, 2008

UCSB at LBSU Recap

Congratulations to the Gauchos who pulled off a victory yesterday afternoon against the 49ers to get themselves the #1 seed headed into the Big West Tournament. The Gauchos new mission: win two games and you get an NCAA Tournament berth.

Now, let's talk about yesterday's game. It was a weird game indeed, especially the last 5 seconds of overtime. First, LBSU fouls Chris Devine with less than half a second left in the first overtime. Devine misses his first free throw. Then, in an attempt to ice Devine, Dan Munson, LBSU's coach calls a timeout. The problem? He doesn't have any timeouts left. That inexplicable gaffe allowed the Gauchos to get two more free throws courtesy of the technical foul.

The game was played at a pace of 59, which is surprising because LBSU isn't one of the slower teams in the Big West. Offensively, the Gauchos scored a 105.4 on the efficiency meter and allowed LBSU to register a 102.4. Although their defense was it's typical turnover causing machine, the Gauchos allowed LBSU to stay in the game (although I think it was more due to really good streaky shooting by one Donovan Morris.

Effective Field Goal Percentage
UCSB: 57.8%
LBSU: 54.4%

This is where the Gauchos allowed the 49ers to stay in the game. The Gauchos had a great shooting day and so did the 49ers. Unfortunately, the Gauchos pulled it off due to, basically, one more three pointer. This game was very evenly matched, from the Free Throws to the three point shooting. Not much to say except LBSU matched us with every shot except for a couple.

Offensive Rebounding Percentage
UCSB: 27.7%
LBSU: 22.6%

Another good performance on the offensive glass by UCSB. Although they only pulled down 6 offensive boards, it was still almost a 30% of the potential offensive boards they could get. The Gauchos have been improving in this area lately and TGM likes what he sees. Again, Devine and Nedim had solid rebounding games. Keep this up during Big West fellas.

Free Throw Rate
UCSB: 53.3
LBSU: 55.6

The Gauchos went 18-24, the 49ers 19-25. Good job getting to the line and making your shots, gentlemen. The only complaint was we need to attack the basket at a greater frequency and get to the foul line even more. Still, if you would have told me I'd be complaining about 24 attempts a couple of weeks ago, I would have said you're crazy. Such is the life of a fan.

Turnover Percentage
UCSB: 27.1%
LBSU: 21.1%

This is the area that really allowed LBSU to stay in the game. LBSU had 16 turnovers, the Gauchos had 18. This was actually one of the highest turnover percentage games that the Gauchos had all season. So, be thankful the Gauchos were able to pull out the victory. They still did a good job on the defensive end by forcing LBSU into 16 turnovers.

As you can see, this game was a lot closer than it probably should have been. In fact, I think it's been the most even game all season that I've seen. However, the impressive thing is that the Gauchos pulled off the victory when they could have folded. Now, it's onto a week of waiting to find out the fate of the Gauchos. Anything less than a NCAA Tournament berth should be considered a disappointment. TGM has faith in the Gauchos and likes their chances to advance.

Saturday, March 8, 2008

UCSB at LBSU

March 8, 2008
UCSB Gauchos vs. LBSU 49ers
4:00 pm (PST)

Blogger has been acting up this morning, so unfortunately, it's been difficult trying to post. Fed up with this problem, I'm posting what everyone already knows.

Without beating around the bush, the Gauchos need to win today, there is nothing else to it. Win = #1 seed. Lose and you've got problems.

Also, Channelsurfing.net has the game listed on their site, so check it out.

Go Gauchos

Friday, March 7, 2008

UCSB at CSUN Recap

With a 77-66 victory over the Matadors, only a victory over the Long Beach State 49ers stands in the Gauchos way of getting a #1 seed in the Big West Tournament. While watching the game, my initial thoughts were that the Gauchos looked very good most of the time, but made some silly mistakes at points in the game. Looking at the box score was even more impressive.

This game was played to a pace of 73. The game seemed slower because the Gauchos got to the free throw line 39 times, slowing the pace. The Gauchos were efficient with a rating of 104.9, and held CSUN to a rating of 90.0. Truth be told, I expected UCSB's offensive rating to be much higher because they seemed to be so much more efficient.

Effective Field Goal Percentage
UCSB: 54.3%
CSUN: 45.0%

UCSB looked good on offense last night. This was the first time (that I noticed) the Gauchos off-the-ball players moving around and setting picks. This was especially evident early in the first half when the Gauchos seemed to get easy lay-up after easy lay-up. UCSB did a good job of finding the man down low and working the ball out and around the key when necessary.

The Gauchos made 7 of 18 three pointers for 38.9%, while holding CSUN to 5-21 (23.8%). The Gauchos hit the three pointers when they were open and didn't appear to force too many three pointers. A few of the CSUN three pointers came from NBA range, which is an indication of the defensive effort the Gauchos put out.

Free Throw Rate
UCSB: 83.0
CSUN: 62.0

After the game, I was very impressed with the number of times the Gauchos got to the line. They put CSUN into foul trouble early and took advantage in the second half. The only problem was the first half free throws. The Gauchos had the bonus early on, but didn't appear all too interested in attacking the hoop and getting to the line (of course, that could have been a result of the wide open lay-ups they were getting).

The second half was a different story as the Gauchos got to the line 30 times (39 total in the game). If UCSB shot their normal 75% (instead of 66.7%), this victory would have been more impressive. Paul Roemer was the main offender going 1-5, as everyone else shot well from the line. Their free throw shooting prowess paid off in the end when the Matadors were forced to put the Gauchos on the line and they made them pay.

Offensive Rebounding Percentage
UCSB: 25.4%
CSUN: 22.4%

This was the second area I was really impressed with. Early in the game, the Gauchos were getting to the glass and seemed to be swiping everything in sight. Although they gathered three more rebounds than CSUN, this was as impressive a performance as I've seen. Everyone got into the act, led by Mr. Harris' 7 boards.

Turnover Percentage
UCSB: 19.1%
CSUN: 24.5%

This category would have been much higher save for a couple really bad Gaucho decisions. All in all, UCSB did a good job of forcing turnovers and making CSUN play to their style. For once, the Gauchos seemed to impose their defensive style on the Matadors and it paid off with some nice turnovers, especially to start the game.

It was a good victory for the Gauchos and I'm looking forward to Saturday's afternoon matchup with the 49ers.

Thursday, March 6, 2008

3/6/08: UCSB at CSUN

UCSB Gauchos (20-7, 10-4) at Cal State Northridge Matadors (18-8, 11-3)
March 6, 2008, 7:00 pm (PST)



TV: Channelsurfing.net says they will have the game tonight.

Here is the preview from Basketball Prospectus.com which has this as one of their games of the night.

For those of you who missed yesterday's post, here's the nitty gritty. UCSB is in firm control of their destiny. If they win these next two games, the Gauchos take possession of the #1 seed in Big West Tournament play. Lose one game and it's up to the basketball gods to decide what seed the Gauchos receive.

Last time the Gauchos and Matadors met up, the Matadors came away with a close victory (88-84) courtesy of Deon Tresvant's hot hand. Tonight, let's hope the outcome turns out different. The Matadors were slightly better in most of the categories we care about (last match-up).

As everyone is well aware of by this point, UCSB will copy the pace their opponent wants to play. CSUN plays at a pace of 75.0 possessions per game and on their January 5 match-up, the two teams played to a pace of 78. From an efficiency standpoint, UCSB is sitting right around 103 per game, while CSUN is about even with the Gauchos. Of CSUN's 5 slowest paced games, CSUN has lost 4 of them. Maybe the Gauchos should consider slow playing the Matadors tonight.

CSUN is a very good team defensively, which is what makes them so dangerous. They play a fast pace with good defense. See below for the preview, but that combination always makes for a dangerous match-up for anyone.

Let's look at how they match up.

Effective Field Goal Percentage
UCSB: 52.1%
CSUN: 51.7%

UCSB clearly gets their edge from their three point shooting. If those shots fall, the Gauchos stand a good chance at winning tonight.

Turnover Percentage
UCSB: 21.1% (offense)
CSUN: 21.4% (offense)

Defensively is where this battle will be won. CSUN is the 14th rated team by Turnover Percentage, while UCSB is 3rd in the country. The team that is able to hold onto the ball (Yes, Nedim, that includes you) will stand a clear advantage as both teams use turnovers to their benefit.

Offensive Rebounding Percentage
UCSB: 28.6%
CSUN: 33.2%

No surprise here as the Gauchos are one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the country. They're also horrible on the defensive end, which means that CSUN will have plenty of opportunities unless someone mans up tonight and locks down the defensive glass. If they don't, this game could get ugly. If they do lock the glass down, this could give the Gauchos the edge they need.

Free Throw Rate
UCSB: 24.5
CSUN: 23.4

For being the 10th best free throw shooting team in the country, UCSB does not do a good job of getting to the line. They are in the lower echelon of the nation in this category and they're sending their opponent to the line a lot (consequence of their defense). All this means the Gauchos better hit their free throws when they get there. Getting to the line will help the Gauchos in a couple of ways tonight. First, the game will be played at a quick pace (most likely) and UCSB probably doesn't have the depth to compete. Getting to the line will give their teammates a breather. Second, it will slow the game down and allow the Gauchos to set up the defense they want. Third, it will give them a moment to clear their minds from the rapid pace of the game and get some instructions from the bench (on second thought, maybe #3 isn't a good idea).


With that being said, TGM wants the Gauchos to take the Matadors down. This game will be close, no doubt, but TGM has faith in the Gauchos. Lots of fans are planning on making the trek. This could turn the Matadome into a virtual Thunderdome. TGM isn't in the prediction business, but I belive the Gauchos can pull it off. Good luck, and god speed men!

Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Winning the Big West

After posting my rant on how the Gauchos must NOT choke tomorrow because I want them to finish as regular season champs, I decided to find out what that means for the Gauchos. In other words, does winning the Big West regular season title translate favorably to an NCAA Tournament berth (i.e. their chances of winning of the Conference Tournament). Below are the results of my findings, courtesy of statsheet.com. If the tournament champ was not the regular season champ, the tournament champs regular season rank is in the parenthesis.

2006-2007
Regular Season Champ: Long Beach State
Tournament Champ: Long Beach State

2005-2006
Regular Season Champ: Pacific
Tournament Champ: Pacific

2004-2005
Regular Season Champ: Pacific
Tournament Champ: Utah State (2)

2003-2004
Regular Season Champ: Utah State, Pacific
Tournament Champ: Pacific

2002-2003
Regular Season Champ: UCSB
Tournament Champ: Utah State (3)

2001-2002
Regular Season Champ: Utah State, Irvine
Tournament Champ: UCSB (three-way tie for 3rd)

2000-2001
Regular Season Champ: Irvine
Tournament Champ: Utah State (2)

1999-2000
Regular Season Champ: Utah State
Tournament Champ: Utah State

1998-1999
Regular Season Champ: Boise State, New Mexico State, UCSB
Tournament Champ: New Mexico State

1997-1998
Regular Season Champ: Pacific
Tournament Champ: Utah State (2)

1996-1997
Regular Season Champ: Pacific, Utah State, Nevada
Tournament Champ: Pacific

In 6 out of the 11 years used in the "study," the regular season champ took the automatic bid. Those other 5 years, it was either a #2 or #3 seed which took the auto bid. While this is by no means scientific, the probabilities slightly favor the #1 seed, and it's not by much.

One interesting thing to note is that in the years Utah State took the tournament berth (in which they weren't the #1 seed), they had a better overall record than the regular season champ (despite a worse conference record). We'll see if that bodes well for UCSB, who have the best overall record in the Big West.

Of all the possible outcomes from the last two games, UCSB stands a good chance of getting the #1, #2 or #3 seed. Using the evidence from above, there is nothing to suggest that UCSB doesn't have a legitimate chance at winning the Conference Tournament.

Masters of Their Own Destiny

By now you are well aware that UCSB now controls their fate for the chance to be the Big West regular season champs. It's as simple as this; win two games (CSUN and LBSU) and you're the #1 seed. But is it really that simple? After all, Bob Williams has a tendency to let Gaucho Nation (that's right bitches, we're a nation!) down with a depressing performance when the big time comes calling.

TGM wants the Gauchos to win and does not root for the Gauchos to lose. With that being said, I have come to temper my expectations over the years. If I've learned one thing, it's that Bob let's me down when my hopes are the highest (more on this to come).

However, getting these two wins isn't as easy as it seems. Allow me to invoke some history. If you recall in November, the Ohio State Buckeyes were sitting pretty as the #1 ranked team in the BCS standings. All they had to do was beat an ok Illinois team at home on November 10, then they had a showdown with Michigan the following week. Michigan, if you recall, started off their season horribly, losing to Appalachian St. and Oregon. These two games looked like a cakewalk. Win and the Buckeyes are in the National Championship Game whether you like it or not. Lose and you need some serious help. If you have forgotten the outcome of the Illinois game, here is the ESPN recap.



Now you remember that Ohio State lost and they needed a miracle to earn the right to get their ass kicked in the BCS Championship Game.

What am I trying to say? UCSB better bring the wood tomorrow night baby! That's what I'm sayin'! I'm sick of these excuses and lame performances when it counts (see our last two televised games, Utah St. and Irvine). They need to show up and wreck some CSUN fools! Send CSUN back to their crappy campus whilst you bask in the glory that is IV on Thursday night.

Really, though, the Gauchos need to win these two games. They need this first place seed. Not because it really matters, but because it's a psychological boost. The rest of the chump-ass Big West will realize that UCSB is for real if they storm back and take first place with two straight victories.

If UCSB doesn't win both of these games, I will never ever give Bob Williams the benefit of the doubt again. These two games will be a testament to the desire of the entire team and to see how bad they want it. If Bob can't get these guys ready for these two games, he'll never be able to.

My prediction: the Gauchos take the title with two victories.

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

UCSB vs. UCR Recap

First off, my apologies to the three remaining readers I have on this blog. Sometimes my other career as a law student conflicts with the writing of this blog. On that note, I want to make it up to everyone with a couple extra posts this week in time for the stretch run toward the NCAA Tournament.

Obviously, by now, you should have heard that UCSB beat Riverside 73-55 on Saturday night. What you might not know is that UCSB now controls their own destiny for the #1 seed in the Big West Tournament (There will be a blog on this later). It's simple, beat CSUN and LBSU and you get the #1 seed; lose and you need help to get that #1 seed. To me, this is a true test of the Gaucho coaching staff and players. If they can't pull this off, they lack the requisite intensity and desire to dominate in basketball.

As always, we like to talk about pace around here. If you recall, a couple of weeks ago, TGM analyzed the Gauchos performance ("pace-wise") against the three slowest teams in the Big West: Riverside, Davis and Irvine. The Gauchos have a tendency to play sl0oooooooooooooow when their opponent plays sloooooooooooow. Of course, some things never change; the sky is blue, the sun rises in the East and I'm still a good looking guy (we like to butter our toast around here when necessary). As one would expect, the Gauchos played a pace of 58 versus the Highlanders. Five of the Gauchos six games against the above three teams have been played at a pace of 60 or lower.

Impressively enough, however, the Gauchos still managed to reel off 73 points, courtesy of James Powell's billion three pointers. From an efficiency standpoint, the Gauchos had their most efficient game of the season with a 124.7 (of course, this is a major reason why they scored 73). If the Gauchos can keep their efficiency above the 110 mark, it will be difficult for them to lose in the Big West Tournament.

Let's take a look at the Four Factors

Effective Field Goal Percentage

UCSB: 64.3%
UCR: 45.1%

For the second go-round with Riverside, the Gauchos had an EFG% around 64%. Obviously, they have the Highlanders' number, despite the slow play. This number was helped tremendously by the Gauchos 11-19 three point shooting performance.

Free Throw Rate

UCSB: 26.5
UCR: 61.0

Riverside's high score in this category was a result of getting to the line 25 times. The Gauchos went 10-13 from the line to prove to us all that they haven't lost the magical free throw stroke.

Offensive Rebounding Percentage

UCSB: 39.6%
UCR: 36.5%

YES!!! The Gauchos won the battle. UCSB gathered a higher percentage of their offensive rebounds than UCR. Unfortunately, we don't have a stat (or at least, I can't find one) that gives me second chance points. On the negative side, the Gauchos gave up 10 offensive boards.

Turnover Percentage

UCSB: 22.2%
UCR: 25.6%

If there is one thing you should have learned about the Gauchos this season, it's this: they are one of the best turnover percentage teams in the country on the defensive side. UCR turned it over a little under UCSB's average, but one quarter of their possessions turning into a turnover is nothing to scoff at.

On the offensive side, Ivan Elliot was a turnover machine for the Gauchos, coughing it up 4 times. On the plus side, Nedim had a turnover free game for the second consecutive time. His Globetrotter passes have taken a back seat.

One other thing to note. This is the first game, in a while, that I recall the Gauchos playing more than 7 players 10 minutes or more. 9 players hit the 10 minute mark or higher, while Beau Gibb had 7 minutes. I don't know if it's a coincidence that the Gauchos played so well when so many of the players got playing time, but it's something that I would advocate Bob Williams to continue in the future.