Chameleons or Gauchos?

As promised yesterday, TGM is going to rip off a couple posts today in honor of Wednesday. Over the last couple weeks, TGM has noticed a trend that the Gauchos play to the pace of their opponents. I'm going to toot the TGM horn a little bit and point out that no one (that I've heard of) has made this observation. It's a first.

We've analyzed the Big West Conference numbers (from kenpom.com) to see how pace is played by each team. We've compared the Gauchos to the rest of the Big West in an effort to see if they really mirror their opponent's style.

Average Pace/Game (ranked by pace, highest to lowest): All games are 10 games, unless noted

CSUN 72.7
CSUF 71.4 (11 games)
Pacific 65.4
LBSU 65.1 (11 games)
Cal Poly 64.9
UCSB 64.7
Davis 63.3
UCR 63 (9 games)
Irvine 62.3

Next, we took UCSB's game-by-game conference performance to see how they stacked up pace-wise. In parenthesis is the average pace that their opponent likes to play (from above).

1. LBSU 68 (65.1)
2. CSUN 78 (72.7)
3. Irvine 60 (62.3)
4. CSUF 73 (71.4)
5. Cal Poly 67 (64.9)
6. Pacific 63 (65.4)
7. Davis 53 (63.3)
8. UCR 60 (63)
9. CSUF 67 (71.4)
10. Irvine 58 (62.3)

The problem with the pace numbers is that 7 of the 9 teams are very close. As a result, we can't say with certainty that UCSB is deviating from their average pace and playing that style imposed by their opponent. Obviously, when the season is over, we'll have a much better comparison because we can compare the pace from the first game to the pace of the second game.

You'll have to take my word for it because I'm going to go through and post the numbers on here, but UCSB has the widest deviations of pace than any other team in the Big West.

What I did do, was go through each team and count out how many games they've played according close to pace. Again, the problem with this stat is that the numbers probably aren't going to vary widely because 7 of the 9 teams play a very similar pace. However, this should give us an accurate reflection.

CSUN (72.7): 8 of their 10 games have been played at a pace of 71 or higher. Clearly, they want to run and get as many possessions as possible. In their only two "below" games, UCR (65) and Pacific (66), they were still able to push them over their conference pace average. Clearly, the Matadors impose their style of play on their opponent more so than any other team in the Big West. Consequently, that's probably why they're tied for first.

CSUF (71.4 (11 games)): 6 of their 11 games were above 70. Their other 5 games, interestingly, have all been played at a pace of 67, which is still pretty close to the pace they want to play. They've still managed to make each opponent play above their normal pace which means they're imposing their style on the other team.

Pacific (65.4): They've played two games at a pace above 70 and you can guess who those two games were against. However, they've played no game at a pace in the 50s. All their games have been played in a range of 60-68.

LBSU (65.1 (11 games)): Two of their games have been above 70, do you know who they were against? CSUN and CSUF. Again, no games in the 50s, all in the 60s.

Cal Poly (64.9): They've played one game in the 70s against Northridge. Rest of their games have all been in the 60s.

UCSB (64.7): Two games have been in the 70s against CSUN and CSUF. They've had two games in the 50s against Davis and Irvine (Who, arguably, would be playing a much slower pace if they could (or had the personnel to)). Davis and Irvine are two of the three slowest teams in the Conference. The remaining 6 games have been in the 60s. They played Riverside, the third of the three slowest teams, at 60. The faster the team plays on this list, the faster UCSB has played. The Pacific game is the anomaly on the list with a pace of 63.

Davis (63.3): Two games in the 70s. Two games in the 50s. The rest of their games in the 60s. However, Davis has played a pace in those games of 61, 62, 60, 64 and 62. Looks like Davis is trying to walk the ball up the court, which is pretty much what they do.

UCR (63 (9 games)): One game in the 70s against CSUF. Two games in the 50s against Davis and Irvine. The rest of their games in the 60s come in at 62, 65, 61, 67, 60, 62. These guys just want to play slow as well.

Irvine (62.3): Two games in the 70s against CSUN and CSUF. Two games in the 50s. Rest of their 60 games are 60, 66, 62, 60, 60, 60. Looks like these guys have an aversion to playing fast.

NOW, FOR THE GRAND CONCLUSION!!!!

As you can see, the numbers aren't as clear cut. However, one trend emerges. UCSB plays the pace of their opponents. Their two fastest games have come against the two fastest opponents in the league. The Gauchos have played the three slowest teams, UCR, UCI and UCD, four times thus far, and they've played their 4 slowest games of the season (60, 53, 60 and 58). Obviously, the numbers confirm the fact that UCSB takes on the tempo of their opponent. Ultimately, this is not a good thing because UCSB can't take advantage of their biggest strengths on a consistent basis.

Maybe Bob Williams will read this and do something about it. Chances are, he won't.