February 7, 2008, 7:00 p.m. (PST)
ChannelSurfing.net says that this game will be on their site tonight. Open up your Internet Explorer at 7:00 and check it out.
The Gauchos look to extend their two game winning streak (yeah, that's right, two games baby!) against CSUF at the 'Dome. Fullerton is currently the second place team in the Big West. More impressive is the fact that they are the only team to beat first place CSUN thus far in conference play.
On January 12, UCSB and Fullerton matched up at Fullerton with the Gauchos getting a 87-72 victory. In that match-up, UCSB shot a phenomenal 64.8% from the field and held the Titans to 33.9%. The two things that worried yours truly about the game was the amount of offensive rebounds CSUF was able to pull down and the free throw discrepancy.
As to the offensive rebounds, UCSB allowed Fullerton to grab 18 offensive boards. If this was any other night where the Gauchos weren't shooting so well, this could be cause for concern. 18 second chance opportunities is far too much to be giving up.
The free throw discrepancy was insane. CSUF went 25-31 from the line, while UCSB was 8-9. There was not a huge fouling discrepancy, so the Gauchos seemed to have lacked some quality defense in this game. This cannot happen again. UCSB has to get to the line more than their opponent and take advantage of their free throw prowess.
Let's check out the Stat Comparison
Shooting Percentage
UCSB: 45.7%
CSUF: 46.8%
Offensive Rebounds
UCSB: 9.1/game
CSUF: 12.2/game
Free Throws
UCSB: 287-367, 78.2%
CSUF: 287-409, 70.2%
Steals/Turnovers
UCSB: 15.3 turnovers/game; 18.7 opponent turnovers/game
CSUF: 14.8 turnovers/game; 17.8 opponent turnovers/game
If you're like me, you're slightly nervous heading into this match-up. The Titans appear to be doing just about everything, except free throw percentage, a little better than the Gauchos.
The problem with this match-up is that the Titans are virtual statistical twins of the Gauchos. They've shot about 70 more three pointers than the Gauchos this season and hit them at about 40%. They get to the free line more often, although they make less of their attempts (this is negated if they get to the line more often though).
According to kenpom.com, Fullerton plays at the 10th fastest (adjusted) tempo in the land (75.1 possessions/game). UCSB plays at 67.6 possessions per game. Lately, the Gauchos have allowed their opponents to dictate the pace they play at. If the trend continues, look for UCSB to push the ball up the court. If that is the case, this will be Exhibit #1 for why Bob Williams needs to put more depth into the squad.
The last time the Gauchos played Fullerton they played at a pace of 73 possessions. They were also extremely efficient, with an offensive efficiency of 118.0 (one of our best of the season). Fullerton played one of their least efficient games of the season, having an output of 97.6.
Look for the game to be played at Fullerton's pace. The Gauchos need to take care of the ball and shoot the three extremely well. They need to limit Fullerton's offensive rebounding opportunities and prevent them from getting to the line. This is the kind of game that I would like to see UCSB play night in and night out. Tonight, will be a nice experiment to see how the Gauchos perform.
I don't normally predict against the Gauchos, and I'm not sure which way the score is going to go. However, I will say this. If CSUF wins, I think it's going to be a blowout. If UCSB wins, it's going to be a close one. Read into it what you may, but I think I'd favor the Titans slightly in this one. As much as it pains me to say that, I sure hope I'm wrong.
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