December 22, 2007, 10:00 a.m. (PST)
This Saturday, marks the first time in a long time that the Gauchos have played the #1 team in the land. When was the last time that happened? They last played the #1 ranked UNLV Runnin' Rebels at the 'Dome. What happened? UCSB won.
If UCSB is to pull off the upset this time, they are going to need their stellar 3 point shooting (#3 in the nation) and get to the line to take advantage of their excellent free throw percentage (#4 in the nation).
I see this game as a high paced affair. For those of you who don't know, Roy Williams is a religious follower of points per possession. He wants his teams to be above 1.0 points per possession. His teams typically have one of the highest points per possession in the nation. They try to push the ball and score while in transition. According to kenpom.com, UNC averages 77.2 raw possessions per 40 minute game. That's good for 8th in the nation. UCSB comes in at a measly 70.3 raw possessions per game (111th in the nation).
As you can probably figure it out, UCSB is going to have to employ their pressure defense (ranked 27th by kenpom.com) to reduce the Tar Heels' chances to score. UNC averages about 18 turnovers/game while the Gauchos force about 30. Somethings gotta' give.
If UCSB shoots the ball well, limits turnovers, and reduces UNC's scoring opportunities (isn't that the case for every underdog?), I like their chances to keep it close.
I respect UNC, but I'm going to point something out here. The Tar Heels may be feared (and rightfully so), but their schedule isn't anything to be amazed at. With a kenpom.com SOS of 115, it's nothing to be impressed about. Of course, playing in the ACC will help that, while playing in the Big (Little) West won't. I can say with complete honesty that the only win I'm impressed with is their victory over BYU. Ohio State isn't that good, neither is Kentucky (in fact, to put it blunt, they suck), and the only teams they've blown out are the same teams that UCSB would have blown out. Don't be scared by the name on the jersey, it's just some guys in white jerseys playing basketball.
This is the game that UCSB needs to prove themselves (and get some respect in the polls). Every other team in the Mid-Major Top 10 is receiving votes in the Top 25. The knock on our beloved Gauchos is the strength of schedule. The only worthy team that UCSB has played is Stanford (considered a middle-tier Pac-10 team), losing by 19. I thought this game was a little closer than the score suggested, which is what the Gauchos need to remember. They've also beaten UNLV, a team that is not as strong as they were last year. However, if UCSB keeps the game close and pulls off the victory (look for the video of me streaking naked on youtube, if so(Do you really think I'm going to streak?)) or loses, I believe they start to get some respect.
Regardless, if UCSB wants to strike some fear into the hearts of their foes, they need to beat the Heels. Enough of Hansbrough screaming every time he shoots it (and the refs buying it by sending him to the line), and enough of this Tar Heel love.
Do the UNC fans even know what it feels like to have tar on their heels? I doubt it, but anyone who has gone to UCSB knows what a real tar heel is (I know smart ass, it's not a heel).
This will be a big win for the Gauchos if it really happens. Even if they keep it close, I think this will give the Gauchos the kind of buzz that we at TGM crave. The kind that draws some better recruits to the 'Dome and some more students to the games. This is what we need Coach Williams, don't disappoint the Gaucho Nation.
Here are the links to the scouting reports from Ken Pomeroy (www.kenpom.com):
UCSB: http://www.kenpom.com/sr.php?team=UC%20Santa%20Barbara
UNC: http://www.kenpom.com/sr.php?team=North%20Carolina
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