Shot Selection

This morning, on basketballprospectus.com, I came across an interesting article on shot selection from Ken Pomeroy. You can find the link below.

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=191


Here is a look at the chart they came up with. It's really fuzzy, but click on the link to see the real deal. The red line is the shots per game on average from each game. The x-axis represents the distance from the hoop. The blue line represents the percentage each shot is made from each distance.

As Ken Pomeroy points out, coaches guarding the three point line religiously and forcing players to shoot the mid-range is likely a very good strategy. It forces players to shoot in an area they aren't all that comfortable with.

For my three loyal readers, you know that I'm an advocate that the Gauchos should allow the horrible three point shooting teams they play to huck up the three with reckless abandon. However, after reading Ken Pomeroy's piece and seeing the data, TGM is in the process of reconsidering that position.

The problem with the Gauchos, though, isn't their defense. In fact, their defense has a 26.9% turnover percentage, which is phenomenal. According to kenpom.com, that puts the Gauchos at #2 in the nation. Turnover percentage equalizes teams who play faster pace with slower paces. As a result, it's an objective measure that determines how good you really are on defense.

So, while this chart is awesome, the problem that needs to be fixed is the Gauchos offense. How do we do that? Well, my suggestion is to go back through this blog and see what you think. Hint: it involves shooting the three, driving to the basket for close range shots and getting to the free throw line.

Excuses...

There goes an old saying that goes like this: an excuse is like an @**hole, everyone has one and they all stink. Too many excuses have been made for the Gauchos poor performance on Friday night. To those who make excuses TGM says bullshit!

Those who say the game doesn't or didn't matter must have been or are smoking crack (or some other variation). Sure, the game can be considered an out of conference "distraction" because the team is fighting for a Big West seed. Of course, these people haven't taken their rose tinted glasses off long enough to realize that the UCSB has been dusted each time it's played a tournament worthy foe, save UNLV. This game did matter, why? For starters, UCSB is playing a horrendously weak schedule this year (TGM concedes that it is difficult to determine who will be "good" a year or two in advance). A victory over Utah State may not have made their RPI jump into the stratosphere, however, it would have given the Gauchos some ammo and belief that they can run with a tournament worthy foe. Second, what better motivation heading into the Big West final lap than a beatdown of Utah State? A victory like that provides confidence going into your next fight. Third, of all the Big West teams to play over the weekend, only UCSB and LBSU got beat around by their opponent. That, my friends, is a serious downer.

Then there are those who say that the Gauchos played 4 games in 9 days. To that, TGM says, poor Gauchos. Last time TGM checked, the team consisted of 18-25 year old athletes in prime condition. They play a sport that requires them to run a lot of distance. If they got tired they should go try out for the baseball team; I hear they don't do much running. This excuse is an even bigger crock of shit than the game didn't matter. If you're making excuses for the Gauchos now, what are you going to be saying when it's Big West tourney time?

There are multitudes of other excuses that have emerged from the woodwork over the course of the season, but for time reasons, TGM can't go into all of them. Silly reasoning can also be lumped into this category. One of the most absurd reasons is the one that some people throw out by saying that Bob Williams is just the man to lead us out of our despair. How many seasons of mediocrity must we endure before these people have had enough? Just because he's led the Gauchos to the NCAA Tourney exactly once in his ten year career proves nothing. If you play the odds long enough, you're going to hit the jackpot once in a while (except for the lottery).

Obviously this is more of a venting post. Some people may think the reasons above are perfectly valid excuses. Some may agree with TGM. You're each entitled to your own opinion and TGM respects that (although TGM thinks you're an idiot if you don't agree with TGM).

BracketBuster Recap

TGM spaced out on Friday thinking the BracketBuster game was on Saturday. However, when TGM hit up the gym Friday night, he was shocked to see that the game was taking place in front of his very eyes.

Needless to say, it was a disappointing loss with the Gauchos going down in flames 72-59 to Utah State. The Gauchos always seem to play their worst on the "national" stage. Don't believe me? See Stanford, UNC and now Utah State. When I say "national," I mean games on television or against a well-known opponent. Three of the Gauchos three worst offensive efficiency rated games have come against said three opponents. Either the boys need to grow balls and turn into men or our coaches need to learn the definition of "big game."

From an efficiency standpoint, the Gauchos registered an 89.6. Utah State managed a 109.3, good for seventh best on the season against the Gauchos. To digress slightly, at least the Gauchos are consistent. The Gauchos have allowed 9 opponents to register 100 or higher on the efficiency scale. 7 of those 9 worst defensive performances have resulted in our losses. For those of you keeping score at home, we have 7 losses on the season.

Let's look at the Four Factors and see how miserable our performance was.

Effective Field Goal Percentage

UCSB: 41.1%
USU: 58.3%

UCSB was right around their three point percentage average with a 9-23. Unfortunately, they ran into the EFG% juggernaut that is Utah St. Taking away USU's three pointers (4-10), they shot 22-38 from inside the three. When they weren't busy torching us from inside the arc, they went to the line and killed us with 16-21.

Kudos to Alex Harris and James Powell for being the only dudes who showed up. If it wasn't for those two, an NAIA team (Westmont, anyone?) probably would have kicked our ass. Meanwhile, I'm pretty sure I saw a milk carton with a missing person's ad with Chris Devine's picture. Devine was the epitome of horrible, going 1-8 from the field, no free throw attempts, 1 rebound (not bad for a 6-9 forward) and 3 turnovers in 19 minutes. Seriously, when I saw that line, I thought they had confused Nedim for Chris Devine because there was no way (at least I thought) that he would have a line like that. Not to mention (this is really an assumption because I don't know), his counterpart on the Utah side, Tai Wesley, went 10-14 from the floor, 4-8 from the line, 9 rebounds, and 3 turnovers in 31 minutes. That, my friends, is the type of game where you can insert any AND 1 slogan and it will work. Take notes, son.

Free Throw Rate

UCSB: 17.7
USU: 43.8

UCSB got back to their normal percentage range on Friday. The problem? The problem was that they went 8-11, while sending Utah St. to the line 21 times. The embarrassing thing is that none of our forwards got to the free throw line once. I believe a couple midgets put in at forward could have gotten to the line at least once. That is about as pathetic a performance as you're going to see from the forwards. Whatever the opposite of mad props is, that's what I'm saying to the forwards tonight.

Offensive Rebounding Percentage

UCSB: 23.0%
USU: 29.4%

At first glance this stat isn't that bad. However, consider that Utah St. shot 54.2% from the field and 57.9% from inside the arc. Basically when Utah wasn't owning our defense, they were getting offensive rebounds. Of Utah State's 22 misses, they managed to snag 7 offensive boards, leaving 15 to the Gauchos.

Of UCSB's 41 misses, the Gauchos managed to get 9 offensive rebounds. This was the lone bright spot (kind of like finishing in last place, but still getting a medal) for the forwards.

This is one of the two stats that I've resigned our fate to. The other being free throws. Either the team is completely incapable of getting to the free throw line more than 15 times a game or the coaches don't tell them to get there, hence the players don't care. Same thing for offensive rebounds. Bob Williams needs to go to East Lansing when his season ends in mid-March and beg Tom Izzo to sit in on his practices and watch his players duke it out in rebounding drills. Then Bob needs to acquire some football pads and helmets for his players and make them fight each other for rebounds. Basically, rebounding comes down to how tough you are and how bad you want it. If you're a weakling and don't give a shit, then you're probably not going to grab a board. Want it more than the other guy and most of the time you'll win the battle.

Turnover Percentage

UCSB: 12.2%
USU: 24.3%

Actually, TGM was a little harsh earlier. This was another good spot for the team. They were able to double Utah State's turnover rate, as compared to UCSB's. In fact, the Gauchos only had 8 turnovers, which is quite impressive, compared to the 16 of USU.

That's all for the game analysis. Basically, we can sum the game performance up in two words: we sucked. Sometimes the truth hurts, but you gotta learn sooner rather than later. However, not all is doom and gloom for the Gauchos as they are still fighting for their lives in the Big West with three games to go. Get a #2 seed and they may have a chance at making the NCAA Tournament. Operative word is may.

UCSB at Pacific Recap

20 wins. This is a nice accomplishment for the Gauchos. However, this 20 win season will be discounted in the eyes of many if the Gauchos fail to make the NCAA Tournament.

Last night was an impressive win. In case you failed to read TGM's preview (below), we weren't too confident that UCSB would pull out with a victory. TGM enjoyed a nice serving of humble pie today.

Last night's victory was important for multiple reasons. First, this victory put the Gauchos in sole possession of third place. With a match-up against Northridge, the Gauchos have a chance to help themselves in the standings if they take care of business. Second, while the final score was close, the Gauchos were able to keep a commanding lead for a majority of the game. Third, the Gauchos offensive output was not good. Despite that, they persevered and came out with a victory.

As said above, the Gauchos 98.8 efficiency rating on offense and held Pacific to 87.2. Regardless, they salvaged victory with a convincing win.

Effective Field Goal %

UCSB: 53.4%
Pacific: 45.8%

The Gauchos didn't spend much time hucking up the three last night. Instead, the focused on attacking the hoop inside the arc. Everyone was very efficient if you look at their total field goal percentages.

On defense, the Gauchos were aided by a 1-10 performance from Steffan Johnson. Most of the other Tigers were efficient.

Free Throw Rate

UCSB: 45.5
Pacific: 39.6

TGM is really proud of this line (sort of). The Gauchos got to the line 20 times. TGM is now slightly worried because UCSB shot 65% from the line again. No one was atrocious, but they need to get back to their solid FT shooting ways.

Offensive Rebounding Percentage

UCSB: 28.6%
Pacific: 43.8%

Again, one of the Gauchos biggest weaknesses was exploited again last night. Pacific gathered 14 offensive boards, while UCSB had 8. It's probably too late to change this nasty habit, but they really need to focus on it, if possible.

Turnover Percentage

UCSB: 24.7%
Pacific: 29.6%

The Gauchos did a good job of forcing turnovers last night. Unfortunately, the committed a couple turnovers themselves.

Interestingly, the Gauchos played at a pace of 60 last night, which is about 5 possessions slower than Pacific wants to play (according to conference numbers). While they weren't at the 100+ efficiency mark, I'll take this victory.

Next up is a tough match-up with Utah State in the Bracket Buster dealy-o.

2/20/08: UCSB at Pacific

UCSB Gauchos (19-6, 8-4) at Pacific Tigers (17-8, 8-4)
February 20, 2008, 7:00 p.m. (PST)



TV: Channelsurfing.net says that they will have the game.

The Gauchos are on the home stretch of the Big West regular season play. UCSB has four Big West games (including tonight's match-up), plus a Bracket Buster game on Saturday against Utah St. These final four games will go a long way to determine how many games the Gauchos get to play before their inevitable semi-final elimination (that occurs every year).

Effective Field Goal Percentage

UCSB: 52.6%
Pacific: 55.9%

Believe it or not, but Pacific is the 6th rated team (kenpom.com) when it comes to effective field goal percentage. What does this mean? UCSB will have to do a stellar job on the offensive end. Last time we met up with the Tigers, the Gauchos let the Tigers have an efficient day, registering a 111.6.

UCSB, on the other hand, had an inefficient day, coming up with a 91.2. That's not going to cut it tonight. Pacific has lost two in a row and they had their worst defensive performance of the year on Saturday by letting CSUF register a 126.3. Two things can happen after a performance like that; continue with their third crappy defensive performance or turn the intensity and mess the Gauchos up. Let's hope it's #1 because I don't have much faith in a Bob run team to overcome #2.

Free Throw Rate

UCSB: 24.9
Pacific: 32.4

This is Pacific's second biggest strength, as they are 13th in Division I. UCSB is going to have to keep the Tigers off the line, while increasing their chances at the line. Last game, against Davis, the Gauchos did a great job getting to the line. They were unable to convert, but I think that's an anomaly.

Offensive Rebounding Percentage

UCSB: 29.0%
Pacific: 32.2%

UCSB has to keep the Tigers off the board and work on getting their own offensive boards. This is UCSB's biggest weakness. They are a bad offensive rebounding team and allow their opponents to get a lot of offensive boards. If they can channel their inner Dennis Rodman, the Gauchos have a good opportunity to pull off the victory.

Turnover Percentage

UCSB: 21.3%
Pacific: 23.6%

Finally, an area where the Gauchos have a statistical advantage! Neither the Gauchos nor the Tigers are particularly good at keeping their turnovers down. The flip side of this is the Gauchos 4th ranked defense in this category. If they can take advantage of the Tigers propensity to turn the ball over, they can push the ball and get some easy buckets.

Tonight, I want a Gaucho win (like everyone else). However, TGM is feeling very skeptical today because this is the same type of situation that Bob's teams in the past have let us down. The Gauchos have an opportunity to lay claim to sole possession of third place since I don't even know when. I don't want to get my hopes up if the let-down occurs. Therefore, there will be no prediction, but I think this will be a tough game for the Gauchos to come out with a victory. If they can emerge with a win, they should feel good about themselves and where they stand in Big West.

Mid-Major Top 25

This poll has turned into nothing more than a mockery in the eyes of TGM (can a blog have eyes?). It's such a silly poll that makes so little sense, I humor myself every Monday when it comes out. If nothing, it gives me a good laugh to see how ridiculous the poll is.

UCSB rose in the rankings to #17, up from #20. CSUN, the Big West first place squad, moved up six spots to #12. Fullerton finally moved into the rankings at #18, right behind the Gauchos. Pacific fell out of the MM25 this week.

Another week, another silly poll

UCSB vs. Davis Recap

UCSB improved on to 8-4 in conference play with last night's 77-73 victory over the Aggies from Davis. Although this score was close, UCSB made this game much closer than it had to be. The Gauchos played some uncharacteristic ball last night by shooting poorly from the three point line (it's gonna happen sometimes) and some poor free throw shooting. Below is the game flow chart, courtesy of statsheet.com. From the looks of the chart, you'll notice that UCSB never relinquished their lead, which is nice to see from the team at this point in the season.

NOTE: I had to delete the Chart, as it was abnormally humongous and taking up a huge part of the site. You can head over to statsheet.com to check out the game flow chart.

From an efficiency standpoint, the Gauchos had their fourth most efficient game of the season with a rating of 118.2. Defensively, the Gauchos had their third worst performance with a rating of 112.0. While the offensive performance is clearly something to get excited about, the defensive performance should have you worried. I'm willing to chalk up the performance to one bad game, however, anytime you let an inefficient Davis rack up a 112.0 on you, you should be worried. For reference, it was Davis' sixth highest offensive output of the season, putting us up there with LaVerne (Who?), Presbyterian (Who?), Portland St. (Who?), Irvine (Who?, Just kidding) and Pacific.

Effective Field Goal Percentage

UCSB: 56.4%
Davis: 60.5%

Believe it or not, but this was our seventh highest effective field goal percentage performance of the season. This is cause for celebration because the Gauchos shot 4-15 from the arc. All this means that the Gauchos headed to the hoop and got them some two pointers like they were going out of style.

On the other hand, UCSB allowed Davis to get a higher percentage on the floor. This was likely the effect of the Aggies' three point shooting. All told, the Aggies shot 8-22 from beyond the arc.

Free Throw Rate

UCSB: 43.6
Davis: 55.8

This stat really surprised me for two reasons. First, it was nice to see the Gauchos get to the line 24 times. I'm sure they've been to the charity stripe that many times in a couple of games, but I can't recollect any games in recent memory. Secondly, I was surprised because the Gauchos shot an uncharacteristically poor percentage from the line, going 15-24. I consider this a one game aberration and believe they'll get back on track this week.

Offensive Rebounding Percentage

UCSB: 43.6%
Davis: 28.6%

For once, the tables are turned! Maybe Bob Williams lit a fire under their ass. Maybe the players drank some crunk juice. I don't know, but whatever the players did (and Davis didn't), the Gauchos need to keep up the good work.

I know Davis didn't have Michael Boone in the middle, but I still believe the Gauchos have the power to rebound like madmen. Most importantly, they kept Davis off the offensive glass.

The Gauchos gave themselves a lot of second chances in the game which is always nice to see. If anyone out there has a second chance point stat, I'd love to see it. You can leave me a comment.

Turnover Percentage

UCSB: 18.4%
Davis: 26.1%

Davis committed 17 turnovers, as compared to the Gauchos 12. Not exactly a whopper of a differential, but if you consider the fact that 12 of the Aggies 17 turnovers came from UCSB steals, you have to be impressed.

Our guards were a little high on the turnover side again, but the overall performance of the Gauchos was a pretty good game.

In wrapping up tonight's review, I wanted to point out a couple of other things. For the past couple weeks, we've been harping on the Gauchos inability to control the pace. The Davis game presented an interesting case study because they play at such a slow speed. While UCSB wasn't exactly playing lights out, they seemingly pushed the pace because they ended with a pace of 65. Not bad considering their last game was played at a 53.

One thing of concern is the lack of minutes that the bench is receiving. TGM has always been a big proponent of playing as many players as you can to create depth. It's our opinion that you do so by playing guys an average of about 10+ minutes a game. The Gauchos have been getting seven or eight guys 10+ minutes a game over the course of the season. The problem with this strategy will surface during the Big West Tournament (Mark my words). If the Gauchos end up playing back-t0-back-to-back games, they could experience some extreme fatigue. The other problem with this is foul trouble. When someone gets into foul trouble, who can Bob turn to? As stupid as it sounds, the players who get these minutes won't have the confidence and Bob won't have it in them. That's enough for tonight.

See you back on Monday.